【作者】 盛敏；

【导师】 张庆洪；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 改革开发以来，我国保险业得到快速发展且呈加速增长态势，业务规模迅速扩大，保险深度和保险密度不断提高，在国民经济中的地位与作用不断加强。但就我国的现实情况来看，我国人寿保险市场发展失衡，一方面是供给市场的迅速发展，另一方面是消费市场发展的严重滞后，基本上是一种供给导向型。了解和把握我国目前寿险市场消费者的行为倾向和困绕保险消费者选择决策的行为习惯及真实需求在一定程度上已经成为我国保险业健康发展的重要因素。论文主要是对我国保险消费选择行为的有限理性特征进行了分析和实验检验，并在此基础上提出了对保险经营企业和政府相关决策部门的政策建议。首先对有限理性的概念和内容进行了比较系统的梳理和评价；对消费选择行为的主要模式及其决策标准进行了探讨；对不确定性决策的发展进行了消费选择决策角度的讨论和评价；对保险消费选择行为的特征进行了较为系统的研究。从经济学的角度对保险及其消费的本质作了明确的界定，提出了保险消费选择决策是不确定性条件下的价值判断和选择决策；其次运用传统经济学的期望效用理论系统分析了理性的保险消费决策模式；运用行为经济学理论分析我国保险消费的有限理性行为；从现实的保险消费行为特征与理性的保险消费模式的反差，提出我国保险消费选择行为有限理性的假设。在文献研究和调查汇总和分析的基础上，提出我国消费者的保险风险认知和消费决策存在着经验性偏差；提出我国保险消费选择行为存在着偏好逆转；提出我国消费者保险消费选择行为决策存在着银行储蓄框架效应的假设；运用行为经济学中关于有限理性的几个著名实验原理设计了保险风险认知和选择的经验性偏差实验；保险价值判断和选择的偏好逆转实验；保险消费选择行为决策的储蓄框架实验；并通过实验检验论证了理论分析推导提出的假设。最后对保险消费行为有限理性的成因和影响进行了一定的分析和探讨，着重分析了我国的传统文化和制度文化对保险消费行为有限理性的影响；在此基础上对我国保险企业的营销发展提出了“理性引导和感性服务”营销构想；对政府提出了“培育市场和政策扶持”的政策建议；让保险为提升我国民众的生活质量、构建和谐社会做贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the reform and open door policy, China has experienced a rapid development in the insurance industry. The market scale has been expanded, the insurance depth (percentage of insurance expense vs GDP) and insurance density (average insurance expense per person) has been increased. Insurance industry has been an important part in the national economy. But in fact, the development of China’s life insurance is unbalanced. On one hand, the supply part dominates the market and the supply market is well developed. On the other hand, the consumption of life insurance is insufficient and the demand market is not well developed. To understand barriers for real demand and consumers’ real behavior would be the keys to the development of China’s insurance industry.This paper focus on the analysis and experimental study to verify Chinese consumer’s insurance consumption behavior. On the basis, some useful suggestions are proposed for the management of insurance companies and for government policies and regulations.Firstly, the paper reviews the concepts and contents of bounded rational model and discusses the standards of consumer’s decision-making. Development of uncertainty decision-making theory from the consumer’s angle is discussed and assessed. The study of the paper is based on a more systematic combination of the characters of insurance consumption behavior. The paper also defines the nature of insurance and consumption from economic perspective. The finding is that insurance consumption selection is a value judgment and selection process under uncertain circumstance.Secondly, decision-making process of insurance consumption under the rational assumption is analyzed using the expected utility theory. Analysis is also made for the bounded rationality behavior of China’s insurance consumption market. Assumptions are proposed based on the bounded rationality model of insurance consumption selection behavior in China. Based on literature review and survey analysis, it is found that experience dependency, value preference reverse and bank saving frame are existed in the insurance selection behavior process in China. Three experiments are designed and tested on the basis of some famous theories in behavior economics, such as experience dependency of risk recognition、 value prefer reverse and bank saving frame. The analysis of the three experiments shows that the decision-making process of insurance consumption in China has clearly bounded rationality characters.According to the testing results, factors influence the bounded rationality model especially the traditional culture and institutional culture are discussed. Suggestions and operational advises are presented for insurance marketing so to help insurance industry to contribute more to the Chinese national economy.更多还原