【作者】 万星；

【导师】 丁晶；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本论文依托国家重点自然科学基金项目:“基于子波和分形理论的水文尺度分析新途径(NO.40271024);水文水资源子波分析新途径(No.50279023)”开展研究。通过对传统的遗传算法、神经网络、灰色理论、最近邻思想、小波分析研究,提出了改进的对称调和遗传算法、改进的灰色耦合模型和最近邻神经网络耦合模型,在此基础上将基于经验模态分解的希尔伯特-黄变换、集对分析等方法引入水电科学成功构建了水文径流预测、水资源评估、水库优化调度、水电站经济效益综合评价、电力负荷预测等多种模型,并对模型进行了实证研究,较好地解决了水文水资源中的一些复杂性问题。总括起来,本文在以下几方面取得创新成果:(1)本论文尝试构建了基于集对原理的水文水资源分析模式、评价模式、预测模式,在研究分析中依据水文水资源及水环境系统的特点,先从水文现象中一些集对的例子入手,通过联系度表达式分析研究了不同河川年径流的同步变化;建立了地下水资源承载力的等级;生态脆弱性程度;水库水电站综合效益评价模型。集对分析法与传统分析方法相比较,直观、简明、实用、针对性强,也便于计算机操作。为水电科学中的分析、计算、评价和预测增添了一种独特的方法。(2)本文提出了一种自适应最近邻神经网络耦合模型,该耦合模型能够在一定程度上解决水文水资源、电力负荷预测中对数据作预处理以及模型选择和参数的不确定性问题;开辟了构建水文水资源径流序列预测模型的新思路。(3)针对遗传算法存在求解精度与收敛速度间的矛盾,本文提出一种新的自适应对称调和遗传新算法,以清江隔河岩水库为例,建立了水库发电最优调更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper gets the support of Chinese National Nature Science Fund: the analysis of many New methods in hydrology based on wavelet and fractal theory (NO.40271024), and Wavelet method in water resources and hydrology (NO.50279023).By studying the traditional methods, such as genetic algorithm, neural networks, grey theory, nearest-neighbor, Wavelet , the paper brings forward many new methods including Improved symmetric and harmonious genetic algorithm, Improved grey coupling model , the coupling model of nearest-neighbor and neural networks. On the base of the study, Many models are designed by use of the EMD and Hilbert-Huang method、set pair analysis ,which includes forecast runoff、assessment of water resource、Optimal run of reservoir、the comprehensive assessment on Economic Benefit of hydropower plant、hydroelectric load forecast and so on in hydropower science, At last, by applying these models on hydropower science, the paper resolves some complex questions of water resources and hydrology successfully. All in all, the following results have been achieved(1) This paper tried to structure analysis pattern, evaluation pattern and forecast pattern for hydrological resource basing on integration theory. In the research analysis, the author has gone on the features of hydrological resource and environment system, firstly started with some integration examples occurred in hydrological vision, and analyzed and made research on in-phase changes of annual runoff for various rivers through affiliation expressions. Moreover, the author has also set up grades for groundwater resource load, degree of ecotype frangibility as well as comprehensive benefit evaluation pattern of reservoir water and power plant. Comparing with traditional and used analytical methods, the integration analysis is direct, compendious with strong pertinence which is convenient to operate on更多还原