【作者】 管洪；

【导师】 冉光和；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本论文是对县域政府负债风险的理论与控制研究。本研究以县域经济发展理论、财政管理理论、风险管理理论与可持续发展理论为基础，研究县域政府负债风险的内涵，县域政府负债动机、负债风险形成机理以及负债风险的影响因素；建立地方政府负债风险的理论模型，并构建县域政府负债风险测度与预警的实证模型；对县域政府负债及负债风险的现状进行实证考察，弄清县域政府负债风险的现状、原因及影响；根据县域政府的经济社会职能以及县域未来社会经济发展新趋势，探索适合县域政府负债风险的监测、预警、监管机制，并提出防范与化解县域政府负债风险的政策建议。1．研究结论(1)县域政府负债有其历史与现实的必然性，不能突然中断债务链。虽然预算法规定地方政府要做到平衡预算，不列赤字，但改革开放以来，特别是1994年财政体制改革以来，多数县域政府在片面追求经济增长的内在冲动和县域政府财权与事权不对称的体制约束下，已出现了过度负债现象。当前，不少的县域政府需要通过借新债还旧债，才能避免支付危机的出现。如果当前不允许县域政府负债，可能不少县域政府会陷入危机，整个社会的支付链条就会断裂，金融风险、社会风险就会爆发。另外，长期以来，资金紧缺问题一直是制约我国县域经济与社会发展的关键性因素，县域政府适度负债可以在相当大的程度上缓解县域资金不足的困难，为县域农业产业化、企业改革与城镇化发展提供资金保障。从理论层面与现实层面来看，县域政府适度负债都有其必要性。(2)县域政府负债的扩张是县域政府追求即期绩效的结果。在县域政府负债的总收益(R)函数中，贴现率ρ是一个重要变量。在ρ较大时，县域政府负债的未来收益对政府的当前收益贡献会越来越小。尤其是在县域政府官员频繁轮换任职的情况下，政府官员心目中的ρ一般较大。县域政府负债的成本与政府负债风险密切相关。风险愈大，则相应的成本就越高。由于县域政府的特殊性，其负债成本不能完全被内部化，县域政府可以通过上级政府担保、县域政府权力的运用、弱势群体的非自愿性应债等多种方式进行成本转移。因此在短期高收益和短期低成本的推动下，县域政府负债扩张的动机十分明显。(3)引致县域政府负债风险的有静态和动态两方面因素。而实证分析表明，决定负债风险的敏感因子主要是地方居民个人偿债率、地方债务依存度、债务的平均偿还年限、财政偿债率、地方政府债务余额增长率／地方GDP增长率、地方财政年偿债额增长率／地方财政收入增长率等六个指标。引致县域政府负债的静态因素主要来自于两个方面。一是政府的负债行为。当政府负债存量太大，历史包袱太多时，未偿还的债务余额必然很大，出现收小于支的可能性就会增大；当负债结构不合理时，支付危机出现的可能性也会较多。二是县域政府当年的净现金流。当税收收入减少，而支出增加，或政府的融资渠道不畅时，支付危机发生的可能性也就越大。在动态层面上，决定负债风险的主要因素是经济增长和负债成本。当地方政府经济增长停滞不前时，政府的债务负担将会变得无限大，地方政府负债风险就会产生；当政府负债成本高于经济增长速度时，且新债务无限制地增加时，政府债务负担会无限大，负债风险必然存在。基于西部某市40个区县近5年的资料，运用粗糙集理论，对12个地方政府负债风险指标进行了敏感因子的筛选。结果表明，决定负债风险的敏感因子主要是地方居民个人偿债率、地方债务依存度、债务的平均偿还年限、财政偿债率、地方政府债务余额增长率／地方GDP增长率、地方财政年偿债额增长率／地方财政收入增长率等六个指标。(4)县域政府负债总体规模较大，过度负债十分普遍。根据A市2000-2004年的统计资料，A市区县负债覆盖面为100％。2000年末，40个区县显性负债总余额达1896201万元，每个区县平均负债余额47405万元。而至2004年末，40个区县显性负债总余额达3436059万元，每个区县平均负债余额85901万元，区县平均负债余额年均增长95％。就结构而言，区县政府显性负债主要是直接显性负债；直接显性负债中又主要是由解决地方金融风险专项借款、国内金融组织其他借款、向单位借款、国债转贷资金四部分。乡镇政府负债在A市也十分普遍。2000年-2004年，抽取的33个乡镇平均每年显性负债总余额为26734.75万元，平均每个乡镇显性负债余额为808.20万元。(5)县域政府过度负债蕴含着巨大的债务风险。实证资料表明，县域政府的负债规模较大，财政负债率太高，债务负担率较重，政府债务依存度较高，债务居民个人负担率高，地方经济的长期应债能力、长期还债与借债能力较差，县域政府负债隐含着巨大的风险。根据A市40个区县的资料分析表明，2000-2004年，区县政府平均财政负债率为367.06％，平均债务负担率为15.41％，债务依存度均值18.69％，平均债务居民个人负担率为40.83％。2001-2004年，区县政府平均债务余额增长率与GDP增长率之比为165.08％，处于危机区。其中有43年个观测值处于危机区，占总观测值的26.9％；10个观测值处于高风险区，占观测值的6.3％。(6)县域政府负债风险具有相关性、隐蔽性、不均衡性和传递性的特征，对经济社会的和谐发展将产生不利影响。县域政府负债风险与县域经济体内私人风险和公共风险密切相关。私人风险的发生和蔓延，转化成为公共风险，最终带来负债风险。县域政府负债不仅包括显性负债，还包括了隐性负债。这些隐性负债来源广、领域宽，只有积累到一定程度，发生财政危机、政府信任危机时，人们才能直接感觉它的危害性。各县域经济体之间的负债风险差别也很大的。经济欠发达的县乡，政府负债主要是弥补经常性财政开支的不足，负债并没有促进经济的增长，致使贫困的区县负债规模越来越大，负债风险不断增加。县域政府负债风险的聚积加剧了社会风险的形成，降低了财政支出绩效，对农民收入产生了不利影响，同时还恶化了社会环境。(7)县域政府负债风险的形成与累积有其特殊的背景与原因。县域政府负债风险的形成、累积与中国的财政经济改革关系密切。其首要的原因在于，整个国家的风险防范体系还不健全，尤其是保险体系、社会风险防范体系、金融风险管理体系不健全，致使很多风险的聚积最终向政府转移，从而形成政府负债风险。其二是县域政府的财政与事权不对称。县域政府拥有相对较少的财权，而具有相对较多的事权，为了完成辖区内的各种管理事务，县域政府只能以负债的方式解决资金紧张的问题。其三是县域政府的短期行为和非理性行为。其四是缺乏对县域政府负债风险的科学管理。2．论文的重要观点(1)县域经济在国民经济发展中具有举轻重的作用，县域经济是国民经济发展的重要基础，各级政府应当高度重视县域经济的发展。(2)县域政府负债已成为当今社会一个普遍现象，有其历史与现实的必然性。县域政府过度负债已严重阻碍县域经济社会发展和县域政府职能的正常发挥和机构的正常运作。(3)县域政府过度负债已形成了严重的债务风险，要高度重视县域政府负债无人监管现象，如果不加以重视与控制，将酿成严重的经济危机和社会危机。(4)科学有效地强化县域政府负债风险的控制和监管，必须转变县域政府的职能，规范各级政府的职责和负债行为。3．论文的主要创新本文对县域政府负债风险问题进行了较深入的研究。其主要创新之处在于：(1)基于县域政府的财权事权、县域经济的初始条件与制度约束，提出当前县域政府负债有其历史与现实的必然性，从负债成本与收益角度建立了县域政府负债的理论分析框架。(2)建立了县域政府负债风险的静态与动态模型，从静态与动态两个视角分析了导致县域政府负债风险的各种因素，对县域政府负债风险的生成机理进行了深入系统的阐释。(3)运用实际调查资料，对县域政府的负债规模与结构、负债风险的现状进行了全面揭示，对县域政府负债风险的成因与影响进行了新的分析与阐释。创造性地运用粗糙集理论，对县域政府负债风险的敏感因子进行了筛选，建立了县域政府负债风险的测度与预警模型及相应的预警体系。(4)对县域政府负债风险的监测体系与监管机制进行了全新的研究，并从县域政府经济职能转变与职能定位的角度，对县域政府负债风险的规范进行深入研究，提出了建立财政风险、金融风险和社会风险的国家综合监控体系等措施与战略。4．政策建议(1)多渠道化解县域政府负债存量，减轻财政历史包袱。