中国财政风险研究

【作者】 呼显岗；

【导师】 常云昆；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来，我国在经济高速增长的同时，政府债务规模却在不断扩大。特别是1998年实施积极财政政策以来，连续7年发行的9100亿元国债，使我国政府债务规模急剧扩大。在这种情况下，我国政府债务是否会引发财政风险，就成为国内外学术界关注的焦点，并形成了对这一问题的研究热潮。但是，到目前，我国财政究竟是否存在风险，如果存在，风险有多大，学术界并没有统一的认识。至于财政风险的形成原因和防范、化解对策的研究，大多停留在分析各项政府债务形成的具体原因和如何化解政府存量债务上，缺乏从我国经济转轨的制度安排上进行的深层次研究。因此，准确评估我国财政风险状况，从经济转轨的制度安排上深入研究我国财政风险的形成机制，并提出有针对性的政策建议，对于防范化解我国财政风险，保持财政可持续性具有非常重要的现实意义。 本文对我国财政风险研究采用了抽象与实证、规范相结合的方法。首先运用抽象方法研究了私人风险向公共风险的转化机制以及公共风险的形成机制，并以此提出了财政风险的评估框架。其次运用实证方法评估了我国财政的风险状况，分析了我国财政风险的形成原因。最后运用规范方法研究了防范和化解我国财政风险应该采取的对策。 本文分七章：第一章为导言；第二章为国内外财政风险研究的理论述评；第三章为财政风险的评估框架；第四章为我国财政风险的评估；第五章为我国财政风险的成因分析；第六章为防范和化解我国财政风险的对策；第七章为结论。 本文可能的创新之处和主要结论： (1)全面研究了私人风险向公共风险的转化机制和公共风险的形成机制。国内外学者虽然对私人风险向公共风险的转化机制以及公共风险的形成机制进行了研究，但散见于保险学、金融学等学科之中，并未进行全面概括和归纳。本文将人类面临的风险分为非经济风险和经济风险，并从这两个方面研究了私人风险向公共风险的转化机制和公共风险的形成机制。私人非经济风险向公共非经济风险的转化机制是：如果非经济风险中的私人风险，企业、家庭、个人等经济主体无法回避，也无力自留，而且也无法通过保险市场向其他经济主体分散，并且产生广泛外部性，不仅给其他经济主体造成损失，而且严重影响区域甚至国家经济发展和社会稳定，那么，这些私人非经济风险就转化成了公共非经济风险。私人经济风险向公共经济风险的转化机制是：如果一个国家产权界定不清、企业制度不健全以及股票市场和金融衍生工具市场不完善，私人经济风险就无法得到有效抑制、分散、转移和抵消，部分私人经济风险就会聚集和膨胀，大大超过企业、家庭、个人等单个经济主体承受能力，并产生广泛外部性，进而影响其他市场主体，甚至影响整个国家经济运行和社会稳定，那么，这部分私人经济风险就转化更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese economy has been developing rapidly since reform and opening-up to the outside world, but at the same time the Chinese governmental debts have been expanding continuously. Especially Since implementing positive fiscal policy in 1998, 910 billion national debts have been issued continuously in 7 years, which caused the amount of Chinese governmental debts to expand sharply. In this situation, whether Chinese governmental debts will bring fiscal risks or not becomes the focus in academia, and also brings research upsurge. But up to now, whether Chinese governmental debts come into being fiscal risks or not, if coming into being, how much the risks are, the scholars don’t attain agreement about these. The scholars only analyze what the reason the various governmental debts gather and how to solve them. The deep researches on institutional arrangement of economics system transformation are scarce. So we should evaluate accurately the degree of Chinese fiscal risks, research deeply on the generating mechanism of them from institutional arrangement of economic system transformation, and propose relevant policy recommendation, which are important to prevent and solve fiscal risks and keep fiscal continuity.This paper researches on Chinese fiscal risks in combining abstract method with positive method and normative method. Firstly it researches on the transformation mechanism from private risks to public risks and the generating mechanism of the public risks in abstract method, and brings forward the frame which can evaluate the fiscal risks. Secondly it evaluates the degree of Chinese fiscal risks and analyzes the generating reason of Chinese fiscal risks in positive method. Finally it suggests the countermeasures which should be taken to prevent and solve fiscal risks in normative method.There are totally 7 chapters in the paper: the chapterl is preface, the second is review of fiscal risks theory of Chinese and overseas scholars, the third is the evaluation frame of fiscal risks, the fourth is evaluation of Chinese fiscal risks, the fifth is analysis of the reason of Chinese fiscal risks, the sixth is how to t prevent and solve e Chinese fiscal risks, the seventh is conclusion.The main conclusion and innovation of the paper:(1) The paper researches completely on the transformation mechanism from private risks to public risks and the generating mechanism of the public risks. Although there are some researches on the mechanisms in Chinese and overseas academia, but they are scattered in insurance and finance studies etc, have not been更多还原