【作者】 杨光辉；

【导师】 曾五一；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文根据人口学的有关理论,运用统计方法和实际的统计数据,对我国人口老龄化的进程及其对产业结构的影响,进行了比较全面和系统的分析和研究,并在此基础上,提出有关政策建议。本文着重从以下几个角度进行研究:第一,系统地阐述了人口结构对产业结构有深远影响的观点。人既是消费者,又是生产者,因而人口结构状况及其变动,会从供给和需求两个方面影响着产业结构。第二,建立人口预测模型,利用最新资料,确定模型参数,对中国未来65年的人口规模和结构进行了分析预测,进而分析中国人口老龄化的变化趋势,展现中国人口老龄化的阶段性特点。分析表明,中国人口规模将在2020年达到接近14亿的最高峰;中国人口性别比失调现象将日趋严重,如不采取有力措施,10多年后将导致严重的社会问题;目前,中国人口年龄结构还处于社会抚养率较低、劳动力比较充裕的“人口红利”时期,但到2020年人口老龄化问题将逐渐凸显,2020-2034年为老龄化的快速发展阶段,老龄人口比重将在2059年达到顶峰。第三、从需求角度分析人口老龄化对产业结构变动的影响。人口年龄结构的变动,必然带来消费需求及其结构的变动,从而直接对生产消费品的产业结构产生影响,并间接对为消费品提供中间产品的产业结构产生影响。此外,由于人口老龄化导致社会保障支出快速膨胀。为造就一个适合老年人生活、居住的社会环境,使老年人保持晚年身心健康的各种政策和措施也都会对产业结构调整发生重大的影响。未来中国老年消费市场将十分庞大,2020年中国老年消费需求将占总消费额的17.2%。第四、从供给角度分析人口老龄化对产业结构变动的影响。人口年龄结构的变动,必然使劳动力的数量及质量发生变化。未来几年,中国劳动力资源将继续增加,2010年将达到9.4亿人。此后开始回落,到2035年左右回到目前的规模水平。劳动力年龄中位数则将从2000年的33.6岁,迅速提高到2020年的40.5岁,2040年提高到43.8岁,此后,劳动力资源将面临短缺且老化的趋势。本文还比较了人口与产业结构的关系,指出钱纳里模型参数与中国产业结构变动模式存在较大差异。并根据中国的数据,推算出中国“标准”产业结构的变动趋势。分析表明,随着人口总量增加和GDP的提高,中国第一产业产值比重将持续下降;第二产业产值比重先升到2016年50.83%的最高点,然后开始下降;第三产业产值比重从2000年的33.88%逐步上升,2039年后成为三次产业中的最大产业,2060年达59.82%。第五、从区域经济发展的角度分析人口老龄化的影响。在中国,由人口年龄结构压力所引发的经济产业结构的变化,一般是通过各区域经济的不平衡增长表现出来的,并进一步表现为人口迁移流动和区域城市化的发展,进而对各区域人口老龄化发展的进程产生影响。反过来,各地区需要依据所处的人口形势,对区域经济产业结构进行适时的调整。只有区域产业结构经过合理调整和转换,才能从根本上解决人口老龄化所带来的各种问题。经济产业结构的调整与人口老龄化的发展是相互影响、相互制约的,是区域经济发展重要影响因素的两个方面。第六,从城市化角度探讨人口老龄化与区域产业结构调整的关系。通过对中国未来城市化进程与未来人口结构特点和产业结构的发展趋势进行比较,探讨中国人口老龄化进程中城乡的差别,城市化发展与产业结构变迁的关系,以揭示产业结构的发展变化规律,并突显区域产业结构发展中的差距,进而为产业结构调整指明方向。考虑到中国人口空间分布的不平衡特点,本文还从区域人口老龄化的角度探讨中国各地区的人口年龄结构与产业结构的关系,对区域人口经济特点进行划分,对各地区的产业就业结构和产值结构进行比较,分析各地区未来人口的迁移变动和产业结构优化的方向。第七、为进一步认识中国人口老龄化后产业结构的发展态势,本文针对受人口老龄化直接影响的医疗与生活服务行业、食品与生活用品行业、房地产行业、旅游行业、教育行业做了较深入的探讨。第八、妥善地应对人口老龄化问题,需要人口政策、产业政策和区域政策的协调,本文对有关的人口和产业政策的制定和实施,提出了自己的建议和看法。本文所研究的内容属于人口经济学中一个比较新的领域即老年人口经济学。通过统计方法与统计数据的利用,不仅使本学科在研究的广度和深度上,上了一个台阶,而且也为统计学开辟了一个新的应用领域。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper according to the relevant theories of demology, application statistics method with substantial evidence data, proceeded relatively all-around research and the analysis of the system on population ageing’s progress and the influence of the industrial structure in China , and put forward the correlative policy suggestion on the foundation .This paper research emphases on the follow points of view:The first, this paper expatiated systematically the standpoint that the population structure make the profound influence to the industrial structure. Human is a consumer, as well as is producer, therefore, from two way of supply and demand, this paper point out that population structure condition and its fluctuation will influence the industrial structure.The second, this paper establish the population forecast model, with the latest data, ascertain the model parameters, analysis and predict the population scale and structure of future 65 years’ in China, then analyzing the variety trend of ageing population in Chinese, and revelation the stage characteristics of population ageing in China. The results show that Chinese population scale will reach to near 1.4 billion of most high peak in 2020. The phenomenon of proportion of infant of China will become serious gradually, if without and potent measure, the sex ratio will cause social problem seriously after more than 10 years. Currently, the population age structure is still on good placed in the lower society dependency ratio ,and in abundant labor force or "population bonus" ,but turns to 2020 ,the ageing in population problem will highlight gradually, and ageing turn will go to the fast development stages in 2020-2034,the proportion of old population will reach to the peak in 2059.The third, on point of demand view, this paper analyze the ageing in population influence to change of industrial structure. Structural fluctuation in age in population, will bring consumption need and its structural fluctuations by all means, then directly, to affect the industrial structure that producing consumer goods, and indirectly, to affect the industrial structure that provide the middle product for the consumer goods. In addition, because the ageing in population turn the expenditure of social security fast inflation. Any policies to keeping with human’s environment life and live in for old population, and keeping with the good mind and body healthy for old population, will influence the industrial structure and it’s adjustments. The consume market of old population will become immensity in future, the proportion of old population demand will account for 17.2% of total demand in 2020 in