【作者】 冯凯；

【导师】 徐志胜；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 消防工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文是国家“十五”科技攻关课题“小城镇基础设施防灾减灾关键技术研究”(2002BA806803-01)的重要研究组成部分。针对“十五”课题的研究攻关目标，以灾害数字仿真和公共安全应急管理为研究对象，运用信息技术、灾害科学等多学科边缘结合的技术方法，构建了可视化灾害数字仿真理论，提出了公共安全应急管理的三大核心层次。在深入剖析当前实践和前沿研究中所存在的问题的基础上，建立了灾害数字仿真与公共安全应急管理的融合模型。在做到理论创新突破的同时，进行GIS的二次开发，研制了小城镇灾害数字仿真与公共安全应急决策系统。本文完成的研究工作及取得的主要进展如下： (1) 提出了可视化灾害数字仿真理论，阐述了该理论的内涵、技术支持、研究方法、实施流程及空间效应，建立灾害数字仿真模型的通用范式，构建危险性分析模型、危害区域模型和损失预测模型等一系列模型组，形成了一套完整的理论体系，实现对灾害空间数据进行有效的集成管理和时空分析，为灾害的防治、应急管理和工程论证等提供可靠的依据。 (2) 构建了灾害数字仿真的可视化平台，研究了仿真模型GIS表达的关键技术及实现步骤，并以火灾、地震、洪灾等典型灾害为实例，运用GIS等可视化技术预演或重现真实灾害的发展过程，为灾害研究提供了一种全新的方法与思路。 (3) 分析了公共安全应急管理的行政特性，提出了公共安全应急管理的三大核心层次。建立了基础信息和灾害信息的分类管理模型，研究了生命线工程和抗灾设施在应急管理中的作用；研究了公共安全应急决策的目标与约束条件，提出应急决策的内容和流程；研究了公共安全空间规划的内容和原则，提出抗灾设施规划标准与建构模式，建立了救灾单元区域的优化模型。 (4) 建立了灾害数字仿真和公共安全应急管理的融合模型，分别从软环境和硬环境入手，研究了灾害数字仿真和公共安全应急管理融合的制度和技术保障，提出了融合的可持续发展模式和系统模式，并建立了融合保障模型，为解决应急联动等关键技术难题，从制度建设和核心技更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis is one important component of National Fifteenth Science & Technology Project "research on the key technology of disaster prevention and reduction of infrastructure in small towns " (2002BA806B0301). Directed by the tackling purpose of the project, the thesis uses multi-disciplinary method combined with information technology and disaster science to initiate disaster digital simulation theory and put forward three topics of public safety emergency management. Based on analyzing the drawbacks in current practice and front study, integration pattern and model between disaster digital simulation and public safety emergency management is formulated. GIS technology is applied to develop disaster digital simulation and public safety emergency decision system, the research content and main achievements are as follows:1) Disaster digital simulation theory is initiated, in which such primary problems as the concept, technology support, method, implement flow and spatial effect of the theory are illustrated. The general paradigm of disaster digital simulation model and a series of simulation models are built, which consists of hazard analysis model, impact scope model and loss prediction model. On the basis of the work above, the complete theoretical system is costructed, which provides credible support for disaster-prevention, emergency management and engineering demonstration.2) The key technology and realization procedure of how simulation model is expressed by GIS is studied. By taking such disasters as fire, earthquake, and flood for example, GIS is adopted as the platform to preview and reconstruct real disaster process. Multivariant and iterative simulation experiment can be made by only changing correlated factors and conditions, to provide disaster science with a brand-new method and perspective.3) The administration characteristics of public emergency management are deeply analysed. Three core topics of public safety emergency management are illustrated from the general level. The systematic更多还原