县域政府负债负债规模较大，负债风险高位运行，负债问题已是积重难返，沉疴癔结。当务之急必须多渠道化解县域政府负债存量，减轻财政历史包袱，否则负债风险会进一步加剧。首先，要全面彻底清理和整顿县域政府债务，核定历史存量。为清楚地反映县域政府债务风险的现状和严重程度，要组织由财政、银行、计委、审计等各个部门组成的债务清理联合调查委员会，对县域政府债务进行全面的调查和清理，特别是隐性和或有债务一定要进行全面地核查。搞清楚究竟有哪些类型债务，严重程度如何，对县乡财政风险有什么长期和短期的影响。对于现有的债务进行清理整顿，分清楚哪些是应该由县域政府承担的，哪些应该是由企业或者民间组织承担的，将风险控制在可控的范围内，防止其他领域的风险转化为县乡财政的直接风险。其次，要成立县域政府债务风险化解的专门机构，确定县域政府负债风险的化解目标，制定县域政府负债风险化解的各选方案，督促相关单位积极开展县域政府负债风险化解工作。再次要建立合理的偿债机制。要根据责任归属，明确中央政府和地方政府的偿债责任；要给地方政府开辟合法的多方式融资渠道，允许有条件的省级地方政府发行地方债券；要进行资本运作，引进多渠道资金，通过置换、冲销等多种方式化解政府财政历史包袱。(2)转变县域政府职能，建立科学的地方政府绩效考核制度。首先，要转变县域政府职能，将原来无所不能的“无限政府”向有所为有所不为的“有限政府”转变，从注重计划控制的“有限政府”向注重绩效的“效能政府”转变；要强化县域政府的指导作用，县域政府要加强区域经济发展指导，提出符合本地比较优势的发展战略与产业政策，加强对区域发展的协调和宏观指导；要树立县域政府的服务意识，要建设“招商、亲商、安商”的发展环境，降低本地的交易成本。其次，要充分利用行政、法律及民主监督等多方式建立政府行为规范制度，避免县域政府行为的随意性。尤其是要避免县域政府不合理的负债成本转移行为。使县域政府负债成本与收益内部化，避免政府短期行为的产生。最后，县域政府职能的真正转变，离不开科学的地方政府绩效考核制度建立。要改变以GDP为中心的考核目标体系，建立以降低交易成本、社会经济环境和谐发展为核心的、新型绩效考核制度。(3)科学界定县域政府的财权与事权。县域政府财权与事权的不对称是形成现有负债风险的重要原因，也是县域政府负债扩张的借口。重新划分县域政府的财权与事权是防止负债风险进一步恶化的关键。首先要正确理顺中央与地方的财政关系。在科学划分中央与地方政府事权的基础上，合理界定各级财政支出范围，逐步做到中央政府事权由中央政府负担支出，地方政府事权由地方财政负担支出，中央与地方的共同事权，也要以规范的方式确定下来；在收入方面，也要适当调整中央与地方财政的收入范围；在管理权限方面，可适当下放，让地方政府有权管理、调整新开征地方税种，如对一些不影响国民经济全局的地方小税种逐步由地方立法，报国家备案。要建立规范的政府间转移支付制度，将增量分配和存量分配统筹考虑，按因素法计算，本着既要有利于促进经济发达地区继续保持较快的发展势头，又要扶持经济不发达地区的发展原则，合理确定县乡的支出水平和转移支付数额，以解决和缩小各地财力的差异，尤其是对于贫困山区更要实行政策倾斜，使之加快经济发展。(4)尽快健全县域政府负债风险的监测预警机制。县域政府负债风险具有隐蔽性、累计性的特点，风险一旦暴发，其危害性极大。通过建立和健全县域政府负债监测机制，充分发挥其监测功能，可有助于从事后的发现和化解风险尽快转向事前预警和预防风险，同时减少相应的损失。首先要把握县域政府负债风险的特点，明确县域政府债务风险监测目标，建立科学的债务风险评估与分析标准，建立县域政府债务风险监测信号与识别机制、县域政府债务风险监测的中间控制机制和县域政府债务风险监测的调节传导机制，形成持续的、动态的、有差别的监测系统。其次要建立科学的风险预警机制，要从分析影响县域政府负债风险的静态与动态因素出发，找出引起县域经济负债的警兆指标，构建县域政府负债风险的预警体系。要充分运用居民个人偿债率、债务依存度、债务的平均偿还年限、财政偿债率、地方政府债务余额增长率／地方GDP增长率、地方财政年偿债额增长率／地方财政收入增长率等六个风险敏感指标进行负债风险预警。(5)加快建立和完善县域政府负债风险的科学监管体系。县域政府缺乏有效的监管是造成负债规模逐年扩大的主要原因。为了确保县域经济可持续发展，将负债风险降低到最小程度，迫切需要对县域经济负债风险进行全面科学的监管，要按照依法、审慎、全面、全程、综合的监管原则，把县域政府负债风险控制在安全范围内。为此必须要构建“借、用、还”和“责、权、利”相统一的监管体系。要完善监管的组织与制度建设，建立负债风险监管信息系统、负债风险监管评价系统、政府危机预警监管系统、社会舆论监管系统和法律监管系统，建立、健全政府债务危机处理系统，建立债务风险监管的操作机制与减震机制，探索审计、财政、人大及社会舆论的综合监管模式。(6)建立国家综合风险管理体系，完善财政风险、金融风险和社会风险的联合防控与综合预警机制。由于财政“兜底”的客观存在，事实上，各种私人风险、公共风险、金融风险，最终都会转化为政府债务风险。为了防范与化解政府债务风险，必须要建立、健全国家综合风险管理体系。首先要加强保险体系的建设，加大险种开发与创新，大力促进农业保险、信用保险的发展。其次要完善社会风险防范体系，建立自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生、社会治安等突发事件的防范与预警体系。再次，要健全金融风险管理体系。无论是区县政府，还是乡镇政府，大约有1／3的债务是由于解决金融风险而形成的，金融风险财政化的现象极为普遍。目前必须强化金融企业的金融风险意识，加强国家金融风险监控，防止金融风险的聚积。最后，要建立财政风险、金融风险和社会风险的联合防控与综合预警机制，做好整个社会风险总量控制与风险结构的优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper makes a theoretical and positive study on the debt risk of county government. Based on the theories of county economy development, fiscal management, risk management and sustainable development, this thesis studies the connotation, debt motivation, formative mechanism and influential factors of the debt risk of county government, and also establishes both the theoretic model and the empirical model for measurement and forecast on debt risk of country government. After empirically examining its present situation, the causes and influences of debt risk of county economy are exposed. According to the economic and social responsibilities of county government and development tendency of future county economy, the paper probes into the early-warning and supervising system for government debt risk of county economy, and some policy proposals about prevention and dissolution of the county government debt risk are put