【作者】 吕光辉；

【导师】 潘晓玲；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 中国正在实施开发西部地区战略,新疆成为21 世纪开发和建设的重点区域。然而,新疆支撑资源开发的生态环境极为脆弱,生存和生活环境极端恶劣,制约资源利用的自然灾害十分频繁。脆弱的生态环境已经成为制约全区经济和社会发展的首要问题,建立保障区域经济社会可持续发展的生态安全保障体系已成为实施西部大开发战略必须考虑和解决的首要问题。因此,对中国西部干旱区典型地区——新疆的生态安全评价、预警与调控问题进行分析和研究,对准确地、科学地选择新疆生态建设的策略,对政府部门把握生态安全的变化并及时做出控制和治理措施,进行生态环境建设,确保生态安全,有效的实施国家西部大开发战略,具有十分重要的意义。本文利用生态系统服务功能评价模型、因子分析法模型、神经网络模型和层次分析法系统的对新疆地区的生态安全进行了评价、预警与调控,主要内容与结论如下: 1. 对生态安全的理论与现状进行了系统研究。2. 研究了新疆生态环境特点与存在的问题,分析了生态环境的变化趋势。3. 利用Constanza 提出的生态系统服务功能评价模型进行1989、1996、1999、2003年新疆生态服务功能的价值估算及新疆生态服务功能价值的变化趋势研究。1996 年和2003 年新疆生态系统服务功能经济价值分别为1.034*10¹² 元和0.952*10¹² 元,2003 年比1996 年减少了820 亿元。生态价值的损失巨大。4. 建立了新疆生态安全评价指标体系,利用因子分析法对新疆生态安全评价回顾性研究（1988—2003 年）,得到结论: （1）在影响生态安全的因子中,耕地、森林覆盖率、人均GDP、城市居民庭恩格尔系数、每万人口中大学生人数及职工平均工资是同步的;单位面积化更多还原

【Abstract】 The stratagem of western developing is put in practice in China. For this reason, Xinjiang becomes the key area of development and construction in 21st century. However, the eco-environment and the surviving condition are extremely fragile. In this region, the survival and living environment is exceeding bad. Frequent natural disasters restrain the utilization of resources. The fragile environment has become principal problem that restricts the whole district economy and social development. In order to implement the stratagem of western developing, it is a primary problem to set up the ecological security system that ensures sustainable development of regional economy society. Therefore, in Xinjiang,the typical arid area of the western China, it has important significance to analyze and research ecological security evaluation, warning and controlling. The reasons are as follows: for one thing, choosing the tactics of ecological construction of Xinjiang will be more accurate and scientific. In addition, the government department can grasp the change of ecological security, then make controlling and administration measure in time. Finally, it is an effective strategy to develop western regions, build ecological environment and ensure ecological security. In this paper, we evaluate the ecological security of Xinjiang by using the estimate model of ecosystem service, factor analysis model, neural network model and the analytic hierarchy system. The main contents are as follows: 1. Studying the theory of ecological security and current situation systematically. 2. Studying the characteristic of ecological environment in Xinjiang and existing problems, and analyzing the variation tendency of the ecological environment. 3. Studying the value evaluation and the variation tendency of ecological service services which was put forward by Constanza. The economic worth of ecosystem service in Xinjiang was 1034 billion yuan in 1996 and it was 952 billion yuan in 2003. Compared with 1996, the value was reduced 82 billion yuan in 2003.The losses of ecological value are enormous. 4. The ecological security evaluation index system in Xinjiang is set up. At the same time, ecological security evaluation of Xinjiang is studied by using factor analysis method (1988-2003). Then, we get these conclusions: (1)Plantation, forest coverage rate, per capita GDP, Engel coefficient of urban residents, university student’s number of per ten thousand people and average salary of the worker are the factors of that influence the ecological security. All these factors above are synchronous. In addition, chemical fertilizer load of unit’s area, energy consumption of industrial output value and population are also synchronous. In case of same increment, the influence degrees of the positive factors are as follows: per capita GDP> Average salary of the worker > Forest coverage rate > Engel coefficient of Urban residents> Cultivated land> University student’s number of per ten thousand people. The influence degrees of the negative factors are as follows: Population> chemical fertilizer load of unit’s area> energy consumption of industrial output value. (2)In factors of influencing ecological security, precipitation, input intensity of pollution control, comprehensive utilization ratio of industrial waste and R&D proportion account for GDP demonstrate synchronous. In case of same increment, influence degree of these positive factors to ecological security that arranging from great to small are as follows: Precipitation>R&D proportion account for GDP>comprehensive utilization ratio of industrial waste>input intensity of pollution control. (3)According to the magnitude of synthetic factors of influencing ecologicalsecurity, we can draw a conclusion about ecological security in Xinjiang from 1988 to 2003: E2003> E2002> E2001> E2000> E1999> E1998> E1996> E1997> E1995> E1994> E1993> E1992> E1990> E1991> E1989> E1988. So the situation of ecology security obviously becomes better and better. (4)From 1988 to 2003 the whole state of Xinjiang’s ecological security has being improved step by step. But in somewhere the local index and environment is becoming worse. Depending on ecological construction of over 20 years, the ecological environment of Xinjiang has been improving steadily all the time and having changed greatly. The constructions of ecological environment has obtained enormous achievements. 