金融资产结构与经济增长的协调机理研究

【作者】 荣先恒；

【导师】 杨义群；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 目前,我国提出要以科学发展观统领经济社会发展全局,其核心在于全面、协调、可持续发展。鉴于金融已成为我国经济资源配置的核心和国家经济安全的核心,树立科学的金融发展观对于经济与金融的可持续发展显得尤为重要。自改革开放以来,我国在金融发展上重视外延和总量扩张,忽视了质量和结构优化,不仅使得金融资产结构与经济增长之间呈现非协调发展态势,也导致金融效率难以提高。这种失调有违于科学发展观的基本原则。鉴于以上原因,本文基于我国改革开放以来的金融发展实践,研究金融资产结构与经济增长的协调机理,具体内容主要包括以下几个方面: 第一部分包括第1章和第2章,主要阐述本文的研究背景、研究思路和技术路线等,并分别从经济增长理论、金融发展理论和复杂性理论等视角介绍了金融资产结构与经济增长协调机理的相关理论研究现状,分析了当前理论研究中的一些不足以及已有研究对本研究的启示。 第二部分包括第3章和第4章。这一部分首先从金融效率入手,从理论上探讨了金融资产结构变动与金融效率之间的关系,以及金融资产结构的帕累托优化问题,为随后的金融资产结构与经济增长的协调原理作了理论铺垫;其次则建立了协调途径概念模型,对Tobin模型进行了再拓展,并从金融资产结构引导经济增长因素内生化、两者非协调的反馈机制以及协调的微观机制等方面,从理论上分析了金融资产结构与经济增长的协调原理及其途径;再其次,探讨了金融资产与经济增长协调的计量分析模型,主要分析了线性规划模型和两种VAR模型;此外,本文从生态学的全新视角,创新性地提出金融生态系统的概念,从生态学的角度分析金融资产结构协调的机理。这一部分还探讨了如何健全我国的金融生态系统以及如何提高我国的金融效率尤其是金融结构效率,以促进我国经济的可持续增长。 第三部分包括第5章和第6章。这一部分首先对发展中国家和发达国家经济发展中金融资产结构的特征进行了分析,并尝试性地从航母型经济、游艇型经济、快艇型经济和舢板型经济的角度分析各国经济发展中金融资产结构发展的特征,随后对我国自1979年以来经济发展中金融资产结构发展的特征做了全面的实证分析,并运用多重指标探讨了我国的金融资产结构效率。 第5章的比较研究表明,从不同类型经济体来看,很难得出哪一个金融体系和哪一种金融资产结构更优的结论。鉴于各个国家的经济发展水平、市场经济的成熟浙江大学博士学位论文程度以及经济发展阶段的不同,关键的问题是建立一个适合于本国国情的金融体系和金融资产结构;第6章的实证分析表明,自1979年以来,我国金融发展取得了长足的进步,在绝大多数金融资产结构指标上都有所改善,但金融资产结构中仍然存在较大的不足,主要体现在五大失调:直接融资与间接融资的失调,债券结构的失调、股票资产与企业债资产的失调、货币资产与非货币资产的失调、货币资产与GDP增长之间的失调。随后本章分析了我国金融资产结构发展中的失调及其成因,并基于相关金融指标的分析,对我国的金融结构效率的特征作出了判断。 第四部分对我国改革开放以来金融资产结构和经济增长的相关性和协调度进行了系统而深入的实证研究,是本文实证研究中的主要创新点和重点所在,主要包括第7章和第8章。 第7章全面地分析了我国金融资产结构与经济增长之间的关联性及协调性。鉴于我国金融资产主要包括货币、股票、债券和保险资产,而国民经济的增长则主要体现在三次产业中。因此,我们首先分析了四类金融资产与GDP之间的关联性与均衡性的差异,以分析金融资产内部结构与GDP的协调性,其次则分析金融资产总量与GDP、三次产业增长之间的关联性与均衡性,以分析金融资产外部结构的协调性。 本章首先利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,分析了1981一2003年我国各项金融资产与经济增长之间的关联性与均衡性。基于双对数广义差分多元回归模型等实证方法的分析表明,1992年一2003年我国M2对GDP的影响最大,而其它三项金融资产对GDP的影响大小排序为股票资产、债券资产和保险资产;1981一2003年债券资产与经济增长之间不存在长期均衡性,关联性较弱,但1992一2003年两者则存在长期的均衡关系,相关系数也有较大的提高。这表明,随着1992年后我国国债扩大发行,债券对经济增长的推动作用得到了加强,而1981一1992年债券在金融资产结构中的比例太小,难以有效推动经济增长。研究也表明,不管是1981一2003年还是1992年一2003年,除我国货币资产的变化构成了GDP变化的格兰杰原因外,其它金融资产与GDP均未构成彼此变化的格兰杰原因。可见,在我国金融资产结构中,M2对GDP的影响是主导性的,其余三种金融资产仍未发挥其应有作用。四种金融资产与GDP增长之间的关联性差异相对其各自在金融资产总量中的比例差异过大,表明金融资产与GDP增长的协调性仍不够。 本章还对金融资产外部结构的均衡性与协调性实证分析,并对金融资产总量与三次产业之间的关联性和协调性进行了分析。协整分析表明,1981一2003年不管是金融资产总量还是金融资产增量与我国GDP之间均不存在长期均衡的关系。在FIR相对较高的前提下,这表明我国金融效率较低。而格?更多还原