forward.1. Conclusions(1) Moderate debt scale of county government is rational at present Although the Budget Law prescribes that the local government should balance the budget, what is worth of paying attention to is that most of the debt risk of the county government has been formed and the number is quite large. Many county governments need new debt to pay the old debt back to avoid payment crisis. If the county governments’ debt were not allowed, many of them would sink into crisis, the whole payment chain would break down and the financial and social crisis would break out. In addition, capital shortage is the key factor to restrict county economy and social development. Moderate debt can largely alleviate this problem and provide the capital for ensuring the county agriculture industrialization, enterprise reform and urbanization. So it’s necessary for county government to have moderate debt.(2) The debt extension is the result of balance of debt’s return and cost, high return and low cost on short term together push the county debt to excessive amount In the county government’s total return function (R), discount rate P is an important variable. The larger the P is, the less debt’s future return contributes to present return, and P is always supposed to be large when the government officials are frequently rotated. The debt cost has close relation to government’s debt risk. The higher the risk is, the larger the cost is. Due to county government’s particularity, the debt cost can’t be completely internalized but can be transferred by the upper government’s guarantee, the county government’ rights usage, the vulnerable group’s involuntarily dealing with debt, etc. So with the pushes of high retum and low cost on short run, the motivation to expand the debt is obvious.(3) Debt risk of local government is determined by static and dynamic factors, The static factor that induces the debt of country government mainly comes from two aspects. One is the debt behavior of government. When there is large stock amount of government debt and heavy historical burden, there must be large unpaid debt balance, and the possibility that the income is smaller than the payout is going to rise consequentially. When debt cost is higher, or the debt structure is unreasonable, the possibility of payment crisis will nm higher as well. Another is net cash flow of county government in the same year. When the revenue income decreases, while expenditure increases, or the financing approach of government is blocked, the possibility of occurring of payment crisis is higher than before. From the dynamic facet, the main factors that determine the debt risk are economy growth and debt cost. When the economy of local government is stagnant, debt burden of government will incline to infinity, and debt risk of local government is going to occur; when the debt cost is higher than economy growth, and new debt increases unlimitedly, debt burden of govemment will incline to infinity, and debt risk exists consequentially.