【作者】 朱春龙；

【导师】 俞国青；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水力学及河流动力学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市化进程的加快和城市用水需求的不断增长,城市水环境将面临水体污染、水质恶化、水源短缺、地下水位持续下降、海水入侵等一系列问题,因而必须采取有效措施控制城市水环境系统的恶化。城市水环境系统既是复合系统,又是动态系统,也是开放系统,还是随机性系统。这就使得城市水环境系统控制决策变得更加困难,更加复杂,需要科学的手段支持城市水环境系统控制决策工作,以避免决策失误带来重大损失。本文的研究正是基于对城市水环境系统控制决策中的一些重要问题的研究,提出了用动态模拟的方法来支持决策行为,意图使得决策更为客观,更加科学,更加符合实际。主要研究成果有: (1) 提出了确定经济排涝标准的方法,分析了在某一排涝标准下最优的排涝策略,通过具体实例计算确定某一城市区的经济排涝标准。 (2) 提出了基于模拟优化技术的确定截流倍数的方法。该方法综合考虑水量水质,点污染源和非点污染源。构造综合考虑水质水量过程的受纳水体质量综合评价指标体系,在分析水污染成因的基础上,建立了水污染损失函数。 (3) 提出了基于连续动态模拟的河流水环境容量计算方法。以长系列降水过程作为系统输入,通过产流、产污计算,河道流量演算,水质演算,得到控制断面的流量过程与水质浓度过程,进一步统计分析得到动态的、随机的水环境容量。通过对水质演算方法的分析,提出了水质逆倒演算方法。建立了基于小波网络的河流水质实时预报模型。提出了城市湖泊周期性换水需水量确定的解析模型。 (4) 提出了确定线性相关方程的最小距离平方和法。在对据非稳定流抽水试验资料确定水文地质参数方法分析的基础上,提出了确定水文地质参数的二次优化算法。将遗传算法与最小二乘法相结合,应用到确定考虑上月降雨影响的月降雨径流关系的参数,发挥不同优化方法的优点,提高了优化计算效率更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with rapid urbanization and the increase of water demand, we are confronted with a series of environmental problems such as water pollution, shortage of water resource, continued decline of groundwater table and inbreak of seawater, etc. We must take efficacious measures to prevent urban water environment from worsen. Urban water environment system is provided with complex characteristic, dynamic characteristic, opening characteristic and randomicity.These complexities make the urban water environment system more difficult and complicated to control. It requires scientific means to facilitate the decision making to avoid big losses due to bad decisions.Based on the research of urban water environment control system, this paper proposed a dynamic model to support and facilitate the decision-making process and thus make the decisions more objective, scientific and practical. The main achievements of this research include:(1) Analyzed urban flood control and thus proposed a method to determine economic standards of flood control, suggested the optimal flood control strategy for a certain flood control standard .(2) Analyzed combined sewer system, proposed a simulation and optimization based method to determine interception ratio. Interception ratio is a important factor. The method proposed takes a full consideration of water quantity, water quality, point pollution source and no-point pollution source. Based on the analysis of causes of water pollution, a water pollution loss function was created.(3) By analysis of the influence of water environment capacity, this paper proposed a new method to calculate the river water environment capacity. This new method is based on continuant dynamic simulation of water flow. The method proposed uses long-term precipitation as input, calculates runoff, pollution, flow discharge, and water quality, and thus obtain the discharge hydrograph and pollutant concentration process of the cross section. It further analyzes statistically to obtain the dynamic and stochastic water environment capacity. This method combines the dynamic characteristic and stochastic characteristic of water quantity and water quality. A mathematical model of water quality rehabilitation urban lakes via periodically water renewal is proposed.(4) By analysis of the problems of current least square method, this paper proposed a least distance square method of deterministic linear correlation equation. Linear equation is widely used in data manipulation and determination of empirical formulas. Many nonlinear equations can be transformed into linear equations. Traditional least square method is obtained under the assumption that one variable is error free. But in practice, most likely both variables have errors. Thus the obtained parameters are biased and error prone. The least distance square methods consider bi-dimensional random error and are unbiased. They are more appropriate to determine linear equation parameters.更多还原