【作者】 任晓宾；

【导师】 宗蓓华；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 干散货海上运输市场是国际运输市场的重要组成部分。一方面，国际干散货运输市场在经历了相当长一段时期的低迷后，呈现出了复苏的迹象，并且形成了恢复性增长的趋势，国际干散货BDI指数持续增长，干散货船舶的租金日益上涨，全球干散货运输市场进入了黄金时期，越来越多的船公司看好干散货运输市场；另一方面，我国煤电油运的紧张局势虽然在目前随着国家经济宏观调控作用的逐步显现有所缓和，电力需求相对下降，但是长期来看，能源运输，特别是沿海大宗能源货物运输(如煤炭)，仍将是阻碍我国经济持续、快速、健康发展的影响因素之一；第三方面，受到全球经济一体化进程加快的影响，国与国之间的贸易量越来越多，而海上运输必然是大多数国际贸易交换的首选运输方式。但随着集装箱运输方式在海上运输领域的快速发展，并且逐渐被认同，越来越多的货物通过海上集装箱运输方式完成贸易交换。随之而来的是干散货运输方式逐渐被淡化，原来通过干散货运输的货源被集装箱化，造成传统的干散货海上运输面临越来越严峻的挑战。受此影响，选择了干散货海上运输市场竞争与合作作为论文的研究方向，着重于探索和研究干散货运输市场和企业竞争与合作理论和方法，加深对干散货运输市场的基础研究，着力提高现有对干散货海上运输市场和竞争研究理论水平。从现实意义上讲，研究干散货运输市场和干散货运输企业的竞争环境，可以有利于我国干散货运输企业通过“对标”，树立标杆企业作为赶超对象，提高我国干散货运输企业参与全球干散货运输市场竞争的能力；有利于规范我国沿海干散货运输市场的竞争秩序；有利于缓解目前我国面临的煤电油运紧张形势，降低从事沿海干散货运输市场的企业之间的无序和恶性竞争，建立健康、有序的沿海干散货运输市场环境。论文参考了大量国内外参考文献，涉及领域包括经济学、航运市场、企业竞争力评价、博弈等方面。主要作了以下几个方面的主要工作：(1)构建了干散货海上运输市场分析的理论框架，拓展了传统由运量需求、运力供给、运价三要素组成的运输市场分析内涵，新增的分析理论框架还包括市场主体——干散货运输企业的市场竞争、竞争力评价和市场竞争与合作等内涵；(2)运用经济学供需理论和均衡理论，研究了干散货运输市场的特殊性；(3)综合运用主因子分析法、模糊层次分析法，构建了干散货运输企业竞争力评价模型，并以全球十大干散货运输企业为例，进行了干散货运输企业竞争力分析；(4)应用博弈论中的多人合作博弈模型，研究沿海煤炭运输企业市场竞争与合作策略，并以沿海煤炭运输企业为例，对企业间的竞争和合作策略进行了实例分析。全文共九章，主要内容分为四个部分。第一部分内容为本文的第一章和第二章。主要介绍了论文的选题背景及其选题的意义和目的，针对现在干散货运输市场的发展趋势，提出了论文研究的主要内容和技术路线以及论文研究的主要创新点。对国内外干散货运输市场研究进行综述。回顾了国内外学者对干散货运输市场研究的内容和应用的主要理论和方法，把从上世纪30年代起，国内外学术界对干散货运输市场研究的现状进行了整理，提出了干散货运输市场研究的不足之处。第二部分内容为本文的第三章和第四章。对干散货运输市场分析理论进行了研究。分别阐述了干散货运输市场分析的重要意义和干散货运输市场分析的理论框架，拓展了传统意义上以需求、供给和均衡价格为代表的市场分析理论，并根据干散货运输市场的结构，提出了干散货运输市场相对于其他行业的主要特征及其特殊性。以新的市场分析理论框架为研究基础，对干散货运输市场均衡运价的形成进行了详细表述。第三部分内容是本文的第五章和第六章。对干散货运输市场竞争形态进行了分析和研究，主要是通过对当前国际海上运输竞争的外部环境和未来发展格局入手，介绍了干散货运输市场的竞争现状，并以服务和运价这两个主要竞争方式为切入点，试探性地提出了干散货运输市场出现的竞争新格局，提出了合作竞争是今后干散货运输市场竞争格局的主旋律。同时研究了干散货运输企业竞争力，分析了各种不同种类的企业竞争力评价方法，确立了应用主因子分析法，从多层次指标中选择数量少、贡献度大、易于分析的指标，并以模糊层次分析法作为建立干散货运输企业竞争力评价模型的主要方法，以全球十大干散货运输企业为主要研究对象，得到了全球十大干散货运输企业的综合合成排名。第四部分是本文的第七章和第八章。主要研究的是干散货运输企业竞争与合作，把博弈论结合干散货运输市场的实际情况，进行了综合说明，提出了博弈论是适合于研究干散货运输企业之间竞争与合作的思路。通过研究和分析竞争条件和合作条件下的干散货运输企业状况，建立了国内沿海干散货运输企业合作博弈模型，同时分析了我国国内沿海干散货运输市场现状和沿海干散货运输企业竞争策略空间，提出了沿海干散货运输企业建立企业战略联盟的思路和方法。以多人合作博弈理论为基础，建立了沿海干散货运输企业战略联盟模型，通过对单个联盟、两人联盟和三人联盟的实例，最终得出沿海干散货企业之间应当建立战略合作联盟的结论。本文最后是全文总结与展望。对全文进行了综述，提出了今后应当继续完善和研究的问题。论文采用经济学供需理论、均衡理论、主因子分析法和模糊层次分析法和多人合作博弈等理论和方法，针对国际和国内干散货运输市场实际，深入探讨了干散货运输市场的供需状况及其均衡运价和均衡运力，分别建立了干散货运输企业竞争力评价指标体系和干散货运输企业多人合作博弈模型。本文的创新点构成如下：(1)构建了干散货海上运输市场分析的理论框架，拓展了传统意义上由运量需求、运力供给、运价三要素组成的运输市场分析内涵，还包括了市场主体——干散货运输企业的市场竞争、竞争力评价和市场竞争与合作等内涵。(2)论文以经济学供需理论和均衡理论为基础，提出了干散货运输市场不同于其他行业的特殊性，主要体现在进入干散货运输市场领域的企业相对于其他行业需要更加雄厚的资金存量，不同于其他行业可以方便地自由进入或退出。(3)应用主因子分析法和模糊层次分析法，构建了干散货运输企业多级竞争力评价指标体系和干散货运输企业竞争力综合评价模型，并对全球十大干散货运输企业的市场竞争力进行了全面分析。(4)应用博弈论中的多人合作博弈模型，对沿海煤炭运输企业市场竞争与合作的策略进行研究，为干散货运输企业制定竞争策略提供科学的理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the real situation of dry bulk shipping market, lots of implied problems regarding dry bulk shipping market has been emerged. On one hand, in recent year, global dry bulk shipping market has expressed recovering phenomena after quite a long time deep sleeping. BDI index keeps its consistently increasing and also bulk carrier rent increase day by day. So we could concede that global dry bulk shipping market has leaped into its golden period. More and more bulk carrier ship-owners keep their positive