【作者】 徐永能；

【导师】 李旭宏；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 城市公共客运交通运输是城市客运交通运输业的重要组成部分,是城市社会经济发展的必然产物,是联系社会生产、流通和人民生活的纽带。我国大城市正处于机动化、城市化快速发展阶段,城市公共客运交通结构演化也正处于关键时期。今后城市客运交通能否顺利走上可持续发展之路,决定于系统全面的城市公共客运交通结构的演化的外部环境条件和内部影响因素分析,决定于整体式的城市公共客运交通发展战略,决定于城市公共客运交通调控政策。本文主要从耗散结构论和城市经济学的角度来研究城市公共客运交通结构,探讨如何在城市化、机动化和城市居民出行意愿不断发生变化情况下的城市公共客运交通结构演化机理和优化问题;研究我国大城市公共客运交通的可持续发展和公共交通资源的合理利用与配置问题,以促进城市经济与公共交通、社会环境的协调发展,而这些问题已成为我国大城市公共客运交通发展中迫切需要解决的重要课题。合理的城市公共客运交通的功能定位集中反映了城市客运交通的发展战略,论文主要研究城市公共客运交通系统内部各种公共客运交通方式的功能定位,它将直接影响到城市公共交通结构的演化历程,在我国大城市社会经济发展的不同阶段合理确定城市内部不同类型公共客运交通方式的功能,特别是合理的快速公交与轨道交通的功能定位不仅直接影响城市客运交通系统当前及未来规划年内各公共交通方式的发展趋势,而且可促进城市内部有限时空资源的合理配置和提高时空资源的利用效率。城市内部不同公共客运交通系统的功能定位及其适应性问题需要根据城市社会经济、交通政策、城市空间布局、交通基础设施水平、地理环境以及居民出行行为心理、习俗和生活水平等因素具体确定,而这些因素同时也是影响我国大城市公共客运交通结构形成与演化的主要因素。论文针对这些因素系统的进行了城市公共客运交通结构演化的外部环境条件分析和内部影响因素分析,将结构演化的外部环境条件细分为四大类:经济条件、制度条件、技术条件和市场条件,这些外部环境条件共同影响着我国大城市公共客运交通运输业的供给与需求特性,影响着城市公共客运交通系统客运量规模及其分配情况,并通过城市公共客运交通系统参与者的行为和特征表现出来。在结构演化的内部影响因素分析中,论文首先分析了城市居民出行特征,然后结合经济学的相关理论重点探讨了城市公共客运交通参与者(出行者、经营者和管理者)的经济特征。这些居民出行特征和参与者的经济特征的分析,尤其是管理者的经济特征分析将从微观层面上深刻地影响着我国大城市公共客运交通结构的变迁过程。为了分析城市公共客运交通系统各影响因素间的相互作用及系统结构演化的趋势。论文以公共客运交通系统客运量作为状态变量,引入耗散结构理论的一些基本思想和基本方法,依据耗散结构自组织理论和公共客运交通系统结构演化特征,建立了公共客运交通客运量的竞争与协调演化模型,并利用Matlab程序模拟分析了我国大城市公共客运交通结构在不同参数变化情况下的演化趋势和多方式有机协调的条件。模拟分析表明,在我国大城市有限的交通资源条件下,大容量快速公共客运交通系统合理的建设规模、竞争能力以及合理的客流量增长水平是考虑其结构演化合理与否必备的前提条件,与此同时,合理的定位实施公共交通优先的常规公共交通、快速公共交通等交通方式适应于轨道交通系统的延伸、替代或升级功能不仅是可行的,而且对于某一经济发展阶段的大城市而言也是必须的。我国大城市公共交通结构演化是与城市经济发展阶段相对应的,城市经济的发展不仅是公共交通结构演化的基础,也是其他影响因素发挥作用的前提条件。论文在演化模型的实例分析中,以城市经济发展为切入点,结合上海、汉城、库里蒂巴等城市公共客运交通发展的数据,提出了城市公共交通结构演化的三阶段论,即我国大城市公共交通结构演化必须经历三个阶段:渐变期、剧变期和整合期,其中剧变期是关键。三阶段论对于我国多数尚处于渐变期的大城市能否在私人机动交通方式尚未占据主体地位时顺利实现出行方式结构公共交通化具有非常大的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban public passenger transport is an important component of passenger transport in urban, and is the inevitable product of socio-economic development. It contacts social production, circulation and people’s living. The cities in China are in motorization and urbanization, and being in rapid development stage, the structural evolution of urban public passenger transport is also at a critical stage. Comprehensive outer circumstances and internal evolution factors analysis, overall public passenger transport development strategy and urban public passenger transport regulatory policy decided future urban passenger transport sustainable development. This paper mainly research the traffic structure of urban public passenger transport with Dissipative Structure Theory (DST) and economics theory, discussing the urban public passenger transport structure evolution and optimization issues when urbanization, motorization and urban resident’s willing is changing, and studying urban passenger transport sustainable development, reasoning use and resources distribution to promote urban economic, urban public transport and social environment in coordinated way. These problems have been important issues which need to be resolved today in China.Reasonable urban public passenger transport function orientation reflected urban passenger transport development strategy. This paper mainly researches the function positioning of the passenger transport within the public passenger transport system. It will directly affect the evolution of the structure of the urban public transport. Reasonable set of different types of urban public passenger transport modes function should be established with socio-economic development in cities at different stages. Especially reasonable rapid transit with the orbital transport functions not only directly affect urban passenger transport system of the current year and future planning of public transport modes trends, but it can also contribute to urban rational allocation of the limited resources and improving the efficient use of time and space resources.Urban socio-economic, transport policy, urban spatial distribution, transport infrastructure level, geographical environment and resident’s psychological , customs and standards of living and other factors determine the impact of these issues, also affect the formation of urban public passenger transport structure evolution. This paper studies the system structure evolution through overall outer circumstances and internal evolution factors analysis. There are four classification outer circumstances such as economy, system, technique and passenger transport market and their role in the evolution of different classification structure studied. All of these circumstances would affect the supply and demand characteristic of urban public passenger transport, and also affected the scale and assignment of passenger traffic flow. These effects would be exposed to partner’s behavior and characteristic of public passenger transport system. At the internal factors analysis, paper mainly discusses the characteristics of urban residents and public passenger transport participants (passengers, operators and managers) economic characteristics through economical theory. Especially, the opportunity costs, external costs, social benefits analysis of the urban public passenger traffic managers would be deeply reflected the courses of the optimization of the structural evolution of micro-dynamics.To analysis urban public passenger transport system inner interactions and system architecture evolution trend, this paper considered public passenger traffic flow as a state variables, established public passenger traffic flow competition and coordination evolution models, basing on some method of DST and passenger transport system structure evolution. By using simulation method with matlab, this research analyses passenger transport structure evolution trends of the big city of our country in different parameters, and more coordinated manner conditions. Simulation analysis shows that in China’s large cities limited traffic resources conditions, large-capacity rapid public passenger transport system reasonable size,更多还原