【Abstract】 Now our country proposes that we should set up Scientific Development Concept in the course of economic development, ant its core rests with general, coordinated and sustainable development. Since finance has became the core of economy resource distribution and the national economy security, to set up Scientific Development Concept is important to the sustainable development of economy and finance. Since the reform and opening-up, Our country attached importance to extension and gross development, but ignore quality and structure optimization, and it not only lead to the non- coordination development between financial assets structure and the economic growth, but also cause it difficult to improve the financial efficiency.These maladjustments violated the fundamental rule of the Scientific Development Concept. Thus, based on the financial development since the reform and opening-up, we study the coordination mechanism between the financial assets structure and the economic growth.The concrete substance is mainly consists of five aspects:The first section consists of the 1st chapter and the 2nd chapter, mainly elaborated the research background, idea and technique course etc, and introduced the present situation of relevant research on the coordination of the financial assets structure and the economic growth theory separately from the views of the economic growth theory, financial development theory and complexity theory and so on, analysed some defects in the current research and its inspiration to our research.The second section consists of the 3rd chapter and the 4th chapter. Firstly, This section began from the analysis to the financial efficiency, probed into to relationship between financial assets structure and the financial efficiency on theory along with Pareto Optimality problem of the financial assets structure, and it lay a theory foundation to the analysis on coordination principle between the financial assets structure and the economic growth; Secondly we established the coordination approach concept model and developed the Tobin model etc, to analyse the coordination principle and approach between the financial assets structure and the economic growth; Thirdly, we discuss the coordination metric model between the financial assets structure and the economic growth, mainly include Linear programming model and VAR model; Moreover, we proposed the concept of financial ecosystem from the new angle of bionomics, analysed the coordinated mechanism between the financial assets structure and the economic growth. Moreover, We discussed how to improve the financial ecology environment and how to improvefinancial structure efficiency, and through it to promote the economic sustainable growth in China.The third section consists of the 5th chapter and the 6th chapter. At first, this section analysed the feature of the financial assets structure of the developing country and the developed country in the course of economic development, and analysed the feature of the financial assets structure of all kinds of country in the course of economy development from the angle of flattop-type economy, yacht-type economy,barge-type economy and sampan-type economy. Then we comprehensively analysed the feature of the financial assets structure in the course of economy development and analysed the financial assets structure efficiency in China since 1979.The comparing research in the 5th chapter made it known, it was difficult to conclude which financial system of financial assets structure was better. Seeing that economy development level, market economy degree and economy development phrase in every country is different, the key is how to set up the financial system and the financial assets structure according to itself nation condition; The substantial analysis in the 6th chapter makes it known, the financial development in China acquired rapid progress Since 1979,most indexes of financial assets structure had been improved, but there still exist great defect in the financial asset structure, and it mainly embody in five maladj更多还原