【作者】 黄学；

【导师】 吴淦国；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 石油供给安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，本土石油供给在这组成部分中占有重要地位，我国石油企业多数面临中后期开采，三次采油技术成为保障产量的关键，继而成为经济、社会和环境共同关注的领域，在处理技术发展规划的理论和方法中，技术预见正成为一种系统的高层次工具平台。目前，把技术预见应用到企业中的某一技术领域的研究较少，因此，本论文具有很强的理论意义与实践价值。 论文通过技术预见方法分析，构建了中国石油企业的三次采油技术预见理论，它包括三个关键部分：战略情景分析、三次采油技术体系建立及三次采油技术预见方法设计，最后以大庆油田三次采油技术发展规划为例进行了实践应用，取得了建设性结果和建议。 从战略情景分析中，揭示了与三次采油技术预见有紧密关系的国家层次的四大战略转变及企业层次的可持续发展面临的五大挑战，为技术预见的情景构造打下了基础。 以继承和发展为主线，深刻剖析了三次采油技术的内涵和外延，详细调查了国内外三次采油技术的发展现状，从三次采油技术的外延层面上构建了技术预见过程中的三次采油技术体系，它包括化学驱、热力驱、气驱、微生物驱、物理驱、其它等六大类技术和18项关键技术，并对18项技术进行了机理及特点方面的总结与分析。 深入分析了技术预见的特点，比较了技术预见理论所涉及的各种方法，进而设计了中国石油企业三次采油技术预见方法体系，分别从非专家参与的文献计量分析和专家参与的群体综合集成两个方面进行了研究，以关键情景分析与智慧研讨集成为基础，建立了三次采油技术预见的评价指标体系和专家组成体系，并创造性地设计了在群体专家意见综合集成时考虑分歧专家的计算方法。 通过对大庆油田三次采油发展规划的技术预见实例，前瞻性地给出了不同阶段的发展规划，并就技术预见的过程和结果提出了若干战略对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety of petroleum supply has been an important part of a country, among which domestic petroleum supply has played an important role. Most of China petroleum enterprises are confronted with medium and late production phase, so tertiary oil recovery technology has been the key for ensuring production and the domain attracting the common attention of economy, society and environment. Technology foresight is going to be a systematic high-level instrument platform among the treatment technology development layout theories and methods. At present, technology foresight is seldom used in some technology domain of enterprise. Therefore, this paper has crucial theory significance and practice value.Tertiary oil recovery technology foresight theory of China petroleum enterprise has been put forward in this paper by technology foresight analysis, including three key parts: stratagem circumstance design, tertiary oil recovery technology system establishment and technology foresight method analysis. Finally take Daqing oilfield tertiary oil recovery technology development layout as an example to carry out, constructive results and suggestions are obtained in this paper.According to the stratagem circumstance analysis, four stratagem transitions tightly connected with tertiary oil recovery technology foresight of a country and five challenges faced by sustainable development of an enterprise have been discovered, which set foundation for circumstance construction of technology foresightAccordance with the main thought of inheriting and developing, the intension and extension of tertiary oil recovery technology has been anatomized profoundly. The development situation of internal and external abroad tertiary oil recovery technology has been researched in detail. Tertiary oil recovery technology system of technology foresight has been constructed from the extension of tertiary oil recovery technology, which includes chemical flooding, thermal flooding, gas flooding, microbial flooding, physical flooding etc. six main kinds of technologies and eighteen key technologies. The mechanism and character of the eighteen technologies has also been summarized and analyzed.Technology foresight character has been analyzed deeply. All kinds of methods involved by technology foresight theory have been compared. Then tertiary oil recovery technology foresight system of China petroleum enterprise has been set up. Literature measure analysis with no expert participation and group comprehension integration with expert participation have been researched respectively. Based on the key circumstance analysis and wisdom discussion integration, the evaluation norm system and expert constitution system of tertiary oil recovery更多还原