(4) Total scale of county government’s debt is quite large and the phenomenon of over-debt in government is prevalent. According to 2000-2004 years’ statistical data of A city, the explicit debt in counties or towns of A city was 100%. At the end of 2000, the overall balance of dominant debt in 40 counties or towns reached 18, 962, 010 thousand Yuan, the average balance of debt was 474, 050 thousand Yuan. And at the end of 2004, the overall balance of dominant debt in 40 counties or towns reached 34, 360, 590 thousand Yuan, the average balance of debt increased 95% annually. As far as structure is concerned, explicit debt of county is mainly direct explicit-debt, which includes four parts such as, special loan for solving local financial risk, other loan of domestic financial institutions, loan from unit, conversion capital from national debt. Town government debt is also common in A city. In 2000-2004 year, the average overall balance of annually explicit debt in 33 towns drew out from A city is 267, 347.5 thousand Yuan, the average balance of explicit debt in each town is 8, 082 thousand Yuan.(5) High debt risk is behind the excessive debt of county government in China. The statistics shows that the causes of high debt risk of county government lie in the large scale and high rate of debt, heavy debt burden, highly debt dependence of government, high personal burden of debt residents, low abilities of borrowing and returning debt etc. According to the 40 counties and towns’ statistics, from 2000 to 2004, the average rate of fiscal debt is 367.06%, the average debt burden rate is 15.41%, the average debt dependence is 18.06%, the average personal burden of debt residents’ rate is 40.83%. The ratio of average debt growth rate and GDP growth rate is 165.08% in the crisis region. Among them 43 observant values is in crisis, accounting for 26.9% of the total number, and 10 observant values is in high risk, accounting for 6.3%.(6) The county government’s debt risk has characteristics including relevance, invisibility, non-proportionality and transitivity, and unfavorably affects the social harmonious development. The debt risk correlates with the personal and public risk in the county and town economy. Occurrence and extension of the personal risk can be transformed into public risk and then debt risk. The government debt includes explicit and tacit debt. The harm of the tacit debt can be directly felt only when it accumulates to some extent and fiscal and government trust crisis occurs. The debt risk among each county economy is differential. In the less developing counties and towns, the debt is used for insufficient continuous fiscal expenditure and it doesn’t promote the economy development. So the scale of debt grows larger and the risk rises, which forms the social risk, lowers the fiscal expenditure performance, engenders unfavorable effect on the peasants’ income and deteriorates the social environment(7) The reasons for the form and accumulation of county government’s debt risk may be explained as follows. Firstly, due to the whole nation’s unhealthy risk precaution system, especially insurance system, social risk precaution system and finance risk management system, many risks clustered transfer to the government and then form the government debt risk. Secondly, the asymmetry between less financial rights and more government duties causes government to deal with capital shortage by debt. The third is the short-term actions and irrationality of the county government, and the fourth lies in the lack of scientific management of county government debt.2. Main perspectives(1) Country economy plays an important role in national economy, every government branch should pay attention to the development of country economy.