【作者】 郭龙珠；

【导师】 王福林；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 三江平原地处黑龙江的东北部,面积10.88×10~4km~2,经过近50年的开发,已成为重要的商品粮基地,现有耕地3.51×10~4km~2,粮食总产超过128.81×10~8kg,总人口达852万人,三江平原地区还拥有我国最大面积的湿地,随着社会经济高速发展和国家粮食战略安全储备需求,对水资源的需求量越来越大,三江平原已经成为水资源紧缺、地下水开发利用程度高、水环境问题严重的地区之一。根据三江平原的实际情况和问题,以区域水循环理论为指导,在社会、经济、生态全面可持续发展的前提下,应用GIS理论技术、水文学、地下水动力学、数值法、数理统计、神经网络、运筹学对地下水系统资源量进行评价与配置,对充分发挥区域优势,确保三江平原经济与农业永续增长,解决国家粮食供求矛盾具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。 三江平原地下水在总供水中占有重要位置,90%的城市以开采地下水为主,2001年该区地下水供水量占总供水量的63.54%。因而地下水利用引发的问题倍受政府、管理部门和科学界的关注。该区自1956年至2002年主要进行了四次区域性的地下水资源评价工作,这些评价均以第四系地下水资源为研究对象,以开发为目的对平原区和山丘区地下水资源分别评价,没有考虑全面刻画地下水文系统输入输出的转化关系,无法模拟变化环境下的地下水文过程,因此,有必要在前人研究的基础上,重新评价三江平原地下水资源。 本文主要针对三江平原近年来频发季节性干旱的气候特点和地下水开发利用出现的一些相关环境地质问题,对区域水文地质条件、地下水系统特征、区域“大气水——地面水——地下水”转换关系、地下水资源评价与预报和区域水资源可持续配置进行了较为系统的探索,为实现区域水资源联合高效利用取得如下创新意义的成果: 1.应用地图数据处理模型分析地下水系统特性,建立了优势河流空间分布趋势模型、用Q-Q图检验地貌指标选取合理性,对地貌特征进行区划,应用克立格插值法生成连续地下水系统,创建研究区TIN表面模型,运用可视域分析观测井布局合理性,取得了较为满意的效果,为构建分布式地下水模型奠定了计算基础。 2.建立分布式三维地下水物理模型综合评价研究区第四系和第三系地下水资源,模型识别和检验结果表明所建立的数学模型、边界条件、水文地质参数和源汇项的确定都符合实际情况,较好地解决了孔隙裂隙水并存地区的评价问题,可以用来模拟大尺度区域地下水系统动态。 3.应用随机模型预测降水量、区域开采量,与分布式模型结合构建随机——确定耦合模型,分析社会、经济、环境变化下的地下水资源供需前景。包括用门限自回归降水量预测模型探讨近45年区域降水量演化趋势,并预报2010年降水量;用径向基函数网络(RBF)建立地下水开采量预报模型,将随机模型预报的降水量和开采量按照研究区实际情况离散,与建立的分布式模型耦合,分析2010年区域地下水系统演化趋势。 4.将地下水资源管理配置范围从社会经济用水拓展成在区域社会经济系统和生态环境系统中展开,应用复合形法求解水资源可持续配置模型,系统深入地研究了区域水资源的现状、问题和可持续发展,有助于实现水资源——社会经济——生态环境之间和谐发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sanjiang Plain area is 10.88×104km2, which lied in northeast of Heilongjiang Province.After 50 years’ development, Sanjiang plain has become the most important commodity grain base of our country. Sanjiang Plain now has cultivated area 3.51×104km2, total grain yield beyond 128.81 ×108kg, population over 825×104. In addition, the largest area wetland in our nation is also at Sanjiang Plain. With social economy developing and national grain safety reserves demand increasing at high speed, the requirement of water resources becoming larger than before. Sanjiang Plain has become deficient in water resources great extent of exploit and utilization, one of water environment problem severity.This dissertation according to actual situation and problem of Sanjiang Plain, we take regional water cycle theory as supervise, in the light of social.economy and ecology overall sustainable development evaluate and assign groundwater abundance. By using GIS theory, hydrological science, groundwater hydrodynamics, numerical method, mathematical statistics, neural network, operations research evaluate and assign groundwater abundance. This work has crucial theoretical and pratical significance to bring region superiority into full play, can ensure economy and agriculture of Sanjiang Plain developing sustainable, can also solve national grain contradictions between supply and demand.Sanjiang Plain groundwater lies key position in whole water supply,about 90% city exploitate groundwater as major water supply,groundwater supply hold total water supply 63.54%.So government,administering agency and scientific institutions have pay close attention to the utilize problem induced by groundwater mining. This region has been put fourth regional groundwater resource evaluation from year 1956 to 2002. These evaluation all take Quaternary groundwater resources as exploited study objectives, evaluate plains and montanic groundwater separately, didn’t consider overall portray groundwater hydrological system relation between input and output, couldn’t simulate groundwater hydrological process with circumstance fluctuation. Therefore, it’s necessary to reevaluate Sanjiang Plain’s groundwater resources on the basis of predecessors’ study.This dissertation mentioned Sanjiang Plain climatic characteristics of seasonal drought recently and some regional envirogeological problem caused by groundwater mine, make a systematic exploration in regional environgeological condition, groundwater system characteristics, regional transformation relation of meteoric water - surface water - groundwater, evaluate and forecast groundwater dynamic state, regional water resource sustainable assignment. These studies made such innovating achievements as follows:1. Using cartographical data processing model analyze groundwater system characteristics, build dominant river spatial distributed trendcy model, apply Q-Q plot verify geographical datum’sreliability, make surface feature zoning, use Kriging interpolation method generating continuous groundwater system, creat TIN model of study area,applicate visibile analysis the rationality of observation well layout. All these make consider effect and lay a calculated foundation for build distributed groundwater model.2. Build distributed three-dimensional transient physical model compound evaluate Quaternary and Tertiary groundwater resources. Model recoganize and verify indicate that mathematical model, boundary condition, hydrogeologic parameter, source and remit are accord with reality. This method can solve the problem of pore water and fault water coexit region evaluating, can simulating large scale region groundwater system dynamics.3. Apply random model predict precipitation and regional groundwater mine, integrate random model with distributed model build random-deterministric coupled model analyze groundwater resources supply and demand prospect with society, economy and environment developing. Use Self-Exciting Threshold Auto-Regreesive rainfall predict model according to mutually condition mechanism in groundwater system dynamic probe into recent 40 years basin rainfall evolution trendcy, and forecast 2010 rainfall. Choose Radial Basis Founction artificial neural network establish groundwater mining predict model. According to study area actual circumstance discrete predicted rainfall and mine, coupled with distributed model as ahead to analyze regional groundwater system developing trendcy of year 2010.4. Extend groundwater resource assignment range from social-economic water utilization to regional social economy system and ecological environment system. This paper use complex method solve water resources sustainable administering purpose program model, the model on account of distributed groundwater evaluation system ahead. Make a systematic study the present situation, groundwater evolution problem and sustainable utilization, can help realize harmonious development in water resource-social economy-ecological environment.更多还原