【作者】 李剑；

【导师】 崔彬；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 矿物学、岩石学、矿床学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 当前,我国有色金属资源特别是铜矿资源短缺的局面不仅威胁着国家的资源安全,还严重影响着国民经济的增长。认识和解决我国铜矿资源对铜工业乃至经济增长的约束问题刻不容缓。 本文将铜工业作为一个系统,创新性地应用资源约束理论和产业结构合理化理论,从产业关联的角度出发,定量分析了当前我国铜工业的约束环节及其约束程度;通过建立C-D生产函数模型定量分析了铜工业投入与产出的关系,揭示了铜工业资源约束的来源及其产生的机理。论文对于其它自然资源约束问题的研究具有一定的借鉴意义,得出的主要结论如下: 1、目前我国铜工业结构不合理呈“倒宝塔型”,位于基础地位的铜矿业是铜工业的约束环节。 2、产能闲置率和原料进口依存度是计量约束环节对铜工业约束程度的两个重要指标。铜矿业的薄弱地位不仅使得后续生产环节大量产能闲置,2001年粗铜、精铜、铜材加工产能闲置率分别达到了3%、19%和39%;还使得铜矿业后续产业原料进口依存度逐年上升,其中精铜原料进口依存度从1994年46%上升到2002年的65%。另外,GDP对精铜消费量的弹性系数可作为计算约束环节对国民经济制约程度的指标,2002年GDP对精铜消费量的弹性系数为0.88。 3、铜工业资源的约束来源具有多重性,其中铜矿资源短缺是约束的主要来源。 (1) 在当前技术经济条件下,我国铜矿资源的质和量的特点决定了铜工业资源约束的主要来源是铜矿资源。 (2) 2002年我国铜工业中技术水平最高的行业为冶炼业,其次为铜材加工业,最后为铜采选业;我国铜采选业仍然属于劳动密集型产业,而铜冶炼、加工业已处于资本密集型产业的行列。就目前我国采、选、冶的技术经济水平来看,即使提高10～15个百分点达到了发达国家的水平,铜精矿的产量仍然无法满足冶金工业的需求,更满足不了我国精炼铜的实际消费。因此,铜采选业资本和技术投入不足是铜工业资源约束的次要来源。 4、我国铜采选业和铜材加工业处于规模报酬不变的阶段,生产要素的投入符合生产效益;相反,铜冶炼业处于规模报酬递减阶段,生产要素的投入不符合生产效益。国家必须调整投资方向,将有限的资金用于铜矿资源的勘探和开发环节上,必须增加技术投入挖掘国内铜矿资源的潜力;更为重要的是必须采用贸易进口和到国外去勘查、开发并举,多元化、多渠道、多方式地利用国外铜矿资源,降低风险,确保铜矿资源的稳定供应。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, the deficiency of non-ferrous resources, especially copper resources in our nation threatens national resources security and certainly influences the economic growth. In the resources supply situation, it is urgent and important to recognize and to solve the copper resources constraint on the copper industry and even on the economic growth of our nation.In this dissertation, the author applies innovatively theory of constraint and theory of rationalization of industry to analyze and judge systematically the constraint link in copper industry. By constructing the Cobb-Douglas production function, the author discusses the relation between input and output of copper industry and reveals the origin and mechanism of resources constraint, qualitatively and quantitatively. The dissertation has an instructional meaning for researching on other natural resources. This dissertation brings forward main conclusions as follows:1. The structure of copper industry is irrationality. Mining industry is a constraint link of copper industry.2. The percentage of leave unused production (PLUP) and the percentage of importing material (PIM) are two available indices used to measure the degree of copper resources constraint on copper industry. The PLUP and PIM of Refined copper is separately 19% and 65% in 2002. As another index, the elasticity coefficient of GDP and refined copper consummation (ECGRCC) is adopted to illustrate the degree of the weak link constraint on the economic growth of our nation. The ECGRCC is 0.88 in 2002.3. The origin of resources constraint of copper industry is mulriple. But the deficiency of copper resources plays a dominant role in causing the constraint.a. On the condition of current economy and technology, the characteristic of domestic copper resources is a decisive factor that causes the constraint.b. Regarding the degree of technology progress of three successive links of copper industry, the highest is smelting industry; on the contrary, the lowest is the mining industry. Mining industry is labor-intensive, while smelting and manufacturing更多还原