【作者】 曾勇；

【导师】 李必强；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,电子商务正在蓬勃发展,以电子商务为核心的信息化已成为社会和经济发展的主要趋势。但是,相对于传统的市场而言,在线交易的非人格化特性和信息的不对称性使买卖双方更难建立信任。网络欺诈一直困扰着虚拟市场的各相关利益主体,电子商务信用风险成为国内外经济管理研究的一个热点。本文集市场营销理论、风险学、博弈论、伦理学、系统动力学、超循环理论、人工神经网络、实验经济学等多学科的理论和方法,对电子商务信用风险的基本概念、电子商务信用风险对在线消费行为的影响机理、电子商务信用风险的形成机理和避减机制进行了系统的研究,提出了一些新概念、新原理和新方法。 其一,建立了全文分析的基础平台。主要内容包括:利用文献研究、归纳等方法,界定了电子商务、电子商务信用和电子商务信用风险等基本概念,提出并阐释了表征电子商务信用风险的基本范畴:感知信用风险率;探讨了感知安全和感知隐私等相关范畴,并揭示了这些基本范畴之间的逻辑关系;描述了电子商务信用风险的基本特性和构成。 其二,以虚拟市场商务活动的基本特性、经营特点以及虚拟市场商务活动的局限性为出发点,剖析了在线消费者的需求特征、心理特征和行为特征;并结合国内外对在线消费影响因素的研究,构建了在线消费影响因素模型,该模型认为,感知网上购物有用、感知网上购物方便和感知网上购物安全是影响在线消费的主要因素;最后,深入探讨了电子商务信用风险这一特殊因素对在线消费的影响机理,构建了基于电子商务信用风险的站点导向模型和基于电子商务信用风险的信用导向模型。站点导向模型揭示了电子商务信用风险与站点特性、在线购物态度和在线购物意向的关系。信用导向模型揭示了电子商务信用风险通过两条路径影响在线消费行为:其一,电子商务信用风险—在线购物态度—在线购物意向—购买行为,其二,电子商务信用风险—在线购物意向—购买行为。根据该模型,电子商务信用风险是一个复杂的中间变量,其自身也受多种因素的影响。 其三,运用博弈论和非线性理论阐述了电子商务信用风险的形成机理。首先讨论了博弈论应用于电子商务信用风险形成的基本原理;据此,分析了电子商务各主要利益相关体(卖方、买方和管理者)在进行信用模式选择决策、交易决策时的相互影响;运用博弈论建立了“卖方—买方”和“卖方—卖方”的静态和动态博弈模型,以及“交易者—管理者”两阶段的博弈模型;讨论了模更多还原

【Abstract】 E-business has been booming in recent years. Society is progressing toward the information age. However, the impersonal nature of online transaction and information asymmetry make it more difficult to build trust between sellers and buyers than in traditional market. Therefore, Internet fraud has been haunting stock holders in virtual market. Trust risk in e-business is a hotspot of economic management research. This thesis makes integrative use of marketing theories, risk theory, game theory, ethnics, system dynamics, super-cycle theory, artificial neural network and experimental economics to research systematically the basic notion of trust risk in e-business, the effect of trust risk in e-business on online transaction, the formation and relief mechanism of trust risk, and develops some new concepts, principles and methods.Firstly, this thesis establishes a basic analysis platform. It defines the basic concepts of e-business, trust in e-business and trust risk in e-business, put forwards and explains the basic category that represents trust risk in e-business: perceived trust risk rate(PTRR). It discusses also the concepts closely relative to PTRR: perceived safety and perceived privacy, opens out the relation between these concepts, describes the basic characteristics and components of trust risk in e-business.Secondly, based on the analysis of the basic and management characteristics of business in virtual market and on the analysis of the localization of business in virtual market, the thesis analyzes the demand, psychology and behavior characteristic of online transaction. Integrating the researches on the factors affecting online transaction, this thesis sets up the model of the factors affecting online transaction. According to this model, perceived usefulness, perceived convenience and perceived safety in online transaction are the main elements affecting online transaction. And then, the thesis discusses the effect of trust risk in e-business on online transaction, sets up the web-oriented model and trust-oriented model based on trust risk in e-business. The web-oriented model describes the relation between trust risk in e-business, web nature, online transaction attitude and will. The trust-oriented model opens out that trust risk in e-business affects online transaction by 2 ways: the first way is the following: trust risk in e-business—online transaction attitude—online transaction will—online transaction. The second is: e-business—online transaction will—online transaction. According to this model, trust risk in e-business is a kind of mediating variable which is affected by many elements.Thirdly, making use of game theory and nonlinear theory, this thesis interprets the formation mechanism of trust risk in e-business. In the first place, it interprets the formation mechanism of trust risk in e-commence based on game theory,analyzes interaction between stock holders (sellers, buyers and administrators) in the course of the trust mode choosing and transaction decision making, sets up the static and dynamic game models of sellers—buyers and sellers—sellers, two-stages game models of traders—administrators, discusses the equilibrium solution in different conditions and puts forward the significance and measures to take according these models. According to the analysis, the result of the games between stock holds represent the state of trust risk in e-business.And then, the thesis analyzes the factors (technology, culture, transaction, market, individual and management) and mechanism affecting trust risk in e-business, brings forward the formation mechanism of trust risk in e-business based on system dynamics, super-cycle theory and artificial neural net-work. Based on system dynamics, the thesis sets up the dynamic model and iterative model which describes the subsystems and the relation between the subsystems. Based on super-cycle theory, the thesis puts forward the reaction cycle, catalytic cycle and super cycle of trust risk system in e-business, points out that the super-cycle makes the system self-stabling and self-optimizing. Based on artificial neural network, the thesis sets up the supervised formation model of trust risk in e-business and the identifying model of trust risk in e-business. The identifying model can make use of all the information of swatches concerning trust risk in e-business, opens out the interaction between PTRR and the factors affecting PTRR. The model completely overcomes the difficulties of PTRR measuring or model constructing and its solving in PTRR identifying.Fourthly, taking trust risk relief service (TRRS) as an entrance of research, the thesis probes into the evading mechanism of trust risk in e-business, which includes:!. the operation mechanism of TRRS: Online trust service providers(OTSP) hold a sum of money of buyers;2. factors(transaction, market, individual and management ) and mechanism affecting adoption of TRRS in e-business, 3. decision-making mechanism of adoption of TRRS;4 the best price determination of TRRS;5. the operation mechanism of the representative online trust service—trust seal.Finally, the thesis empirically analyzes some theories of trust risk in e-business. Utilizing questionnaires et interview, this thesis investigates the situation of trust risk in e-business in our country, including enterprise and consumer trust consciousness, trust scope, trust influence, participation in e-business, and the reasons that people don’t participate in e-business. Making use of methods of experimental economics, the thesis also empirically analyzes the factors affecting online transaction, the factors affecting perceived trust risk and adoption of trust risk relief service. Finally, it analyzes the economic function of trust seal—the representative online trust risk relief service and makes some instructive conclusions.更多还原