【作者】 常城；

【导师】 孙尧；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 导航、制导与控制， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 随着国家高新技术产业开发区的进一步发展,国内外的专家、学者对科技园区的研究与探索工作也逐步深入。但是,很少有专家学者从系统的角度,应用新的理论深入剖析影响科技园区发展的相关因素,对科技园区的发展规律进行定量的分析和研究,从而为地方政府和管理层决策提供科学依据。本文针对大庆国家级高新区经济发展和实施的制造业信息化工程,应用灰色系统理论及经济控制理论,建立一系列灰色预测模型和灰色辅助决策模型,分析关键环节和有关特点,并且对发展前景进行预测,这将是一项非常有益的探索与尝试。 本文对大庆国家级高新区经济发展进行了灰色关联分析。应用灰色关联度理论,根据因素之间发展势态的相似或相异程度,研究影响大庆高新区经济发展的固定资产投资、石化企业集群、外商投资、出品创汇、入驻企业数量等相关因素的内在规律和联系。在此基础上,重点研究了大庆国家高新区的主导产业——石化企业集群的竞争关系、原料关系、市场关系和行业带动关系对于高新区经济发展的影响,为大庆高新区的结构调整提供依据。 建立了一系列大庆高新区经济发展的灰色预测模型。在过去几年大庆高新区主要经济指标的基础上,建立了一系列大庆高新区经济发展的灰色预测模GM(1,N),分别对未来几年大庆高新区经济发展的主要指标进行预测,并且在预测的基础上进行分析,在分析的基础上作可行性论证。 建立了大庆高新区制造业信息化工程灰色预测模型。制造业信息化工程对于大庆高新区内的制造企业及高新区的整体发展都有十分重要的作用。本文利用灰色系统理论,进行了大庆高新区经济发展与制造业信息化的灰色关联分析,对制造业信息化工程的实施效果进行了评价和预测,对制造业信息化工程三个重要环节进行了资金的优化配置和合理调整,为大庆高新区制造更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the national high and new technology industrial development zones, experts and scholars from home and abroad have conducted further investigation and research about science and technology zones. However, there are few experts who would, applying new theories, dissect the correlation factors producing the effect on the zones, and give the quantitative analysis and research of the development regulations of the zone, so as to provide the basis for local governments and management. Aiming directly at the economic development and informationiaztion project of manufacturing industry in Daqing national high and new technology industrial development zone, this article establishes a series of grey predictive models and grey assistant decision making models, guided by the theories of grey system and economy regulation, to analyze the key components and the relevant features and anticipated the prospect, which would be a beneficial exploration and essay.The dissertation made grey association analysis to the economic development of Daqing national high and new tech zone. With the application of grey correlation theory and the accordance of resemblance and dissimilarity among the factors, it investigated the degree of significance, influence, development and restriction among the correlation factors of investment in the fixed assets, petrification enterprise assembly, foreign investment, foreign exchange earning, the number of stationed enterprises, etc., which exerted the influence on the economic development in Daqing high and new tech zone, and figured out the interior rules and relations of them. On the ground of it, the relations of competition, raw material, market, and the spur of different industriesof the leading industry-----petrification enterprise assembly, were studied as thefocal point, which provided the basis of structure adjustment in Daqing high and new tech zone.A series of the grey predictive models of the economic development in Daqing high and new tech zone was established in the dissertation. The greypredictive models GM(1, N), based on the main economic targets in Daqing high and new tech zone in the past few years, predicted respectively the main targets of the economic development of Daqing high and new tech zone in the coming few years. Moreover, the analysis was made based on the prediction, so was the demonstration of the feasibility based on the analysis.The grey predictive model of informationization engineering of manufacturing industry in Daqing high and new tech zone was set up in the dissertation. The informationization engineering of manufacturing industry plays a very important role in the manufacture enterprises and the whole development of the high and new tech zone. By the theory of grey system, the article undertook the association analysis about the economic development of Daqing high and new tech zone and informationization of the manufacturing industry, and the assessment and prediction of the effect on the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry, and the grading-up disposition and reasonable adjustment to the three key components of the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry, which offered the scientific basis of decision making for the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry of Daqing high and new tech zone.The grey assistant -decision making models of the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry in Daqing high and new tech zone was constructed in the dissertation. With the help of the model, the informationized research and development, management, and production, and other relevant elements were simulated by the technique of virtual reality, and then evaluated with various kinds of targets. The result of the evaluation was judged by the grey multi-target decision making.更多还原