view on recent dry bulk shipping market. On the other hand, China energy resources shortage strictly influences Chinese economic increase especially in the field of coastal coal and crude oil transportation. Although China government takes macro control as a great measure in order to decrease the electricity demand, energy resource(such as coal) shortage has still been the most important factor in the duration of guaranteeing its economic consistent and healthy increasing. On the third hand, owing to the global economic integration, trade volume between country and country are growing rapidly and sea transportation is still the most popular way to complete international trade. Containerization has its multiple advantages, such as convenience and fast delivery etc., so most of cargo-owners have accepted cargo-containerization as their priority to transport cargoes. Reasoned by containerization, dry bulk shipping market has to face fierce challenges in specific sea transportation field.Because of above-mentioned reasons, the dissertation mainly specializes on competition and co-operation on dry bulk shipping market, endeavoring to explore new theory and new method on the real dry bulk shipping market and bulk ship-owner competition and also deepening the basic research on dry bulk shipping market. On the view of real condition, analyzing bulk shipping market competition environment could help Chinese bulk ship-owners set up its own "target enterprise" to find out what and which is the real distance between itself and global sophisticated management shipping enterprise so as to increase Chinese ship-owner competitive capacity in the global dry bulk shipping market. Secondly, researching dry bulk shipping market, especially Chinese coastal dry bulk shipping market, could stipulate coastal competitive environment and increase the dry bulk ship-resources complimentary management.The dissertation refers to a large amount of reference material in the field of economics, shipping market, enterprise competitiveness evaluation, game theory etc. Accordingly, the main tasks comprise of following four parts. The first one is that setting up new theory framework on dry bulk shipping market analysis based on traditional market analysis theory which is strictly observed by three factors, such as supply, demand and price. The new theory framework is added one new factor-bulk shipping enterprise competitiveness evaluation and its game theory strategy. The second one is that researching the specialization on dry bulk shipping market based on supply and demand theory and equilibrium theory. The third one is that establishing dry bulk shipping enterprise competitiveness evaluation model based on Factor Analysis and AHP-F method. Simultaneously, appointing ten biggest dry bulk shipping enterprises as example to analyze dry bulk shipping market competitiveness. The forth one is that applying multi-person co-operative game theory to China coastal dry bulk shipping enterprise competition and co-operation strategy research, studying main China coastal coal shipping market body-bulk ship-owners on their competition and co-operation strategy.The main body of this