【作者】 黄领梅；

【导师】 沈冰； 李怀恩；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 水是生命之源,更是绿洲的血液。本论文在世界银行、新疆塔里木盆地灌溉与环境保护二期项目--“和田子项目区水盐平衡模型”、“和田子项目区水盐监测设计”与“和田子项目区水盐平衡模型模拟”研究基础上延伸而来。通过现场考察、资料收集与向当地专家咨询,对和田河流域的气候、径流、耗水、人类活动的现状及演变规律进行研究,在此基础上分析了该地区的水量供需状况,确定了和田绿洲适宜的规模与灌溉面积。取得了如下主要研究成果:(1) 和田绿洲气候有朝着暖湿方向演变趋势。气温、降水、蒸发、湿度均存在不显著的递增趋势,与新疆、全国、全球气候变化一致。(2) 和田河两支流年径流存在不显著的递减趋势,具有2. 6年和11年的周期变化;和田河属融水型洪水,量大峰缓,两支流易同时遭遇大洪水,洪水系列具有3. 8年和11年的周期;和田河两支流在出山口处的径流基本未受人类活动影响,而肖塔站径流在1989年前受人类活动影响不大,之后人类活动影响日益显著,汇入塔里木河水量逐渐减小。(3) 根据干旱区流域特点,在水量平衡原理和水循环基础上,将西安理工大学博士学位论文三所高校联合开发研制的干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型用于和田绿洲。经分析计算,和田河流域近33年来各种耗水基本保持稳定,具有不明显的递增趋势,可以忽略;但水库蒸发耗水存在显著递增趋势,由于水库淤积,在存蓄同样水量条件下,蒸发面加大所致。 (4)利用模糊综合评价方法,针对和田河流域及和田绿洲建立了综合评价指标体系。利用综合评价方法对和田河流域及和田、墨玉、洛浦三个单元的人类活动干扰强度进行了分析评价,指出和田河流域人类活动已达到或接近其抗干扰能力的上限。探索了干早区水文要素对人类活动响应的研究途径,为干旱区人类活动的研究提供了思路,可为相似区域水土资源开发、生态环境保护提供一定的参考依据。 (5)阐释了绿洲的概念,并在此基础上建立了多层次的绿洲分类体系。在水热平衡基础上,同时考虑生态环境要求,建立了适宜绿洲规模的数学模型,计算出和田绿洲的适宜面积为6080一7690km2,现状条件下的和田绿洲规模己达8420 kmZ,超出适宜规模;同时计算出和田绿洲的适宜灌溉面积为220一280万亩。目前的灌溉面积(233万亩)以及规划的灌溉面积(245万亩)尚在适宜范围之内,但必须节水,否则,水资源紧缺将会危及绿洲社会经济的可持续发展。关键词:人类活动;气候;径流;耗水;适宜绿洲规模 本研究得到:教育部优秀青年教师奖项目(编号:2001一282)“人类活动的生态水文效应分析与预测”、国家自然科学基金项目(编号:59879022)“黄土地区土壤溶质迁移机制及祸合模型研究”以及世界银行、新疆塔里木盆地灌溉与环境保护二期项目一一“和田子项目区水盐平衡模型”、“和田子项目区水盐监测设计”与“和田子项目区水盐平衡模型模拟”资助。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the source of life, even more the blood of oasis. This research is fromthe Irrigation and Project Environment Protection in Tarim Basin Phase II——Waterand salt balance model for Hotan sub-project area, Water and salt balance modeling for Hotan sub-project area, and Water and salt monitoring for Hotan sub-project area. The study of the general situation and evolvement of the climate, runoff, water consumption and human activities were carried out in the Hotan river basin, based on the field investigation, the observed data and consultation with the local experts. At the same time, the supply and demand water in the Hotan river basin was analyzes and the suitable area of Hotan oasis and the area of irrigation were calculated. The main research achievements are as follows.(1) There is a warming and wetting evolvement trend of the climate in Hotan oasis. The temperature, precipitation, evaporation and humidity have a non-outstanding increase trend, consistent with Xinjang, China and global climate change.(2) There is a non-outstanding decrease trend with the period of 2.6 and 11 years for the annual runoff of the Hotan River. The floods occur mainly because the glacier and snow melt, whose total quantity are very large and flood peak are relative flat. The high floods often happen simultaneously on the two tributaries and the series of flood has the period of 3.8 and 11 years. The runoff at the upper stream of Tongguziluoke and Wuluwati gauge is not affected by human activities. But the runoff from the Xiaota gauge was slightly affected by human activities before 1989; after that, the runoff was affected increasingly by human activities and the runoff flowinginto the Tarim River decreased gradually.(3) Dissipative Hydrological model for the arid area was used for the Hotan oasis, developed combinedly by the three universities based on the characteristics, water balance theory and water cycle of the watershed in the arid area. All kinds of water consumption in the Hotan basin are relatively steady and have a non-outstanding increase trend, which can be ignored; but water consumption for evaporation from reservoirs has an outstanding increase trend because the area of evaporation is larger than before on the condition of the same water quantity stored in the reservoirs for reservoir fill-up.(4) The comprehensive evaluation index system was set up in allusion to the Hotan basin and Hotan oasis, using the method of multifactorial comprehensive evaluation. The interference intensity of human activities was calculated and evaluated for the Hotan river basin and three counties—Hotan, Moyu and Luopu by the comprehensive evaluation method. The human activity intensity has been up to or close to the upper limit anti-interference capacity for Hotan. The research approach was explored for the response of hydrological factors to human activities in the arid area, which can be used to supervise the development of water and soil resources and the ecology and environment protection for the similitude region.(5) The conception on oasis was explained and the oasis classified system with multilayer was built. In view of the requirement of ecology and environment, based on the water and heat balance, a mathematical model was set up for the suitable oasis size. The suitable oasis area is 6,080-7,690km , which is lower than the existed oasis area (8,420km2). The suitable irrigation area in the Hotan oasis is 2,200,000-2,800,000mu. The existed irrigation area is 2,330,000mu and the irrigation area planned in the future is 2,450,000mu, still within the suitable range. But water saving have to be carried out or less water shortage will affect the sustainable development of society and economy in the Hotan.更多还原