5. Adopting the method of neural networks and toolbox of Matlab neural network and statistical data of Xinjiang(1988-2003 ), we forecast 32 pieces of ecological security indexes in short-medium range which include plantation, forest coverage rate, and population and analysis the development trend of ecology safe status in Xinjiang till 2010. 6. We erect the concept of ecological security and judging index system. At same time, we have calculated the degree of environmental subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem and total system of ecological security system in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2010. After warning and controlling ecological security of Xinjiang in short-medium range, we draw a conclusions: (1)From 2004 to 2010,the ecological security situations of environmental subsystem are rising and economic subsystems are obviously ascendant in Xinjiang. However, the ecological security situations of social subsystem are declining. (2)The status of ecological security of total systematic in Xinjiang is obviously rising despite undulation occasionally. From 2004 to 2006, the development of ecological security shows medium status. From 2007 to 2009, the development ofecological security shows best status and it shows preferable status in 2010. 7. By using sensitivity factors that influence ecological security system of Xinjiang,which includes environmental subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem and total system, we research into ecological security of Xinjiang. We educe the conclusions: (1)The ecological security of Xinjiang depends on environmental factor highly, it is sensitive in environmental factor’s change under the existing ecological environment’s restriction, proved that the ecological environment structure of Xinjiang is very fragile and unstable from holistic standard of ecological security and quantity,. (2)According to the contributions of these three subsystem, the list is successively: Environmental subsystem >Social subsystem >Economic subsystem.. (3)Ascertained 13 sensitive indexes as the most important factors to the ecological security system, of which the contribution rate is totally up to 70.7% impacted for whole ecological security. (4)Depending on ecological security investigates, we can find out the sensitive factors, which influenced ecological subsystem, Social subsystem and economic subsystem and whole system of Xinjiang. Furthermore, we can effectively change ecological security’s development status by controlling sensitive factor. It’s very important for government to understand the change of ecological security and then take steps on controlling and administration in time. 8. Strateges of ecological security building in Xinjiang are brought forward. (1)We should reinforce protection of the resource environment and ecological construction. (2)We should control the population growth, improve population’s quality and alleviate the pressure of environmental resource.(3)We should enhance the ecological security and build science support system of sustainable development. (4)We should hasten our steps to set up and perfect technical innovation system of ecological security and the construction of conditional security system. (5)We should expedite the development and application of agricultural ecological security. (6)We should enhance the construction of ecological shelterbelt forest system and develop green economy. (7)We should perfect the laws and regulations relevant to ecological security and system of executing the law, and enhance executing the law and supervising of the resource environment. (8)We should insist on prevention, combine prevention with cure, and pay attention to the exterior and ultimate and synthesis administration. (9)Resources exploitation and thrift should be developed simultaneously. We ought to improve the level of resources utilization and efficiency.更多还原