【作者】 段晓晨；

【导师】 余建星；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 目前国际上前沿的全面造价(管理)理论和方法尚局限在对概念和理论的研究上,而对其方法论的研究尚无突破性进展,对其具体技术方法的研究尚十分欠缺。而国内在政府投资项目全面投资确定和控制理论和方法上处于转轨变型阶段,急需有先进的理论和方法作前导,本文从政府投资项目全面投资管理理论和方法、全面投资确定理论和方法、全面投资控制理论和方法三个方面展开了深入研究,建立适合我国国情的、符合国际惯例的政府投资项目全面投资控制模式,为从根本上解决每年近六千亿的政府投资项目“主体虚位”(body devoid)、“三超”(three surplus)、滥挪占(peculation)腐败(corruption)等顽疾,保证其顺利实施并有所节余,提供决策保证,为有关政府投资决策、管理和实施部门提供改革和运行的理论方法及决策依据。要达到以上目的,在充分把握国际工程造价管理前沿理论和国内政府投资项目改革现状基础上,借鉴国外先进管理模式和投资控制方法以及国内改革实践,本论文认为,首先,投资确定和投资控制方法必须科学化,本论文以全生命周期造价WLC、显著性成本CS、物流集成化ILS理论为基础,建立了基于非线性测算理论神经网络BPNN、模糊推理系统FIS、模糊聚类方法FC的政府投资项目全面投资确定方法模型,以及基于非线性优化控制理论Pontryagin极值原理、已获价值理论EVM、灰色预测方法GM(1,1)的政府投资项目全面投资控制方法模型;并结合案例进行了分析,分析说明模型具有较高的可靠度和精确度。其次,本论文建立了基于物种种群竟争制衡理论的全面投资组织管理理论和方法体系,认为必须从改革政府投资项目管理体制和机制着手,构建以政府投资项目建设管理局为基础的双层代建制是核心;建立内部以投资、建设、使用、监管四权分离,外部以党领导下的政府、司法、人大政协、廉正监察署各自独立、分权制衡、相互约束的内外部监督控制体制和机制是关键,建立投资项目及全社会诚信敬业机制,改革项目审批制度,实行阳光工程、国际惯例化是保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present research on international total cost management is still limited within the discussion of conceptions and theory, and has no prominent advancement on the methodology till now. And the research on its concrete and practicable techniques is also very short. The theory of total investment control on domestic governmental investment project is undergoing the great transition and in dire need of advanced theory as the director. This paper on behalf of the government plans to explore three aspects, namely, the theory of total investment organization management, the object establishment of total dynamic investment control, and the optimization of total dynamic investment control, seeks after advanced methods and builds up the mode of total investment control in accordance with the special situation of China and the international convention. The theories of TIC are beneficial to the hot problems’settlement in governmental investment projects of amounting to 600 billion per year such as“body devoid”,“three surplus”, peculation, and corruption etc, securing the smooth execution and having some surplus, and supplying decision guarantees and reform gist for governmental investment decisions, administration sectors and executants.To do so, based on the present theories and methods of the international engineering cost management and the present situation of the home reform in the government-invested projects, this paper suggests as followings.Firstly, the investment estimation and control ought to be scientific. According to the theories of WLC (Whole Life Cost), CS (Cost-significance) and ILS (Integrated Logistic Support), this paper sets up two model, one the total investment estimation model based on the nonlinear theorems like BPNN (Back-Propagation Neural Network), FIS (Fuzzy Inference System) and FC (Fuzzy Clustering), another the total investment control model on a basis of nonlinear control theorems such as Pontryagin Theorem, Earned Value Management and GM(1,1). The case analyses are made and prove that the models’reliability and accuracy are well.Secondly, the management system of government-invested projects should be reformed. It is a core to set up a double-agency system with the government-invested management bureau and contractor. Then based on the theory of species’competitive evolution, it is important to make up an inner and outer supervision system of更多还原