(2) Government debt of country economy is a common phenomenon of modem society, and has its historic and practical necessity. Excessive country government debt impedes the development of country economy and role plays and ordinary operation of government organization.(3) Excessive debt of county government induces severe debt risks, which will lead to economic and social crisis if it is overseen and is not under control.(4) In order to strengthen control and supervision debt risk of county government, we should transfer government function, regulate duties and debt activities.3. Some suggestions(1) Dissolve the county government’s debt stock variable through various ways, relieving the historical burdens. Since the scale of the county government’s debt is huge, debt risk circulates highly, the problem has becoming serious and stubborn. The most important thing for the government is to resolving the county government’s debt stock variable through various ways, otherwise the liability risk situation will become worse. In the frost place, the government should clean and rectify the country or town government’s debt, check the historical stock variable. For cleanly displaying the current situation and serious level of the county government’s debt, the government should organize the federal debt cleaning committee, which is composed of fiscal department, banking department and accounting department, to investigate the country or town government’s debt in every aspect, especially to investigate the hidden or Potential debt completely. The aim of doing this is to make clear what the type and degree of the debt and what short run and long run influence they will post on the county’s debt risk. As to the rectifying of the current debt, what should be made clear is that which part the government should bear and which part the enterprise or non-government organization should bear. The county government ought to make the risk in control to avoid the risks in other range becoming the county’s risks. In the second place, the country or town government should found the professional organization to resolving the county government’s debt risk. The government also has to confirm the aim of the resolving the risks, draw up the country or town’s risk-resolving reserve project and urge the relevant department to carry out the risk-resolving work. The govcrnment should also establish rational debt-payment system, which means in line with the responsibility-belonging regulations, the debt’ responsibility should be delimited between the central government and local government. Meanwhile, various financing tools should be opened to local government, allowing some province governments that have the condition to issue its government’s bonds. Through capital operation, raising funds through various ways and resolving the government’s history burdens in the way of replacement and offset.(2) Transfer the function of the county government, establishing scientific performance-evaluation system for local government. Firstly, we should transfer the function of the county government. The government ought to change from the infinite-government to the limited-government, from the limited-government concerning planning and controlling to the efficiency-government which is concerning the performance; the guiding function should be strengthened, which means the country or town government ought to strengthen the guiding of the regional economy development, put forward developing strategy and industry policy suitable to local compared-advantage