【作者】 李文；

【导师】 汪三贵；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文属于社会科学领域、农业经济管理范畴内的有关贫困问题的研究,是一项关于农村道路项目对减缓贫困影响的实证研究。 中国政府高度重视贫困地区道路对经济发展和减缓贫困的作用。特别是西部大开发使农村基础设施建设进入了前所未有的旺盛发展时期。但包括道路在内的基础设施究竟给贫困地区的减缓贫困带来多少影响?这些影响通过哪些途径产生?受益群体主要是谁?扶贫投资效率如何等等,大量的问题迫切需要进行科学的评估和分析,特别是因果关系的分析。这将对政府的扶贫投资规模、方向和瞄准目标等重大决策的确定产生重要影响。而我国在扶贫项目影响评估和分析工作还有待于进一步加强。 本文研究是针对重庆市5个贫困区、县2001-2004年间实施的道路建设项目给减缓贫困的影响进行分析。主要采用双差异比较法、参与式评估法和建立计量经济模型的定量分析法。双差异分析法通过项目村和对照村的比较,可以很好地过滤掉其它因素对项目村农户减贫的影响,因此,主要用来对道路项目给项目村农户带来的变化进行描述性分析。参与式评估法用来解释描述性分析结果的产生背景和过程,使结果更具有说服力。另外,由于获取了包括道路投资和所有其他到村投资数据,因此,利用计量分析模型可以控制其他投资对减缓贫困产生的影响,从而可以更科学和准确地判断道路投资对减缓贫困产生的影响。同时,也可以进一步验证描述性分析的结果。本文的资料来源于2001年和2004年共两次农户家庭(619户)问卷跟踪调查、3次案例跟踪调查和到村投资调查。 研究结论主要有四点:第一,道路项目较大程度地改善了项目村的贫困现状。项目村贫困发生率、贫困深度指数和贫困强度指数有较大幅度下降,且下降幅度均大于对照村。第二,贫困人口的变化最大。就变化而言,项目村贫困人口是道路项目最大的受益者。第三,道路项目通过提高农业生产率、促进农户特别是贫困户外出打工、促进本地各种私营活动的发展和提高农户生存发展能力等途径对减缓贫困产生影响。第四,在位于武陵山区的这五个贫困区、县修建农村道路,可以得到较高的回报。 这些结论有重要的政策含义,即在贫困山区修建山区低等级道路对农户收入的提高有较高的回报,且减缓贫困效果显著。因此,在社会主义新农村运动的基础设施投入策略中,政府应优先考虑修建更多的技术等级略低、投资相对较小、与农户生活、生产经营关系密切的通村公路或自然村之间的村内公路,力争在更短的时间内集中有限的资金,收到更好的减缓贫困效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dealing with poverty issues, this dissertation falls into category of social sciences and agricultural economics management. The dissertation is an empirical study on the impact of rural road program upon poverty reduction.The Chinese government attaches great importance to the impact of road programs in poverty-stricken regions on economic development and poverty reduction. West development, in particular, has put rural infrastructure construction into an unprecedented bloom. However, how much impact does infrastructure construction including road produce on poverty reduction in poverty-stricken regions? What are those channels by which the poverty reduction impact being produced? What are the beneficiary groups? How about the efficiency of poverty reduction investment? These are the issues among many others that need serious analysis and evaluation. This will generate crucial impact on important government decisions on the scale, direction and target of poverty reduction investment, whereas evaluation and analysis work on poverty reduction programs in China remains to be strengthened.The purpose of the dissertation is to analyze the impact of road program carried out between 2001 and 2004 on poverty reduction in the five poverty-stricken districts (counties) of Chongqing. The dissertation mainly adopts quantitative analysis methods including double-difference comparison, participatory evaluation and econometric model. Double-difference analysis method can nicely wipe off other factors’ impact on poverty reduction by comparing program village and control village, therefore this method is used for descriptive analysis of household changes brought about by road programs in program village. Participatory evaluation method is introduced to interpret the background and process which produce those outputs in descriptive analysis and make the results more convincing. In addition, econometric model can control the impact of other investment on poverty reduction since all other village investment data including road investment is available, thus the poverty reduction impact of road investment can be estimated more scientifically and exactly. The econometric method can also verify results from descriptive analysis. Data for the dissertation comes from two-round household surveys for 619 households, three case surveys and village investment survey conducted in 2001 and 2004.Four major analysis conclusions come out. Firstly, road program greatly improved poverty situations of program village. Poverty incidence, poverty depth index and poverty severity index declined significantly compared to control village. Secondly, changes in the poor population are the greatest. In term of changes, the poor were the supreme beneficiary of road program. Thirdly, road program reduced poverty by way of enhancing agricultural productivity, facilitating emigrate employment for rural household especially poor households, promoting private business, and improving development capability for rural households. Fourthly, constructing rural roads in the five poor districts (counties) in Wuling mountain of Chongqing can receive relatively high returns.These conclusions have important policy implications, namely, construction of low-grademountain roads in poor mountain areas can obtain relatively high returns in term of increasing household income and have notable effects on poverty reduction. Therefore, government should give priority to construction of village road and within village road with low-grade technique and investment requirements in infrastructure investment strategies in the movement of new socialist countryside. Better poverty reduction effects are expected to achieve even with limited fund and shorter time since these roads are closely related to household life and production.更多还原