【作者】 陈宁；

【导师】 朱美琪；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计制造， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 港口是水运系统的重要组成部分。港口是综合运输枢纽，是船舶与其他载运工具的衔接点，还是物流的节点和贸易的门户。经济结构、产业结构优化迫切要求港口运营结构优化，但目前对港口存在的运营结构问题及优化策略研究比较薄弱，与港口发展要求不相适应。深入研究港口运营结构，打造港口运营结构优化的系统理论基础，完善港口经济与管理理论体系，对在我国港口刚下放到地方政府、实现了政企分开新形势下，国家和城市政府有关部门进行行业管理、港口企业健康快速发展具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。 论文提出了港口运营结构概念，论述了经济结构优化、产业结构优化、港口运营结构优化之间的关系，揭示了我国港口运营结构存在的问题，论述港口运营结构优化的意义。 论文分析了对港口运营影响较大的外部环境因素以及港口内部环境因素，指出了港口只有明确内部的资源和能力，在适应外部环境下，合理优化内部资源和能力配置，才能实现其健康快速发展。 港口需求是港口运营的主要外部环境因素之一，它包括货物对港口的吞吐量需求和船舶对港口换装作业需求两大方面；港口吞吐量预测、船型发展预测是港口运营结构优化的基础和重要前期工作。论文首次提出对数二次指数平滑模型预测港口吞吐量，用灰色聚类和灰色统计优化船型、预测船型的发展。并用三个典型实例验证了在各种预测方法中对数二次指数平滑模型最适合我国港口吞吐量预测。分析了灰色系统方法比层次分析法、模糊层次评价法客观、可靠的特点。灰色统计和灰色聚类结果基本一致，但更简便、易行，因此，灰色统计是一种比较理想的船型优化方法，可为船型发展预测提供科学依据。 论文指出了港口基础设施结构优化的重点是泊位结构优化，提出泊位结构主要由通用专业泊位结构、进口出口中转泊位结构、泊位等级结构构成，论述了它们的相互关系，以及这些构成的优化方法，并进行了实证分析。 论文提出了按港口产品不同对港口生产结构进行分类，探讨了其组成部分关系和比例；给出了集装箱货运站智能管理信息系统思路；论述了干散货、液体散货码头的高效化、自动化，指出了港口应推广使用机械式连续卸船机；更多还原

【Abstract】 Ports are important components of the water transportation system. They are the terminals of multi-transport, the connecting points between ships and other transport vessels. They are nodes of modern logistics and doors to trade. The optimizing of the structure of economy and industries is pressing for the optimum of the operating structure of ports while on the other hand, the researches on the problems exist in the operating of ports and strategies to optimizing the items are rather feeble at present, which is not in accordance with the requirement of the port developing. It is of great significance both in theory and practice to concentrate on the research about the operating structure of ports and building the systemic theory basis on the optimum of it. The research is in favor of perfecting the economy and management theory system of ports. Especially, the research will assist the country and certain departments in local governments to manage the industry and expedite the healthy and rapid development of port corporations under the new background of that ports have been exactly let go down to the local governments and have governments separated from the companies.The thesis has represented the concept of the operating structure of ports; discussed the relationships among the optimum of economic structure, industry structure and the operating structure of ports; revealed the problems exist in the operating structure of ports in our country; illustrated the significance of the optimum of the operating structure of ports.The thesis has analyzed the elements that do much more influence on the port operation in the environment outside and inside the ports. It points out that to realize the healthy and rapid development of ports, there aren’t other ways but make clear about the resources and abilities internal, then optimize the scheme of them adjusting to environment external.The demand for ports is one main factor of the environment outside the ports in the port operation. It includes the demand of cargo for ports’ throughput and the demand of ships for ports’ handling. The throughput forecast of ports and the更多还原