【作者】 陈钊；

【导师】 寇文正； 陈谋询； 高兆蔚；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 在人类社会发展的过程中,森林资源是养育人类最宝贵的一种战略资源。但是,在此过程中,森林资源却遭受着各种灾害带来的巨大损失。那些突发性的重大的森林资源灾害,威胁着人类的生存和发展,使我们不得不采取积极的应急措施,来减轻和避免灾害损失。在科技飞速发展的今天,如何利用人类的科技成果,通过建立森林资源灾害应急系统,科学地进行森林资源灾害的应急,是一项迫切的任务。本文根据我国森林资源灾害管理现状,结合科技发展态势,论述了研究森林资源灾害应急的意义和必要性。深入讨论了森林资源灾害应急对象的含义、特点,提出了判定森林资源灾害应急对象紧急程度的指标构想,森林资源灾害应急的内涵,森林资源灾害应急项目管理的方法。同时提出,必须建立健全的森林资源灾害应急机制。森林资源灾害应急机制是森林资源灾害应急活动规律和应急系统结构的反映,包括森林资源灾害应急的流程、应急系统的组成、应急预案的制定、应急决策等核心内容。应急流程体现了森林资源灾害应急随时间演变的过程,应急系统体现了森林资源灾害应急要素的空间组合机制。应急系统是一个由应急组织机构、人员、物资、通讯、交通运输、信息等要素组成的有机整体。应急预案的建立和应急决策是应急的两个关键环节。应急预案是对森林资源灾害应急的预制方案。可以根据灾害状况,启动不同级别的应急预案。森林资源灾害应急决策是森林资源灾害应急管理的核心内容,完成应急对象紧急程度的判定、应急系统启动的范围程度、应急预案的启动级别、应急物资调度方案选择、最佳路径的选择等的决策。应急决策是在危机情境下的非程序化的紧急决策。实现森林资源灾害应急决策的科学方法是智能决策。智能决策的主要技术包括知识管理、模型管理和智能推理等决策技术。智能决策的手段是应急智能决策系统。森林资源灾害应急智能决策系统,是为森林资源灾害应急决策者提供决策所需信息、知识和方案的人机系统。通过智能决策系统,在人的干预下,根据灾害等其它信息,利用计算机等信息技术,辅助管理者对是否启动应急系统及如何选择具体方案与规模等进行决策。本文探讨了森林资源灾害应急智能决策系统的初步构架:系统的目标、功能、结构。为建设森林资源灾害应急智能决策系统提供了思路和基本的模式。试验研究了福建永安森林资源灾害应急智能决策系统技术平台的功能结构,初步开发了基础数据库子系统和应急决策模拟等部分模块。通过对松材线虫应急的模拟和试验,检验了本文提出的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forest resource is one of the most valuable resources for human beings. In the process of the development of human beings, it has been suffering various kinds of disasters, which have brought about great losses for humanity. Forest resources disasters especially those that happened suddenly are serevely threating the survival and development of mankind. Confronted with such situations, we have to take activate measures to deal with them. Nowadays, with the rapid development of science and technology, how to take advantage of human’s splendid civilization to meet the emergency for forest resources disasters correctly becomes an urgent task. Based on current management status of our country’s forest resources disasters and combine with the situations of science and technology, this paper states the necessity and feasibility of forest resources emergency research, deeply discusses the concepts and the features of emergency objects of forest resources disasters, puts forward the index structure that can determine the emergency degree of forest resources disasters objects, the connotations of meeting disasters emergency for forest resources and the method that can promote project management for forest resources disasters emergency. At the same time, the paper raises a new issue that must construct a sound mechanism of meeting forest resources disasters emergency. The mechanism of meeting the emergency of forest resources disasters reflects the rules of emergency activities and emergency system structures. It includes the core contents of flow of meeting forest resources disasters emergency, the components of emergency system, the establishment of emergency preparatory plan and decision for emergency. The emergency system is an organic whole that is composed of oganization, people, goods and materials, communication, transportation, information and so on. Formulating preparatory plan and making decision for emergency are two key links of meeting an emergency. Preparatory plan is a solution that be made ahead of time for meeting emergencies. Decision making includes judgement on the rank of the emergency, the scope of an emergency system and the preparatory plan, the choice of plan for dispatching emergency goods and materials and the choice of best route. Intelligence decision making is a scientific technique for forest resources更多还原