【作者】 张丽霞；

【导师】 顾凯平；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 可持续发展关键在于实施,但其基础和前提是对可持续发展状况做出评价。只有在对其状况进行正确评价分析之后,才能更好地制定和实施可持续发展战略。所以可持续发展评价,即如何衡量一个发展是否可持续就成为可持续发展研究和实践关注的重点之一。森林是陆地生态系统的主体,是地球生命系统的支柱,是人类发展不可缺少的自然资源。它以其特有的改善生态环境和促进经济发展的功能,在人类经济和社会发展中占有特殊的地位。所以对森林资源可持续发展现状及未来的评价在国家社会、经济可持续发展评价中占有重要的地位。 本文在论述可持续发展理论、系统理论、复杂系统研究方法及其对可持续发展研究的指导作用的基础上,通过对森林资源现状及森林资源系统的因果关系分析,建立了森林资源系统仿真模型,预测了我国森林资源未来发展趋势,在此基础上对我国目前各项政策及各大工程进行了政策模拟试验并提出了建议;根据森林资源可持续发展内涵,定义了森林资源可持续发展系统,提出了一个由森林资源可持续发展水平、可持续发展能力及可持续发展协调度组成的森林资源可持续发展概念模型,并在此基础上构建了一个垂直式森林资源可持续发展评价指标体系;探讨了森林资源可持续发展综合评价方法及动态评价准则,将森林资源可持续发展分为强(不)可持续发展、基本(不)可持续发展、弱(不)可持续发展;在森林资源可持续发展评价指标体系、系统仿真模型基础上,结合多种数学预测方法(灰色预测、回归等),运用主成份分析、改进的三标度层次分析法、直接赋权法结合的方法确定权重,设计了主客观变权方法,实现了对我国森林资源可持续发展的首次动态评价。研究结果表明:我国森林资源在未来基本能实现自我发展,活立木蓄积量总量呈逐步上升趋势,森林覆盖率也会有较大的提高。林分质量不高和林龄结构不合理这种情况将随着森林资源的不断恢复发展有所改变,单位面积蓄积量在经过一段低谷后将有所提高。未来我国森林资源可持续发展受森林资源可持续发展能力的影响,发展速度缓慢,基本都处于基本可持续发展阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a vital theoretical and practical issue for sustainable development to evaluate on current and future condition of sustainable development, which affects the implement of strategy of sustainable development. Forestry is the main body of land ecological system. It is not only natural resources indispensable to human development, but also supporting system for life on earth. It plays an important role in economical and social development of human beings.In this paper, theories of sustainable development and system, methodology of open complex giant system, the guideline effects of system theory on sustainable development were discussed. Based on the systematic analysis on the cause and effect relationship of system, the developing trend of forest resources in China was predicted by establishing systematic and mimic model of forest resources. Based on this, simulating trials for forestry policies and projects were performed and then suggestions came out. In addition, based on systematic analysis of forest resources, the system of sustainable development of forest resources is defined. The paper also provides a conceptual model of sustainable development system of forest resources, which consisted of developing level, capacity and co-ordination of sustainable development. A vertical appraisal system of indices onsustainable development of forest resources is also provided according to the conceptual model. Furthermore, Methods and standards of comprehensive evaluation for sustainable development of forest resources are discussed. According to the standards of comprehensive evaluation, we divided condition of sustainable development of forest resources into six kinds: strong , basic, weak sustainable and un-sustainable development. Then, sustainable development of forest resources in China was firstly and dynamically evaluated with the help of several analytic methods. The paper also discusses the application of the Principal Component Analysis , the improved-Analytical Hierarchy Process(IAHP) method , directly-weighting method and a new method of getting variable weight was provided in the process of getting weight.Results showed that the stands volume and areas in China is continue increasing, situation of low quantity and unreasonable structure will be change with the development of forest resources; Sustainable development of forest resources was made slow progress influenced by the low developing capacity. It will be in basic sustainable development condition for long time in the future.更多还原