【作者】 胡林；

【导师】 冯仲科； 罗富和；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 林火是森林演替的重要驱动力,森林火灾作为失去人为控制的异常森林燃烧现象,是一种燃烧机理十分复杂和危害森林比较严重的自然灾害。如何趋利避害,控制林火使其向有利的方向发展,需要对林火的机理有深入的研究。本文引入知识发现的理论、技术及方法,旨在利用知识发现技术的非平凡过程,提高林火研究的自动化水平,得到林火发生的新知识和新模型,为林火的研究提供新的理论、方法和技术。本研究以北京市房山区为研究试验区域,应用知识发现理论和方法,以R软件为工具,研究了房山区林火发生蔓延与环境因子间的关系,并对树种可燃性、林火气象、林火动态分布等进行了研究分析。本文研究的主要内容包括1林火数据的精准采集问题应用手持GPS,森林罗盘和了望塔定位技术,结合GIS技术,解决了林火精准采集的问题,提高了林火数据的精度,结合林业局现状,解决了林火数据采集的难题。2林火数据的预处理问题应用知识发现的数据预处理技术,定性定量地分析了数据偏离值产生的原因,去除了林火中的噪声数据,确定了林火数据中缺失值的处理问题。3研究了知识发现三大关键技术在林火研究中的应用问题应用知识发现三大关键技术研究了林火发生气象因子与林火发生及蔓延的问题,得到了新的林火知识,提出了林火气象的复杂性问题,并提出了以知识发现技术处理林火气象数据的关键技术问题。4研究了林火时序数据和空间数据的处理问题。研究了林火时序数据的分析方法,解决了基于时序数据的处理方法,提出了森林防火期的自动计算及林火发生重灾区的自动分析方法。本研究的主要成果1不同的气象条件的组合对于林火的发生有着相关的影响。林火的气象条件与林火的关系是非常复杂的,不同的气象因子的组合,可能对林火的发生带来相同的影响,而不是传统意义上的可以用单一公式可以表达的关系。这可能就是林火发生难以通过气象因子进行准确预测的重要原因,研究发现制约林火发生的重要因子是降水,影响林火发生数量的因子是湿度,风速与温度对林火发生的影更多还原

【Abstract】 Forest fire is an important drive to the succession of the forest, and the forest fire is a burning that is out of control, and it is a natural disaster which mechanism is complex and does great harm to. How to get its benefit and to avoid its harm and to control the fire and make it tend to the fire favorite to the benefit, it needs the deep master to the forest fire’s mechanism. In this research, the theory, technology and the methods of the knowledge discover is introduced into, and implying the unordinary procedure to improve the automation level of the forest fire research, and gets new knowledge and builds new model, as a result, to provide new theory, technique and methods.The Fangshan district as the research area, the R as the analysis tool, the relation between the ignition and the spread of forest fire and the environment in this area was analyzed.The main contains of this research include many respects, as follows:1 the collection of the forest fire’s precision data.Implying the location and measurement technology of the hand-hold GPS, forest compass and the lookout of the forest fire, aided by the GIS, the difficulty of collection of the precision data of forest fire is solved, and the precision of the forest fire data is improved. According to the condition of the forest bureau of Fangshan, the problem how to get the forest fire data is solved.2 the pretreatment of the forest fire dataImplying the pretreatment technology of the forest fire data, the cause of the outlier was probed in description and in fix quantify. The noise in the forest fire is removed, and the method to replace the missing data is determined.3 the research on the application of the three key technology of the KD in forest fire research. Three key technology of KD is implying in the research on the relationship between the weather factors and the ignition and the spread of the forest fire attain the new knowledge and present that the weather factor’s affect on the forest fire is complex. The key technique to analysis the weather factors with the KD is present.4 research on the time serial data and the spatial data of the forest fire Research on the time serial data, figure out the methods to analysis the time serial data and present the calculating of the forest fire protection period and the determine of the severe area.The main result1 the combination of different weather factors may have the same infection on the ignition of the forest fire.The combination of the different climate factors has the same affections on the forest fire’s ignition, and that can not be expressed by a formula which is widely used in traditional statistics. This更多还原