and strengthen the harmony of the area development and macro guiding. Meanwhile, the county government must erect the service-conscious, which means the government should create the "attracting the business, accommodating the business, intimating the business" developing environment, lower the local transaction cost. Secondly, the country or town government should establish the government behavior regulation system through taking full use of administrable, lawful and democratic monitoring methods to avoid the county government’s behavior at will, especially to avoid the irrational behavior of transferring the debt and the cost of the government. The government ought to try best to make the government’s debt and cost internal to avoid the occurring of the government’s shortsighted behavior. The last but not the least, the real transformation of county government’s function cannot do without establishing of scientific performance-evaluation system for local government, whose core is not GDP but is to lower the transaction cost and to pursue the harmony development between the environment and the economic.(3) Consummate the detached-tax system, redefine the financial right and working right of country government The asymmetry of financial right and working right is an important cause of existing debt risks and is a country government’s excuse for expanding the debts. Redefining the financial right and working right of country government is the key to prevent further deterioration of debt risks. Firstly, we should clear up the financial relationship between central government and local government. Financial expenditure scope should be made rationally on the basis of adjusting working rights between central government and local government scientifically. Central government is to take charge of central government’s own working right, and so as to local government. Their common working rights have to be confirmed normatively. As to the revenue, it has to adjust the revenue scope of the central and local governments properly. With regard to the manage preview, local government should be authorized to manage and adjust newly collected regional taxes. For example, some indifferent regional taxes that don’t affect the general economy can be stipulated in law by country government and be put on records by the country. It is necessary to establish normal transferring payment system among governments, planning the increment distribution and subsistent amount distribution as a whole. On the principle of supporting underdeveloped areas, while keeping the rapid improving tendency of developed areas, we must arrange country expenditure level and transferring payment amount in order to resolve and deflate financial differences among different areas. We should put favorable policies to the poor mountainous areas to speed up their development.(4) Liabilities risks inspecting and defending mechanism of country economic government are to be established and perfected. Country government’s debt risk is concealed and accumulated, it will bring many bad effects when it breaks out. Establishing the mechanism of debt inspection and playing its function in country government will greatly help us to prevent the risks beforehand, but not finding and solving it afterwards as before. It can reduce the relevant loss at the same time. Above all, we should know about the characteristics of country government’s debts, explicate the aim