China.The fourth, on point of supply view, this paper analyze the ageing of population influence to change of industrial structure. The structural fluctuation of age in population, by all means, make varieties on quantity and quantity of labor force. Several year later, the labor force resources, lasting out to increase in China, will attain 940 million in 2010.Start dropping henceforth, return to the current scale level about 2035.Labor force median age then will from 33.6 years old of the 2000, quickly increasing to 40.5 years old of the 2020 and 43.8 years old of the 2040, the labor force resources will face the trend of missing and ageing. This paper compare the relation of population and industrial structure, point out the Chenery’s model parameters aren’t fit for the pattern of China industrial structure. With the data of China, this paper estimated the fluctuation trend of the "standard" industrial structure of China. The result expresses that, along with the gross population increment and GDP exaltation, in China, the proportion of primary industry output value will descent, the proportion of secondary industry output value will rises to 50.83% till 2016, then beginning descends, the proportion of tertiary industry output value will rises gradually from 33.88% in 2000, becoming behind three times in 2039 the biggest industry of industry inside, amounting to 59.82% in 2060.The fifth, on point of district economy view, this paper analyze the influence of ageing in population .In China, an economic industrial structure , resulted from the variety of the population ageing pressure, generally, performance out on the economic unbalance in district, further, performance out on the population transplant and district city’s development, then influence the development progress of district’s ageing in population. Turn over, every district, according to its population situation, adjust the economic industrial structure. There is only district industrial structure with reasonable adjustment and convert, the every kind of the population aging problem can be resolved. The adjustment of the economic industrial structure are affects and restrict mutually with populating aging development ,this is two important factors of economic development in district.The sixth, on point of urbanization view, this paper analyze the relationship between ageing in population with the adjustment of district industrial structure. Compared future progress of urbanization to the population construction characteristics with the development trend of the industrial structure in China, probe into the difference that ageing progress in China’s population inside city country, and into the relationship that urbanization with industrial structure, this paper reveal the regulation of the development of the industrial structure, and bring into the difference of district industrial structure develop inside, then indicate the direction of adjusting the industrial structure. In consideration of China’s population space distribution unbalance characteristics, From the view of ageing in district population ,this paper inquiry into relationship of the population age construction with industrial structure in various area in China, partition districts on economic characteristics in population, compare the industrial structure with the industry employment construction in various areas, analyze the direction of population migration and direction of industrial structure excellent in various areas in future.The seventh, for further approach the development situation of the industrial structure after the population aged in China, this paper aims at the medical treatment and life service profession, food and home articles profession, real estate profession, travel profession and education profession , that is turned direct influenced by population ageing, did the thorough discuss.The eighth, To reply appropriately the population ageing problem, needing the population policy, industry policy with the coordination of the district policy, this paper put forward own suggestion and viewpoint on policy establishment and put into practice relevant of population and industry policyThis paper , the contents for studying belongs to new realm inside in economics in population , namely ageing population economics. The passed exertion of the statistics method and the exploitation of the statistic data, not only make this course ascended a step on theory study with wide and depth degree, but also learns to develop a new applied realm for statistics.更多还原