【作者】 孔珂；

【导师】 解建仓； 王一平； 阮本清；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,黄河下游地区干旱缺水、河道断流现象突出,致使应急水量调度的频率、范围和强度都不断增加,已经成为当前黄河水资源管理中的重要问题。应急调水具有利害两重性,是对流域正常水资源分配秩序的剧烈改变,必然造成供水地区和受水地区之间的利益冲突,因此亟需建立起合理的补偿机制,通过制度手段和技术手段平衡调水各方的权利和义务,消除调水的负面影响,实现效率与公平的兼顾。本文结合国家自然科学基金项目、国家863项目和水利部科技创新项目,对黄河应急调水补偿机制的理论依据、定量方法、制度建设以及信息平台开发等问题进行了全面系统的探讨,旨在健全和完善黄河水资源统一管理制度,促进黄河水资源的可持续利用和流域各地区的协调发展。主要的研究内容包括以下几方面:(1)通过对黄河水资源的自身特性及其管理现状的分析,界定应急调水的内涵、成因和利害关系,明确应急调水补偿机制的概念和意义。(2)利用经济学理论和水资源科学的相关知识,分析了应急调水中水资源价值的构成、特点和变化规律,明确了应急调水中的水权转移以及补偿机制与黄河水权制度的关系。具体应用水资源价值理论和水权理论阐述了应急调水补偿机制。(3)分析了应急调水给被调水地区造成的负面影响,根据调水损失的影响因素和测算原理,给出了发电损失的测算方法和灌区农业灌溉损失的测算方法,进行了实例计算和分析。为合理实施调水补偿提供了定量参考依据。(4)根据公平与效率兼顾的原则,设计了应急调水补偿机制的整体制度框架,并利用博弈理论和模型对各种应急调水补偿实施方式的特点和效果进行了深入分析,提出流域协商方式是目前最有效的制度形式,而“自律模式”是解决困境的根本途径。(5)为实现应急调水补偿的流域协商,利用中间件、Internet、Agent等现代信息技术,构建了应急调水补偿的仿真与协商系统。该系统具有智能、灵活、扩展性强的特点,能够为应急调水补偿提供一个协商与决策平台。(6)根据现实情况和现有资料设计了两个黄河应急调水典型过程,在仿真与协商平台上对这两个过程进行了模拟,模拟出了方案制定、仿真计算、技术协商以及补偿协商的全部过程,并得到了最终的调水补偿方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently the emergent water dispatch has become an important problem in the water resources management of the Yellow River because its frequency, range and intense are continually increasing, which caused by the severe aridity and river cessation in the downstream areas of the Yellow River. The emergent water dispatch has benefit as well as harm; it is the intensive change of the ordinary water resources allocation and always brings interest conflict between the areas which provide water and the areas which receive water. So, it is necessary to build a rational compensation mechanism of emergent water dispatch in order to balance the rights and obligations of all the areas involved in the water dispatch through the institution measures and technology measures, to avoid the harm caused by the water dispatch and to realize both the efficiency and the equity.Based on the National Science Fund project, the National“863”project and the science creative project of the ministry of water resources, this paper carries out a general and systemic study on the theory fundamental, the calculation methods, the institution construction and the information platform development of compensation mechanism of emergent water dispatch. The study’s aim is to perfect the uniform water resources management system of the Yellow River and to advance the sustaining uses of water resources and the harmoniously development the all areas in the Yellow River basin. The paper’s main contents include:(1)Through the analysis of the water resources characteristics and current water resources management situation of the Yellow River, the emergent water dispatch’s concept, causes and benefit-harm effect are defined and the compensation mechanism’s concept and its significance are also pointed out.(2)Using the knowledge of economics theory and water resources science, the composition, characteristics and variation rules of the water resources value during the procedure of the water dispatch are analyzed; the water rights transfer and the relation between the compensation mechanism and the water rights institution in the Yellow river are pointed out. The compensation mechanism of emergent water dispatch is concretely discussed in terms of the water resources value theory and water rights theory.(3)The negative effects caused by water dispatch are analyzed; the calculation methods for power generation loss and irrigation loss are provided through analysis of the principles and variations of such losses; examplesare calculated and discussed in order to provide reference for the rational account of compensation.(4)According to the principle of both the efficiency and the equity, the institution frame of the compensation mechanism of emergent water dispatch is constructed. The properties and effects of different implement methods of compensation are analyzed using the game theory and game model. The idea is that the most effective institution form today is the basin negotiation mode and the ultimate resolution of the dilemma is the self-constrain mode.(5)In order to carry out the basin negotiation of the emergent water dispatch compensation, the simulation and negotiation system is developed adopting the modern technologies such as middle-ware, Internet and Agent. The system is intelligent, flexible and expandable, which can be a decision and negation platform for the compensation mechanism of emergent water dispatch.(6)Using the simulation and negotiation system, two typical procedures of the emergent water dispatch, which are designed according to the current situation and reference, are simulated. The whole procedure including scheme definition, simulation calculation, technology negotiation and compensation negotiation are demonstrated and the final schemes of compensation of water dispatch are received.更多还原