【作者】 仇亚琴；

【导师】 王浩；

【作者基本信息】 中国水利水电科学研究院 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 水资源作为自然资源的重要组成部分，近几十年来，其循环过程逐渐受气候变化以及日益加剧的人类活动等多种扰动因素的影响。流域水资源的动态变化及其对气候以及人类活动的敏感性使得水循环成为极其复杂的过程。因此有必要评价变化环境下水资源量，研究水资源在人类活动和自然因素影响下的规律。本文针对目前水循环特征开展两个层面的研究：一是水资源综合评价的理论和方法，二是水资源演变规律。主要研究内容如下： 论文首先概述了水资源评价的研究进展，追述了水资源演变规律的研究历程，分析了当前水资源评价和水资源演变规律存在的问题，指出分布式水文模型可为评价流域水资源量、掌握流域水资源演变规律研究提供技术支持。论文概括了作为水科学研究手段的分布式水文模型的发展历程。 论文在总结前人经验的基础上，提出了水资源综合评价的理论和方法，包括层次化水资源、循环效用以及动态评价。论文探讨了流域水循环的演化特征。在此基础上，建立了分析模型研究流域水循环要素时空演化的基本规律，主要包括：采用R／S方法分析随机性，谱分析法分析周期性，Kendall秩相关法分析趋势性，T方法分析突变性，有序聚类法分析跳跃性。为研究气候、下垫面条件和人工取用水3个主要驱动因子对水循环的影响，本文应用二元水循环模型，采用情景分析法分析。 在分析天然-人工二元水循环系统的基础上，论文介绍了二元水循环模型，该模型耦合了WEP-L分布式水文模型和集总式水资源调配模型。 以伊洛河流域为实例研究，构建了二元水循环模型。在分析模型不确定性基础上，对灵敏度较高的地表洼地最大储留深、含水层的导水系数、土壤最大含水率、河床材料导水系数等四个参数进行优选，进行模型率定。模型验证结果表明，模型构造合理，验证结果也比较理想，模型适用于伊洛河流域研究。应用该模型，对伊洛河流域水资源进行了综合评价，使人们对伊洛河的水资源有了一个全面科学的了解。论文进一步研究了伊洛河流域45年的水资源演变规律，得出了该流域的主要特征。论文利用模型分析了该地区气温和降水，下垫面条件，人工取用水对水循环的影响。 论文的最后给出了研究工作的主要结论和存在问题的讨论。指出了所提出的在高效和低效水量、生态和经济服务量以及进行水资源演变规律分析中存在的不足；水资源演变非常复杂，还有很多问题需要今后深入研究。 本文系统全面的实例研究，充分证明了理论基础、模型方法、计算过程的科学性，本文提出的水资源评价方法和对水资源演变规律的系统分析，相信能够为今后的水资源更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important part of natural resources, water resources and its cycle process have been gradually disturbed by many disturbers such as changed climate and increased human activities, etc. The dynamic change of water resources in river basin and its sensitivity to weather and human activity make water cycle become a very complex process. Thus, it is necessary to assess water resources and study the evolution law of water resources under changed climate and human activities. Aimed at the characteristics of water cycle, two aspects are researched in this dissertation: first is to establish the principle and methodology of water resources comprehensive assessment, and the second is to study the evolution law of water resources.Research progress of water resources assessment and water resources evolution is summarized and the main problem in them is also analyzed. It is point out that the distributed hydrological model can provide technique support for assessing water resources and understanding water resources evolution in river basin. Furthermore, research progress of distributed hydrological model as a study measure of water science is also summarized. The principle and methodologies of comprehensive water resources assessment is established based on the predecessor experience, which include hiberarchy, avail of cycle and dynamic assessment of water resources. The evolution characters of water resources are discussed and then the analysis models are established to study the basic special and temporal principle of water cycle factors, the models are R/S method for randomicity, chart analysis for periodicity, Kendall method for tendency, T method for abruptly change, and orderly clustering for changing point testing. Scene analysis method is applied based on distributed hydrological model to study the effect of the main driver factors such as climate, underlying surface and water use condition on water cycle.The dualistic water cycle model, combining the WEP-L distributed hydrological model and centralized water resources allocation model, is introduced based on the analysis of natural-artificial water cycle system.The dualistic water cycle model as a case study with Yiluo river basin is established. The four high sensitive parameters with maximum depression storage of land surface, conductivity of aquifer, maximum soil moisture content, conductivity of river bed are attended the optimize calculation in order to verify the model. The result manifest that the model structure is rational and the validate result is ideal. Thus the model is suitable for the Yiluo river basin. Applying the model, the comprehensive assessment of water resources is studied which will make an fully scientific explain for the water resources. Furthermore, the evolution of water resources of 45 years in Yiluo river basin is studied to gain the main characteristics. The effect更多还原