【作者】 白景涛；

【导师】 刘伟；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 解放以来，特别是改革开放以来，我国港口在建设、运营、管理等各方面都取得了令世界瞩目的巨大成就。但是，随着我国经济的快速发展，煤电油运出现全面紧张，沿海港口面临巨大的压力。本论文研究对分析我国沿海港口建设发展规律，深入研究分析我国沿海港口建设发展中的问题，深入研究国外港口建设发展规律，借鉴其经验和教训，探索经济发展与沿海港口建设的关系，促进沿海港口的发展，科学地指导我国沿海港口的建设，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本论文共分8章。第1章为引言，介绍了论文的选题背景、主要研究内容与研究目标，并综述了本论文研究领域国内外研究动态。第2章主要研究我国沿海港口发展现状与我国现行港口建设发展机制存在的弊端。重点研究了我国沿海三大港口群发展情况，证明现行港口通过能力的计算方法存在的问题，指出现在对港口建设的合理时机问题缺乏研究，从而进一步证明了本论文研究是非常有意义的。第3章主要研究国外几个著名港口群的发展现状与经验和香港政府集装箱码头建设“触发点机制”。研究了世界主要港口组合模式及协调沟通机制、国外对港口地位和作用的认识、国外港口建设和港口管理政策、世界先进港口发展的主要经验、世界主要港口的建设发展机制和香港政府集装箱码头建设“触发点机制”等。第4章研究港口通过能力与港口吞吐量关系。证明了港口通过能力与港口吞吐量之间存在高度的相关性。证明了对于目前中国沿海港口的吞吐能力严重紧缺的情况下，当拥有更大的港口通过能力，就会相应地增加港口吞吐量的结论，并提出了港口能力适应度的概念。第5章研究我国沿海港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量的预测方法。分析比较几种预测法的结果后，认为对于货物吞吐量预测，把吞吐量分成外贸吞吐量和内贸吞吐量，用对外进出口额与外贸吞吐量回归，用GDP值与内贸吞吐量的方法更合理可信一些。对于集装箱吞吐量预测，用对外进出口额与集装箱吞吐量回归分析预测法方法更合理可信一些。第6章研究我国沿海港口发展建设时机模型。主要研究了港口通过能力的作用、修正港口通过能力的必要性和修正方法；研究了我国沿海港口建设发展通用模型、模型的计算机软件实现和计算机软件的实证研究等。本模型及其计算机软件，可以作为确定现有港口扩大生产规模和兴建新泊位的依据。第7章研究我国沿海港口发展对策。研究了影响我国沿海港口发展的因素和解决我国沿海港口发展中问题的主要措施。探讨了调整港口结构、促进港口发展和提高港口竞争力的对策。第8章是总结与展望。总结了本文的主要研究工作，并展望了今后进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The huge achievements in building, carrying and managing etc. in China’s ports have been obtained since liberation, especially, since innovating and opening. The port’s in china development in quantity and velocity creates marvelous successes.This dissertation is significant in both theoretic field and reality to analyze the rule of port construction in China and in foreign countries, explore the relation between economic growth and coastal port construction, instruct in scientific method and accelerate coastal port development.This dissertation contains 8 chapters.Chapter 1 introduces the topic selection background, primary research content and objective of the study, reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign research in this field.Chapter 2 mainly focuses on these researches, China’s coastal port development state and its disadvantage in construction mechanism, especially on the three big seaports groups of our country. The problems of present computing method of port’s handling capacity are proved. The proper construction occasion of port is lack in investigation. It is significative for this dissertation to study further.Chapter 3 mainly researches the development state and experience of several famous foreign seaport clusters, the Trigger Point Mechanism of Hong Kong government, some important combined models and cooperative communication mechanisms in the world, foreign seaport construction and management policy and main experiences of the world advanced seaport development and the Trigger Point Mechanism of Hong Kong government etc.Chapter 4 does some research on the relation between port’s throughput. We prove that there is strong correlation between them and we must increase the port’s throughput when we have bigger port’s throughput for the present serious lack of Chinese coastal port’s throughput. The concept of the port capacity adaptation is put forward.Chapter 5 does some research on the prediction method of the seaport freight throughput and container throughput. After the analysis and comparison of the results from different prediction methods,Chapter 6 does a research on the seaport construction occasion model in China. The main study is on function of the seaport capacity of throughput, necessity of correction and method of correcting; as well as the seaport construction development occasion popular model, computation and calculation implementation software of this model, it application case and etc.Chapter 7 mainly focuses on the factors affect the seaport development of our country and the primary measure how to resolve these problems, and discuss the countermeasures to enforce the seaport development and improve the seaport competitive ability by adjusting the seaport construction.Chapter 8 is the summary and conclusion. It sums up the major works which has been done in the paper, and further study which can be done in the next.更多还原