【作者】 方春银；

【导师】 刘茂山；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际金融， 2001， 博士

【摘要】 本文从理论上和实践上对ART方式存在的必然性和可操作性问题进行了研究和分析,确立ART方式与资本效率之间的关系。这些问题的研究和关系的确立,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。它不仅突破了传统的可保风险范围,而且可以解决长期困扰保险人和被保险人的一些重大经营风险处理方案的选择难题,从而推动整体经济的正常运行。本文共分序言和七章对ART方式进行了全面的研究: 序言对ART产生的背景及其国外研究情况进行了介绍,阐明了研究ART方式的必要性,研究ART的方法、目的、理论基础及其创新点。第一章从历史的角度分析了风险是相对人及其财富而言的。到目前为止,人类认识并寻找处理风险的方法大约经过三个发展阶段:一是冒险借贷阶段(主观风险时代); 二是大数法则的发现及其应用阶段(客观风险时代); 三是风险分类阶段(混合风险时代)。随着社会经济的发展,人们对风险转移的方式越来越成本观念化,进而使得许多风险转移活动在时间上容不得客观概率产生而产生,对保险业的经营提出了挑战。通过本章的研究,作者得出两个重要结论是:其一,风险的转移不一定非在面临共同风险的人之间进行不可; 其二,保险的风险转移方式和其它财务控制的风险转移方式都是一种财务的风险管理方式,从而为后文关于ART方式的研究和分析奠定风险理论基础。第二章从理财的角度研究风险转移方式,认识保险和ART方式的本质属性。和生物界通过遗传和变异的统一来实现生物的发展相类似,保险的发展则是通过继承与创新的统一来实现的。ART方式实际上是一种风险转移方式上的创新,而不是保险的创新,但ART方式的产生却大大推动了保险业的发展。第三章以风险环境为研究对象,阐明风险转移方式的变革是风险环境变化的客观要求。巨灾风险特征打破了保险业经营的基本原则,更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation theoretically and practically demonstrates that it is very valuable to study and verify the necessity and feasibility for the existing of Alternative Risk Transfer ( hereinafter called ART ), the relationship between ART and capital efficiency. The emerging ART has transcended the conceptual scope of the traditional (re)insurable risks as well as uncovered the ways how to deal with the catastrophic risks, and, thus promoted the aggregate economy working well. The dissertation includes the preliminary remarks and seven chapters: The preliminary remarks introduce the readers the backgrounds of the emerging ART and the study levels at home and abroad. It illustrates the necessity, means, targets, theoretic basis and innovative arguments. As the basis of the whole dissertation, the first chapter historically studies the risk. It argues that risk is existing only in terms of human and its wealth. So far, there are three stages man has sought a better way to deal with risks: the first is “Bottomry” as we might call the era of subjective risk; the second is the discovery and application of the Large Number Law as we might call the era of objective risk; the third is the risk classification as we might call the mixed era. The more the social economy develops, the more cost-efficient man thinks the way of risk transfer. Thus, hardly had the objective probability been obtained when the necessity needing a new way to transfer risks became imminent, and the (re)insurers face the challenges. The author deduces two important points from this chapter studying: one is that risk-spread might be carried out among those who do not face the same risky situations; (Re)insurance and other risk transfers are the same way of a kind of risk financing, and these base the following text analysis of ART. The second chapter financially studies the way of risk transfers and recognizes the intrinsic quality of (re)insurance and ART. As the same with the inheritance and the genetic variation of a creature, the (re)insurance attains its development based on the unification of inheritance and innovation. Actually, ART is the innovation of risk transfers other than (re)insurance innovation. But ART really promotes the development of (re)insurance industry. The second section sets up a conceptual frame of ART and says the channels of ART includes not only captives but also (re)insurance companies, banks and capital markets. This conceptual frame of ART appears to be more realistic, explicit and perfect in comparison with the international theoretical circle. Based on the changing risk environment, the third chapter voices that the innovation of risk transfer meets the need of the changing objective world and economic environment. The trend of globalization and the development of technology have also hatched new risks. Catastrophic risks breaks the Large Number Law. The risks many economic organizations face are beyond the traditional (re)insurable ones. They need more: not only traditional (re)insurance, but also the security of efficient cash flows. As an efficient way of risk-financing, ART meets their need at most. Improving the cash flows of economic organizations will become the first need of their risk management. The forth chapter is about the basic theory study of emerging ART. The result of individual selection is not in accordance with that of collective ones. As the (re)insurance develops and there is an adverse selection in the market, some of the catastrophic risks or hazards or basic risks in some cases are gradually dissociated from the ordinary risks, and which stimulates longing for the capital market and the ART emerging. The disequilibrium between the demand of risk transfers and the supply of (re)insurance protection manifests that: risk-based capitals pursue the maximum profits rather than the maximum risk transfer. It is the intangible hand that controls the selections of risk transfers, and thus stimulus the innovation. The fifth chapter focuses on the study and analysis of the fair premium. It says that the traditional stochastic procedure is so sophistic and is lack of individual risk characters. ART meets the individual risk characters and has the function of discovering the fair premium and offers the solutions to the unfair pricing as possible. The sixth chapter demonstratively analyzes ART. The study of this chapter shows that ART manifests itself very efficient meeting the need of risk-transfer or risk-spread beyond what is traditionally thought acceptable. The relationship between the traditional (re)insurance and ART is more complementary to each other than substitutional. The seventh chapter first explains and analyze the situations of risk, (re)insurance industry and the capital market in China. Second, it tries to simulate two models and shows the use of ART to deal with the catastrophic losses in China. And it says that, ART has its promising market in this country and the Chinese risk management circle should take it into account and study it as a new assignment.更多还原