【作者】 郑德凤；

【导师】 王本德；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 为缓解区域水资源供需矛盾,减少洪涝干旱灾害,开展雨洪资源与地下水资源联合调控研究,在充分挖掘现有水利工程(水库、湖泊)的潜力,再配套以必要的工程设施广开水源,增加水资源的可利用量,将是十分紧迫而又非常重要的任务。其中利用地表蓄水工程临时滞蓄多余洪水,然后在有条件地区通过一定设施将其回补地下存入地下水库,通过地表、地下水库的联合调度,对径流过程予以再分配,以丰补枯、以余补缺,具有十分重要的意义。 雨洪资源与地下水资源联合调控是以提高雨洪资源利用,促进雨洪资源与地下水资源的转化效率为出发点,将防洪与补源相结合,寓资源利用于灾害防范之中。其根本目的是要充分利用汛期雨量进行区域水资源的年调节和多年调节,实现水资源的可持续开发利用。主要调控手段包括提高地表洪水资源利用率和促进地表洪水转化为地下水资源两方面。为此本文从资源水利和可持续发展水利的角度出发,研究水库汛限水位实时动态控制和引洪回灌补源的水库优化调度这两种提高雨洪资源利用率,增加地下水补给量的非工程措施的理论与方法。同时系统研究了利用地下水库调蓄水资源时空分配的理论与方法,其中地下水库调蓄能力综合评价的指标体系与方法研究对优选适宜开发利用的地下水库区和规划地下调蓄远景区具有重要理论指导意义。主要研究内容和成果如下: (1) 在分析我国水资源短缺问题及其对策,归纳总结目前提高雨洪资源利用的工程技术措施和非工程措施的基础上,对水库实施洪水资源化调度的必要性与可行性进行分析,重点研究洪水预报和降雨预报信息应用于水库洪水资源化调度中的可行性。在综合考虑入库洪水、水库安全运行、下泄洪水超下游地区防洪标准、下泄洪水减少导致下游生态环境用水破坏等不确定性因素后,对水库洪水资源化调度的风险因素进行分析,提出水库洪水预报调度方式的风险分析及降雨预报信息应用于水库实时调度中的风险分析方法。并给出考虑洪水预报和降雨预报误差的水库洪水资源化调度风险率的定义与计算方法。 (2) 基于汛限水位实时动态控制的新理念,提出汛限水位实时动态控制方案的决策方法及其实施步骤。引入洪水与兴利连续长系列调节方法并开发相应的系统软件计算水库的兴利效益,给出汛限水位动态控制风险率和风险损失的定义与计算方法。在此基础上,选取部分兴利效益指标和风险控制指标构建汛限水位实时动态控制决策方案优选的多指标评价体系。最后以大连市碧流河水库为例,采用多目标模糊模式识别理论模型对汛限水位动态控制方案进行优选计算,进而确定水库实时调度过程中汛限水位动态控制的满意决策方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 To lessen the contradiction on supply and demand of regional water resource, reduce the disaster on flood and drought, develop joint-cooperation regulation and control of rainfall and flood resource and groundwater resource, enough dig the potential of the existing hydraulic engineering as reservoirs and lakes, and couple the indispensable engineering facilities to increase water resource, will become an import and urgent task. Especially, utilize surface storage water engineering to temporarily store surplus flood, and recharge groundwater in some area with good geological condition, by joint-cooperation operation on surface water and underground reservoirs, reassign run-off process to increase water quantity in water resource scarce and dry area, this will be quite significant.Joint regulation and control for rain and flood resources and groundwater is based on increasing the utilization rate of rainfall and flood resource, accelerating the transform efficiency between them. In which, flood control is combined with groundwater recharge to realize synchronously resource utilization and disaster prevention. The fundamental objective of above actions lies in rainfall of flood season should be enough utilized to realize annual regulation and years regulation of regional water resource, realize the sustained exploitation and utilization of water resource. The main means on regulation and control include two sides: one is improving the utilization rate of flood resource, the other is accelerating surface flood transforming groundwater. Based on the idea, the author discusses two optimal operation pattern of reservoirs as real dynamic limited water level and groundwater recharge from resource conservancy and sustained development, the corresponding theory and method of the two non-engineering measures are further studied. At the same time, the author still systematically studies the principle and method for using underground reservoirs to regulate time and space distribution of water resource. In which, the studies on index system and method of comprehensive evaluation on reservoirs regulation and storage capacity will become an important guidance significance to optimize underground reservoirs area and program underground regulation and storage area. The main research and results involved in the dissertation includes the following parts:(1) Water resource scarcity and the corresponding countermeasures are analyzed, the engineering and non-engineering measures at present for improving rainfall and flood resource utilization are also summarized. Then the author analyze the essentiality and feasibility implementing flood resource operation, especially emphasize the feasibility that some information of flood forecast and rainfall forecast is applied to flood resource operation of reservoirs. Based on the comprehensive consideration on some uncertainty factors as flood of inflow reservoirs, the safety running of reservoirs, flood flowing downstream exceeds flood control standard, or flood decrease leads to ecology environment damage, the risk factors for flood resource operation of reservoirs are analyzed, risk analysis of flood forecast operation pattern and the corresponding risk analysis method in which rainfall forecast information is applied to real operation of reservoirs are then proposed. Moreover, the risk rate of flood resource operation of reservoirs is also defined and the corresponding computing methods are respectively given based on the error analysis of flood forecast and rainfall forecast.(2) Based on the new idea of the flood control limited water level controlled dynamically of a reservoir during flood season, the control techniques and steps of dynamic reservoir’s limited level are firstly proposed. Then the flood and water utilizing serial regulation method is employed and the computing procedure is programmed using PowerBuilder 8.0 to calculate reservoir’s utilizable benefits. Moreover, the risk rate and risk loss are defined and the corresponding computing methods are respectively given. On the basis of the above-mentioned issues, the assessment index system on optimizing dynamic limited level schemes is established, which considers both utilizable benefit indexes and risk control indexes. Lastly, the Biliuhe reservoir is cited as an example, a fuzzy pattern recognition model for multi-objective system is adopted to optimize the dynamic limited water level schemes. The satisfying plan obtained will provide an important reference and basis for dynamically controlling limited water level during real-time operation of a reservoir.