dissertation can be divided into four sections.Section one includes chapter one and chapter two. Mainly making a brief introduction of dry bulk shipping market research background and its research purpose, pointing out the principle studying framework, reviewing the main theory and method on dry bulk shipping market from 1930s till now and raising the studied blank part of dry bulk shipping market.Section two includes chapter three and chapter four. Mainly concentrating on the dry bulk shipping market to respectively setting forth the research importance and the theory framework on dry bulk shipping market, expanding the traditional market analysis theory, elaborating the main characteristics and specialization of dry bulk shipping market compared with other industries, explaining detailed shaping process of equilibrium freight rate based on new-established dry bulk shipping market analysis theory framework.Section three includes chapter five and chapter six. It starts with outside environment of current international shipping competition and forthcoming developing structure, studying on the dry bulk shipping market pattern, introducing the current situation of dry bulk shipping market, experimentally pointing out the new dry bulk shipping market competitive pattern and its faced market competitive risk integrated with two chief competitive methods which are service and freight rate, putting forward co-operative competition is the principle way in the approaching dry bulk shipping market. Section three also studies on the competitive capacity of dry bulk shipping enterprise, analyzes the different competition evaluation methods to establish dry bulk shipping enterprise competition evaluation model by the way of Factor Analysis and AHP-F theory. Finally, takes the global ten biggest dry bulk shipping enterprises as researching objects to achieve the comprehensive ranking.Section four includes chapter seven and chapter eight. It comprehensively indicates the co-operation of real dry bulk shipping market applying to game theory which is suitable to be integrated with dry bulk shipping market. By way of researching and analyzing the real faced situation by dry bulk shipping enterprises under the condition of competition and co-operation, establishing co-operative game theory model in China coastal dry bulk shipping enterprise strategic alliance.Chapter nine is the summary and prospect of the dissertation. It summarizes the total content and puts forward shortcoming of the dissertation.Generally and comprehensively survey on the dissertation, it comprises of following innovations.The first one is establishing a new market analysis theory framework on dry bulk shipping market.The second one is raising the specific characteristics of dry bulk shipping market compared with other industries based on supply and demand theory and equilibrium theory.The third one is setting up a multi-level competitiveness capacity evaluation model by way of Factor Analysis and AHP-F theory.The forth one is studying on the real condition of China coastal dry bulk shipping market competition and co-operation strategy applied to multi-person co-operative game theory.更多还原