【作者】 武义青；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 主动性决策理论是我们在学习和继承我国传统决策遗产的基础上而创立的一个有别于西方理性决策理论的另一个决策理论体系。作为主动性决策理论的一个研究方向,势分析把传统决策思想提升到现代科学水平上,建立了一套有效的定量分析方法。本文主要研究内容(创新点):科学定义了经济系统运行的势态概念,论证了势存在的普遍性和经济空间的不均匀性,奠定了研究工作在现代经济系统理论体系中的地位。引入势效系数作为势态的度量表征,建立了势效系数的计算方法,从多种角度讨论了它的经济意义。通过引入势效系数,把一般计量经济模型修改成了势分析模型,并导出了生产率模型和竞争力模型,对当前关于系统预测、系统运行效能度量和其它一些系统分析方法做了较大改进,初步形成了较为完整的方法论体系。把对系统共性的研究和对样本个性的研究统一了起来,创立了全新的分析方法,导出了一批有用的系统分析成果。例如:全面改进了科技进步贡献率的测算方法,使计算出的科技进步贡献率更切合实际,且取值变动平稳合理。开展了实证研究,表明势分析理论可行,而且导致了一些有价值的发现。例如:在对美国1929—1976年的长期消费分析中,发现有些学者提出的边际消费倾向随时间上升的论断不能成立。更多还原

【Abstract】 Being another theoretical system of decision, the decision theory of the initiative, which has been founded on the basis of studying and inheriting the legacy of traditional decision theories of our country, is other than rational decision theory of the West. As one research direction of the decision theory of the initiative, tendency analysis that has brought the traditional decision thought up to the level of modern science has set up a set of effective methods of quantitative analysis. These innovations of the article are as follows:1. The concept of tendency has been defined in the operation of economic system. The author has proved the disparities existing of tendency and universality in economic space, which establishes the position in the systematic theoretical system of modern economy of research work.2. After introducing the effect coefficient of tendency to signify as the measurement of the tendency, the author has established the computing technology of the tendency result coefficient and discussed its economic meaning from many kinds of angles. Through leading into the effect coefficient of tendency, the author has changed general econometric models into models of tendency analysis, which has resulted in productivity model and competitiveness model. More improvement has been made in the present system forecast, the measurement of systematic operation efficiency and some other systematic analytical methods. A more complete methodological system has been formed preliminarily.3. Having united the research of systematic generality and individual character of the samples, the author has created a brand-new analytical method and led out a batch of useful achievements about system analysis. For example, the method of calculating of the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress has been improved in an all-round way, which makes the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress calculated out gear to actual circumstances more with the change of numbers steady and rational.4.The author has made the empirical research that has proved that the theory of the tendency analysis is feasible, and has caused some valuable discoveries. For example, in analysis of long-term consumption of U.S.A. from 1929 to 1976, the judgment put forward by some experts that the marginal propensity to consume rises with time is untenable.更多还原