【作者】 郑燕；

【导师】 乞建勋； 黄元生；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（河北） ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 基于构建和谐社会、实现可持续发展的需要,我国越来越重视投资项目的后评价研究及应用。电力行业的后评价,近几年才开始初步研究,公认的成果尚不多见。本文试图从研究后评价的方法体系入手,对电力投资项目的后评价问题作些探讨,并结合实际进行例证研究,以便为决策部门提供可能的参考。论文主要的研究内容:第一章:回顾国内外投资项目后评价的开展状况及研究水平,针对现有问题,提出本文的研究内容及研究思路。第二章:对项目后评价的指标和指标体系展开了全面的分析与研究。第三章:从电网项目和电源项目两类投资项目入手,对电力投资项目专项后评价的四个方面展开分析。第四章:总结归纳综合后评价的理论、方法及模型,探讨综合后评价的合理性问题。第五章:对实际的电力投资项目进行后评价,旨在检验本文研究后评价体系的有效性和科学性。第六章:总结全文,归纳创新点,提出今后的研究方向。论文主要有以下创新点:1、从认识论和价值论的角度探讨了电力投资项目后评价的本质和特征。2、在研究电力投资项目后评价中常规预测方法优缺点的基础上,提出了自适应的趋势预测模型。3、建立指标权重模型时,对层次分析法提出了改进,并结合改进AHP和熵权法提出一种变结构权重模型。4、首次将梯度理论引入到项目评价中来,提出用梯度理论的思想指导评价指标的选取和权重的设置。5、通过研究专项后评价与综合后评价的相关问题,建立了电力投资项目后评价的方法体系。6、对实际的电力投资项目进行完整的后评价,包括指标体系的建立、权重设置、评价模型的建立及定性定量相结合的评价方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the need of establishment of harmonious society and persisting development, our country pays more attention on post-evaluation of investment project. But in the electric power industry, pilot study is carried on in recent years, and recognized research results are less. This paper starts from study methods system of post-evaluation, discusses the post-evaluation issue of electricity investment project, and takes an example combined with practice to provide some references for decision-making department. The main study contents are:In the first chapter, the development status and study level of post-evaluation of investment project inside and outside country are reviewed, and the main contents and study thoughts are put forward aiming at problems in existence.In the second chapter, comprehensive analysis and research are opened up around the index system of project post-evaluation.In the third chapter, starting from the electric network project and power supply project, the four main parts of post-evaluation on electricity investment project are analyzed.In the fourth chapter, the theory, methods and models of comprehensive post-evaluation are summarized and concluded, and rational problems of comprehensive post-evaluation are discussed.In the fifth chapter, post-evaluation on actual electricity investment project is carried on as to prove the validity and scientific quality of doing research on post-evaluation system.In the sixth chapter, the full paper is summarized, innovative points are concluded, and the study direction for the future is brought forward.The main innovative points of this paper are:1. The nature and features of post-evaluation on electricity investment project are probed into in the view of epistemology and axiology.2. On the basis of advantages and disadvantages of routine forecast methods of post-evaluation on electricity investment project, auto-adaptable trend simulationforecast model is put forward.3. AHP method is improved during the establishment of index weight model, and a flexible weight model is advanced combined improved AHP with entropy method.4. Gradient theory is introduced in the project evaluation for the first time. This paper advances that gradient theory can be used to choose indexes set up weights.5. By studying the correlative problems of special post-evaluation and comprehensive post-evaluation, the method system of post-evaluation on electricity investment project is established.6. The complete post-evaluation is carried on actual electricity investment project, including the establishment of index system, setup of weights, establishment of evaluation model, and choose of evaluation method combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis.更多还原