of debt inspection, build scientific standards of evaluating and analyzing the debt risks and set up inspecting and identifying mechanism, in order to form persistent, dynamic and discriminating inspect system. Next, from analyzing the dynamic and static factors, which influence the liabilities risks of country government, we have to find out the foreshowing indexes, which cause the liabilities, and establish a defending system. Debt risks will be prevented by using such impressible indicators as individual’s repay rate, debts dependence rate, average fixed number of year for repaying debts, reimburse rate of finance, local government’s liabilities balance increasing rate/local GDP increasing rate, the increasing rate of local finance amount repaid p. a. /increasing rate of local finance revenue and so on.(5) Establish and enhance debt risk supervision and management system of county government. The main reason that causes the debt scale’s annually increasing is the county government’s ineffective supervision and management. In order to ensure sustainable development of county economy and minimize debt risk, overall scientific supervision on the debt risk of county economy is urgently needed. According to lawful, prudence, overall, whole process and comprehensive supervising principle, debt risk of county government should be controlled in the safe scope. So we should construct the supervising system uniting "borrowing, using and returning" and "duty, right and benefit", to enhance supervising organization and regulation construction and establish debt risk supervision information system, debt risk supervision and evaluation system, government crisis early-warning supervising system, social press and law supervision system, to establish and perfect government debt risk management system, to establish debt risk supervision and management operation mechanism and damping mechanism and to inquiry for audit、finance、people’s congress and society press supervision and management model.(6) Construct national comprehensive risk management system, perfect associated prevention, control and comprehensive early-warning mechanism about fiscal risk, financial risk and social risk. Owing to financial insurance existed objectively, in fact, all kinds of personal risk、public risk、financial risk transfer to the gov(?)rnment debt risk finally. In order to prevent and dissolve government debt risk, national comprehensive risk management system should be established and enhanced. First of all, strengthen insurance system, developing and innovating new kinds of insurance, advancing agriculture and credit insurance development. Secondly, construct social risk prevention system and establish prevention and early-warning system about nature crisis、accident crisis、public sanitation、society police and so on. Thirdly, enhance financial risk management system. No matter whether county government or town government, about one third debt comes from resolving financial risk with prevail method of transferring financial risk to fiscal. At present, we should strengthen financial risk consciousness of financial corporations, enhance national financial risk supervision and control to prevent financial risk from accumulating. Finally, establish comprehensive prevention, control and early-warning mechanism about fiscal risk, financial risk and social risk, and control the whole risks of the society and optimize the structure. ##原图像不清晰更多还原