【作者】 卜庆才；

【导师】 陆钟武；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 热能工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 物质流分析(SFA)是在一个国家或一个地区范围内，对特定的某种物质(如铝、铜等)或物质组合(如重金属)进行工业代谢研究的有效手段。物质流分析的目的是找到节省天然资源、改善环境的途径，以推动工业系统向可持续发展方向转化。做好物质流分析，才有可能在资源和环境方面提出供决策者参考的建议。 静态物质流分析(s-SFA)和动态物质流分析(d-SFA)是物质流分析的两种主要方法。西方习惯采用s-SFA方法，而本文采用的是陆钟武教授提出的基于产品生命周期物流图的d-SFA方法。d-SFA方法的突出特点是，物流跟踪过程从产品生命周期的起点——天然资源开始，一直跟踪到产品生命周期的终点——报废的制品为止，而且这个生命周期的终点要和下一个生命周期的起点相连接。 d-SFA方法的主要困难是钢铁产品平均使用寿命难以确定。本文提出了两种确定钢铁产品平均使用寿命的确定方法：“加权平均法”和“曲线平移法”。采用加权平均法计算出1950～1987年中国钢铁产品平均使用寿命为20～22年(在钢铁产品按品种分成12大类的情况下)，以及2002年中国钢铁产品的平均使用寿命为22年(在钢铁产品按消费领域分成42个部门的情况下)。采用曲线平移法，确定了美国钢铁产品平均使用寿命为24年。 本文按照“钢铁产品生命周期铁流图”的模式，通过大量调研和分析计算，完成了对我国2001年的全部铁流及22年前的报废产品铁流的盘点，画出了“2001年中国铁流图”和“2001年中国钢铁产品生命周期铁流图”，并采用s-SFA和d-SFA两种方法展开了物质流分析。在分析中，重点对比了中国和世界主要产钢国(美国、日本、德国、俄罗斯等)的铁资源效率，指出了在钢产量持续高速增长情况下，提高中国钢铁工业铁资源效率的途径。 通过对国内外废钢资源状况的深入调研，全面掌握了国内外废钢资源量，弄清了中国利用国外废钢资源的状况，预测了2010～2020年中国废钢资源量和电炉钢比。预测结果表明，2010年以后，中国的废钢消耗量将逐渐由目前的世界第二位上升到世界第一位，世界上最大的废钢产业将在中国形成。本文在充分调查研究的基础上，提出了一系列有关废钢产业发展的政策建议，对管理部门具有一定的参考价值。 在铁矿资源问题上，通过对世界铁矿资源及铁矿贸易状况的调查，掌握了国外可利用的铁矿资源状况，弄清了世界铁矿贸易的区域性特点，并预测了2010～更多还原

【Abstract】 Substance flow analysis (SFA) is an effective tool for studying the industrial metabolism of specific substances (e.g. aluminum, copper) or group of substances(e.g. heavy metals) on a certain spatial scale, for example, on the scale of a country, a region or a firm. The purpose of SFA is looking for the potentials and measures of resource conservation and environment protection, and encouraging industrial system to meet the requirement of sustainable development. Thus, the proposals offered in SFA can be of assistance to decision makers.Static SFA (s-SFA) and dynamic SFA (d-SFA) are two methods of SFA. Usually, the west countries prefer the s-SFA. But we adopt the d-SFA in this paper. The d-SFA, developed by prof Lu Zhongwu, is based on the substance flow diagram of a product life cycle. Its notable characteristic is that the inventory of substance flow begins with the starting point of a product life cycle, resource acquisition, and ends with the recovery of obsolete products. Thus, product life cycles are connected one by one.The main difficulty of d-SFA is the determination of the average life-span of products. This paper gives two methods to determine average life-span of steel products: weighted average method (WAM) and graphic shifting method (GSM) . The average life-span of steel products is 20-22 years in China in 1950-1987 calculated by the WAM (the steel products are divided into 12 sorts by category) . And the average life-span of steel products is 22 years in 2002 (the steel products are divided into 42 sections by use) . The average life-span of steel products in USA determined by GSM is 24 years in this paper.Based on the iron-flow diagram of steel product life cycle, the inventory of iron flow of China in 2001, including the old scrap generated from steel products 22 years ago, was made. Two diagrams of iron-flow in 2001 were drawn and analyzed according to s-SFA and d-SFA methods, respectively. The iron resource efficiencies were compared between China and other chief steel-producing countries (such as USA, Japan, Germany and Russia, etc.). Some idiographic ways to improve the iron resource efficiency for China, whose steel output is rapidly increasing, were puts forward.After intensive research and analysis of the status of scrap resources, the amount of domestic and overseas steel scraps were estimated. The amount of scrap resources and the EAF share of steel production for China in 2010-2020 were forecasted. The results are: China will be the largest consumer of steel scraps in the world after 2010, a huge steel scrap industry will, probably, appear in China. Some strategical suggestions for the development of steel scrap industry in China were mentioned, which will be更多还原