汇率与经济增长

【作者】 李未无；

【导师】 纪尽善；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 政治经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 一、选题由来 从上世纪 90 年代中期开始,中国进出口额、外商直接投资、外汇储备等加速增长,反映出中国经济与世界经济之间的相互影响越来越大,作为联系国内外经济“桥梁”的汇率也因此越来越成为人们关注的焦点。1997 年东南亚金融危机爆发,人们对人民币汇率贬值与否展开激烈争论。就在关于贬值与否的论战还余音未了之时,短短几年之后,2002 年又开始一场更加猛烈的关于人民币汇率升值与否的论战。在这两次论战中,人们给出了大量关于人民币汇率是否应该贬值或升值的各种理由。这些理由既包括定性分析也包括定量分析、既有感性认识也不乏理论探讨,都蕴涵一定的道理。我们认为,论战本身具有一定的意义,但是探讨并总结两次论战背后的那些具有普遍适用性的一般经济规律具有更为重要的理论和实际意义。因为当我们把目光投向世界其他国家的时候,发现关于汇率升值或贬值的判断和决策也是困扰这些国家经济政策的核心难题。 为什么会出现这种普遍性难题呢?主要原因在于汇率升值(或贬值)对于一国经济的影响总是利弊共存,赞成方和反对方都可列举许多理由。鉴于实现经济增长是所有国家的最根本目标,解决该难题的思路通常是:第一,从总体上直接对汇率与经济增长之间的联系进行理论和实证分析,这种分析可以近似反映出利弊相抵以后的综合效果;第二,根据本国国情或实际经济条件,找出影响本国实现持续、稳定经济增长的最重要、最本质、最核心的几个经济要素,然后全力分析汇率变动与这几个经济要素之间的联系,从而获得汇率变动与经济增长之间最本质的联系。如何将以上思路具体化呢?在大量阅读国内外相关文献基础上,经过深入思考和总结,我们认为汇率与经济增长相互影响机制可以作为分析汇率变动路径或趋势的一个较为全面、清晰的总体分析框架。 为什么要选用这样的分析框架呢?因为在面临汇率升值(或贬值)2的时候,理性人一般会连着思考两个问题:1、升值(或贬值)压力究竟产生于何处,有无内在合理性;2、如果升值(或贬值)预期得以实现,最终会对经济造成何种影响。第一个问题实际上就是汇率决定问题。从表面上看,汇率是两国货币之间的兑换比率,实际上它是两国经济实力的对比。一般认为,在经济高速增长时期,生产率的较快提高和经常项目出超往往会引起本国货币升值,同时,在经济快速发展期间出现外国资本的持续流入也会引起货币升值。相反,经济衰退引发的外国资本抽逃则会导致本币汇率猛跌,造成严重的货币危机。由此可见,经济增长状况正是汇率变动的基本压力源。“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应”从生产率角度指出经济增长能够促使汇率升值。但是,现实经济生活中既有伴随经济增长出现汇率升值趋势的日本、德国、新加坡模式,也有伴随经济增长出现汇率贬值趋势的中国、泰国、韩国模式。我们通过构建一个动态优化模型对经济增长下的汇率变动路径进行初步探索,从理论上推出实现经济持续增长国家的汇率既可能呈现升值趋势,也可能出现贬值趋势,最终趋势如何取决于该国其他一些经济条件。第二个问题实际上就是开放经济下如何有效促进经济增长。持续、稳定、快速地促进一国经济增长是极其重大的理论和现实问题,探索影响经济增长的重要因素必然成为研究重心。一般而言,经济增长理论强调资本、劳动、技术等直接影响经济增长的因素,但是还有一些非常重要的间接影响经济增长的因素,在开放经济条件下作为联系国内外经济“桥梁”的汇率就是其中的核心因素之一。在开放经济条件下,汇率对国际贸易和资本流动具有决定性作用,而国际贸易和资本流动又通过与投资、消费、物价、就业、心理预期、货币供给、外汇储备等各种经济活动的内在联系对经济增长产生巨大影响。因此,进行汇率调整(升值或贬值)之前必须全面分析可能对经济增长造成的影响。如何才能做到这一点呢?分析汇率变动对国际贸易和外资流动的影响固然重要,但是鉴于汇率变动还对国内外其他诸多经济变量产生直接或间接的正面(或负面)影响,最终对整个经济增长的影响方向和力度很难确定。我们通过构建一般的汇率影响产出的比较静态数理模型对此进行初步探索,从理论上推出汇率变动既可能促进经济增3长也可能阻碍经济增长,最终效果取决于经济体自身的各种经济条件和汇率变动时机、方式、幅度。 总之,随着中国经济的对外开放度和依存度越来越高,以及对世界经济的影响力越来越大的情况下,作为联系国内外经济“桥梁”的汇率越来越成为人们关注的焦点。今后,针对人民币汇率变动的讨论会越来越多,汇率变动的判断和决策变得越来越重要也越来越复杂,这就需要一个清晰、全面的理论框架来指导,从而在汇率该变之时即使没有压力也应变,而在不该变之时即使有压力也不变。本文提供的汇率与经济增长相互影响机制的理论和实证分析对此进行了初步的尝试和努力。论文的许多理论模型及结论具有一般性,适用于满足模型假设前提的其他国家或地区,而论文的实证分析主要以中国 1980年-2003 年数据为样本,其结论对分析我国经济在近期和中期的情况有一定参考价值。二、主要内容及观点本文首先对汇率影响经济增长、经济增长反作用汇更多还原

