【作者】 唐丽华；

【导师】 陆守一； 方陆明；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林经理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 森林是陆地生态系统的主体，是人类社会发展的重要条件，是生态建设的一个重要组成部分。森林灾害是指在自然变异和人为影响对生物圈及人类社会产生危害性后果的事件。由于自然因素和人为因素的影响，在我国，频繁的森林灾害已对国民经济发展形成沉重压力和威胁，因此防御森林灾害的发生是实现国民经济可持续发展的重要内容。尽管森林灾害发生机制极为复杂，使得人们难以预料和应付它的到来，但通过预兆指标监测分析，实现适时预报，进而做出合理的决策已是有效抵御和减免森林主要灾害的有效途径。 本论文从区域森林空间结构状况研究与森林主要灾害预防(事前)管理的需要出发，在对森林主要灾害研究现状和区域森林主要灾害特点规律、森林资源空间结构形成机理、空间结构分析技术和方法的理论及应用现状剖析基础上，提出森林主要灾害的发生、蔓延和区域森林资源空间结构密切相关的观点，进而对区域森林主要灾害与空间结构关系的适应性评价进行研究。 针对提出的问题，论文以森林空间结构为切入点，探讨了森林空间结构对森林主要灾害的影响因子，分析了森林主要灾害发生的特点及森林主要灾害与社会、经济、自然环境中的空间因子关系。考虑到森林主要灾害发生的环境复杂、环境变化快、影响因素多且具有不确定性等特点，在森林主要灾害的评价指标中引入空间指标同时，提出森林主要灾害与空间结构适应性评价方法。 为实现森林主要灾害与空间结构适应性评价方法，论文在对森林主要灾害成因因子与特点分析基础上，提出构建动态适应性评价指标体系框架思想，探讨了指标体系的生成和动态评价的途径，以适应不同时空条件、不同评价目标和不同用户需求。 在森林主要灾害适应性评价框架基础上，提出以稳定性指标为主建立了森林火灾递阶层次结构评价指标体系，确立了多种指标权重计算方法，并对传统层次分析方法进行了改进，在通用指标属性值提取规则的基础上进行基础指标量化、建立了单指标评价和综合评价模型。同时建立了以气象因子为主的非稳定性指标评价模型，并根据决策者的不同需求进行了专题评价与动态评价。 论文在以上基础上，对森林主要灾害适应性评价技术支持平台进行了系统设计，探讨了设计目标与原则，分析了评价主要流程，提出了总体的逻辑结构和物理结构，更多还原

【Abstract】 Forest is the main part of the whole land ecosystem; it is also the main factor of human society’s development and environment construction. The forest disaster mentioned here refers to the hazardous effect on biosphere and human society caused by nature and human’s destroy. In our country, forest disaster has formed serious pressure and threat to the national economic development so the forest disaster prevention is an important content to fulfill the sustainable lead to forest disaster is extremely complex, and people can’t anticipate its occurrence and handle it easily, but using the omen target monitor analysis, forecasting at the right moment, making effective and timely decision owe the ways to avoid and reduces the occurrence of forest disaster.In order to meet the need of research on regional forest spatial structure and management on prevention of forest disaster, on the basis of analysis on forest disaster research situation, forest disaster’s characters and rules, formation mechanism of forest spatial structure, the theory and using situation of spatial structure analysis technology. This paper proposed an idea that the occurrence and spread of forest disaster is correlated with regional forest spatial structure closely, and then to research on the compatible appraisement on the relations of forest disaster and forest spatial structure.In view of the questions proposed, taking the forest spatial structure as a breakthrough point, the paper has discussed the main factors that how forest spatial structure influence forest disaster and analyzed the character of forest disaster and its spatial relationship with society, economy, and nature environment. Considered the complex and variable and other uncertain factors the paper introduced the spatial target and proposes the forest main disaster and the forest spatial structure compatibility assessment method.In order to set up the assessing method for the compatibility between forest main disaster and the spatial structures, the thought of setting up dynamic compatibility assessing system was brought forward, based on the analysis of factors which can cause forest disasters. The forming of index system and the method of dynamic assessment was also studied in this paper, in order to suit for different space and hour, different assessing objects and different customer requirement.Based on the forest main disaster compatibility appraisal frame, the forest-fire hierarchical structure appraisal target system mainly by stability criteria was proposed. By establishing many kinds of target weight computational method, the traditional analytic hierarchy method was improved. Based on the extraction rule of general target attribute value, the single target appraisal and quality synthetically evaluation model were established. Simultaneously, the unstable target appraisal pattern mainly based更多还原