(3) In order to make the most of surplus floodwater during flood periods and realize groundwater sustained exploitation an optimal model on flood control and groundwater recharge of a reservoir is firstly established in this dissertation. In the model, flood inflow into a reservoir is calculated by a runoff generation and flow concentration model of a watershed according to hydrological forecasting date, and the short range rainfall forecast information is considered. On the basis of the above-mentioned issues, an improved dynamic programming model, incorporated with interactive generating technology, is presented to optimize and control reservoir discharging schemes for flood control and recharging groundwater joint operation. Then the design risk and additive risks caused by errors of hydrologic forecast and meteorological forecast are defined and the corresponding calculation procedures are introduced. Finally, taking the Biliuhe reservoir as an example, the optimal model and calculating method of risks are applied to joint operation of the reservoir for flood control and groundwater recharge, the risk value and economic benefit for recharging groundwater are respectively computed and analyzed. The results show that recharge water quantity and the obtained economic benefit using the optimal model are more remarkable than that using the routine operation.(4) Based on the dynamic limited water level control real-time and optimal operation model of flood control and groundwater recharge, the real-time forecast operation system of a reservoir based on integrated information and facing on flood resources utilization and environment safety is built. The whole operation system integrates four manners as forecast operation, ordinary operation, groundwater recharge and ecology needing water operation with four systems as rainfall forecast, flood forecast, flood operation and risk analysis to realize the comprehensive and incorporate management, including information collection, flood forecast, operation pattern choice, real optimal operation, limited water level control dynamically and risk analysis, etc. The operation system built will provide an decision-making support tool for sustained development and flood resource utilization of reservoirs.(5) Underground reservoir for storage water can increase the utilization of flood resources, release loss of flood disaster and realize the sustainable development of water resources. In this dissertation, the concept, regulating principle, storage conditions and function features of underground reservoir incorporated in the flood control system of a watershed are firstlyintroduced. Then, several parameters as regulation and storage volume, regulation and storage coefficient, re-storage index, are defined in order to quantitatively evaluate underground regulation and storage capacity. Among these parameters, the volume is one of the most important assessment indexes. Therefore, corresponding formulae are proposed to calculate the volume in the pore and karst water-bearing body, respectively. Lastly, the above-mentioned computation procedure combined with some flood parameters, is successfully applied to compute the regulation and storage capacity in lower Liao river watershed. The evaluation results can provide an important reference and basis for flood control and dispatching water resources in the course of optimal operation between surface water and ground water.(6) The regulation and storage capacity of an underground reservoir, related to many factors as hydrogeological condition, topography and physiognomy condition, natural geography and climate condition, groundwater exploitation and recharge, economic and technological condition, is a multi-layer and multi-objective system. It is difficult to precisely evaluate the regulation and storage capacity of an underground reservoir with only index. The regulation and storage capacity of an underground reservoir is defined from the viewpoint of keeping ecological balance and the sustainable development and utilization of water resources of a watershed. Then the index system of comprehensive evaluation on regulation and storage capacity is established. Furthermore, the underground reservoir as an multi-objective system, the fuzzy pattern recognition model with cross iteration for multi-objective and multi-layer system and the projection pursuit model based on real coding based accelerating genetic algorithm are introduced to compressively asses regulation and storage capacity of the underground reservoirs in lower Liao river watershed. The evaluation results for two approaches are compared and the applicative conditions are also given, respectively.The conclusions and the problems to be further studied are given at the end of the dissertation.更多还原