【Abstract】 Part 1 Economic growth is always a charming subject in economics and itis very important to a developing country. Many economists in chinamake great effort to think how to promote economic growth. So, it’sbecome the core of research to explore factors affecting economic growthand the anti-action that economic growth exerts to these factors. Normally,the theory of economic growth emphasizes these factors that directlyinfluence economic growth , such as capital、labor and technology. Butwe find that there are many other very important indirect factorsinfluencing economic growth, and exchange rate is one of the centralindirect factors under open economic circumstance. If exchange rate in acountry is misaligned, this country’s economic growth may beundermined, because exchange rate misalignment may undermine thiscountry’s international competence. So, it appears very important toresearch the influence of the exchange rate of RMB on economic growth.On the other hand, economic growth always has opposite reaction toexchange rate. During the period of rapid growth, the current accountsurplus and the foreign capital inflow often cause real exchange rateappreciation. But foreign capital rapid outflow caused by economyrecession always gives rise to exchange rate depreciation, brings aboutserious money crisis and destroys economy finally. The exchange rate ofRMB faces up to the pressure of appreciation in recent years which isrelative to china’s rapid economy growth. Part 2 This paper points out firstly these objective economic facts aboutexchange rate’s influence on economic growth and growth’s influence onexchange rate. Then along two channels it carries on analysis. The first channel is the mechanism about exchange rate’s influenceon economic growth. The mechanism is described as the following chart1. Chart 1 Mechanism about exchange rate’s influence on growth From chart 1, we can find exchange rate may influence growth bythree ways. ①exchange rate → foreign trade →growth, ②exchange rate→FDI→ growth, ③ exchange rate →other ways→ growth. Werespectively analyze exchange rate → foreign trade、foreign trade→growth、exchange rate →FDI、FDI→ growth firstly. In order toincluding exchange rate’s influence on growth by other ways and givingthe quantitative relation between exchange rate and economic growth. Wealso build the general theoretical and empirical model that real exchangerate influences growth directly. The second channel is the mechanism about growth’s influence onexchange rate. The mechanism is described as the following picture. Chart 2 Mechanism about growth’s influence on exchange rateFrom chart 1, we can find that for growth being the main policy aim,nominal exchange rate is influenced by government directly. We also findthat growth influences exchange rate by three ways: ①Balassa-Samuelson effect which analyzes how growth influencesexchange rate from supply or long-time. ② the H-M-K hypothesis fromdemand or short-time. ③ the other ways, such as the interest differencebetween one’s own country and foreign country, supply and demand inforeign exchange market, money policy. In order to including growth’sinfluence on exchange rate by other ways and giving the quantitativerelation between economic growth and exchange rate. We build theSVAR empirical model that growth influences real exchange rate directly.Because equilibrium exchange rate is decided by some basic economicfactors, we research equilibrium exchange rate of RMB. Finally, the paper discusses the forming mechanism about exchangerate of RMB. Part 3 There are five charters. The first charter is introduction, includingthe importance of such theme, the definition of important concepts, andso on. The second charter points out these objective economic facts aboutexchange rate’s influence on economic growth and growth’s influence onexchange rate. From the history of development of international moneysystem, we can find the history is just the circular process that is fromcoordination to counter-coordination,更多还原