【作者】 吴巧生；

【导师】 王华； 成金华；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 矿产普查与勘探， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 油气资源是一种战略资源，一个国家的油气资源安全不仅关系到该国经济可持续发展以及社会的稳定，而且对世界的经济格局和政治、军事形势也会产生深远的影响。保障油气资源安全的目的，就是确保国民经济持续、稳定、健康发展目标的实现。从中长期发展趋势看，中国油气供需矛盾将会十分突出，通过全球资源配置来保证油气资源的稳定供应是我国经济发展的必然选择。党的“十六”大确立了全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标：“在优化结构和提高效益的基础上，国内生产总值到二○二○年力争比二○○○年翻两番，综合国力和国际经济力明显增强。……可持续发展能力不断增强，生态环境得到改善，资源利用效率显著提高，促进人与自然的和谐，推动整个社会走上生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明发展道路。”因此，考虑国际政治经济形势和国际油气市场的新动向，从全球化的视角出发，以可持续发展为基本原则，既从理论上揭示可持续发展条件下油气资源安全的宏观及微观机理，又通过实证研究和国际比较，为我国全面小康目标的实现寻求制定适合我国国情的油气资源安全战略和对策，具有深远而重大的意义。 本论文的主要目的就在于，以多学科交叉的视角，包括资源产业经济学、宏观经济学、国际政治学、可持续发展理论等等，对油气资源安全与可持续发展、国际政治经济贸易等方面的关系展开全面的理论分析，努力构筑描述可持续发展油气资源安全系统的理论体系，并建立可持续发展能源安全系统评价模型及相应的指标体系，对我国油气资源安全态势做出判断，结合油气资源安全的国际比较，提出富有针对性和可操作性的可持续发展油气资源安全战略。笔者认为，全球气候变化既是一个全球层次的能源环境问题，亦是国际政治问题和经济问题，已引起国际社会的普遍关注，它必将直接影响中国能源发展战略和政策的走向，对中国油气资源安全产生直接作用。这是中国可持续油气资源安全系统研究的理论前提。油气资源安全是国家经济安全的重要组成部分。一是“发展”，即国家经济体系所具有的实现油气资源产业可持续发展的能力，它以油气资源的可持续开发利用为基础。一是“稳定”，即国家经济体系所具有的抵御、化解国内外各种干扰、威胁利侵袭，确保国家经济稳健运行的素质、状态和能力，尤其是抵御能源中断产生经济混乱的能力。这是油气资源安全战略的内生机制。走新型工业化道路是我国油气资源安全战略的现实基础。维持生态系统的稳定和有序，树立资源环境一体化的安全观，在产业层面上实现产业生态化，在企业层面上创造环保型的企业价值，是油气安全战略的外生机制。对这一系列问题的理论研究和实证分析构成了本文的主导脉络。 本论文的主要成果及创新之处表现在以下几个方面： (1) 对能源与可持续发展的关系全面展开了理论分析和实证研究。在总结前人已有研究成果的基础上，从能源消费与经济增长、人文发展差异与能源需求、能源消耗对环境的影响的分析入手，建立了新的能源系统动力学模型，并结合能源—环境与经济整体优化模型的分析，指出，能源消费是温室气体的主要来源，世界各国必须采取相关能源—环境政策匕具尽量减少二氧化碳的排放，征收碳税可能是一种较为现实的办法。但就发展中国家而言，经济发展尚需要很大的碳需求空间，从短期来看，征收碳税显然是不利于通过经济增长来满足人文发展需求的，能源一环境与经济整体优化目标的实现更可能依赖于能源结构的调整和能源效率的提高。 (2)界定了可持续能源发展的概念。指出，所谓可持续能源发展就是将能源系统与环境、社会、经济发展密切联系起来，通过能源战略的制定和实施来促进区域可持续发展日标的实现。可持续能源发展的关键就是能源战略与区域可持续发展相互作用的内在机韦l]的揭示，这种机制土要包括两者之间相互作用的动力机制和协同机制。 (3)对全球气候变化进行了经济学分析，井结合中国能源开发利用的基本情况及二氧化碳排放情景的分析，提出了中国可持续能源发展战略。 (4)首次提出并界定了可持续发展油气资源安全系统。从全球范围来石，所谓油气资源安全就是合理价格卜的可靠的、足够的油气供给。可持续发展油气资源安全系统的研究范畴在水平方向上包括“油气供应安全”、“油气金融化安全”和“油气产业安全”二个“方面”;在垂直方向上，则可划分出“本土”、“区域”与“全球”二个不同的研究“层次”。将垂直的“层次分析”与水平的“方面分析”结合起来，就形成了可持续发展油气资源安全系统的边界。可持续发展油气资源安全系统的研究以本土层面即国家层面为自然边界，既要以全球层次分析为背景，又要以区域层次分析为支撑。 (5)努力构筑描述可持续发展油气资源安全系统的理论体系，其中资源最适耗竭理论与石油资源最优开采模型、能源中断与国家储备机制、国际贸易理论与国际机制理论、油气地缘政治经济理论是观察油气资源安全态势必不可少的理论基础，它们从不同视角揭示了油气资源的可持续利用、稳定供应、宏观调控、与国际政治经济的关系等问题。 (6)通过对可持续发展油气资源安全系统的半结构性特征?更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil and gas resource is a kind of strategic resource, the security of oil and gas resource in a country concerns not only on national economic sustainable development, but also produces a far-reaching effect on the international economic structure and political, military situation. The purpose of assuring oil and gas resource security is to reach the goal of developing the national economy in a sustainable, steady and healthy way. From a view of a medium and long term development, the supply-demand contradiction of oil and gas will be very prominent, it is an inevitable choice for us to ensure the supply of oil and resource steadily by global resource allocation in the course of economic development. The Party’s 16th conference has set a goal of constructing a entire being fairly well-off society as "on the basis of optimizing structure and increasing efficiency, the GDP in 2020 will be doubled than it in 2000, the integrated nationalpower and international economic ability will be obviously raised.......The ability of sustainabledevelopment will grow unceasingly, ecological environment will be improved, and resource utilization efficiency will be raised prominently, all these will promote a perfect harmony between human beings and nature, propel the whole society forward in way of developed production, prosperous life and favorable ecology." So it has a far-reaching significance for us to work out strategies and countermeasures on oil and gas security which conforms to the situation in our country, we must take both the international political and economic situation and new trends in international oil and gas market into consideration, from visual angle of globalization, taking sustainable development as basic principle, not only reveal theoretically the macro and micro mechanism of oil and gas resource security on the basis of sustainable development, but also by means of positive study and international comparison .The main purpose of this paper lies in, from an eye of multidisciplinary crossed including resource industry economics, macroeconomics, international politics and sustainable development theory, etc. analyze theoretically the relation among oil and gas resource security, sustainable development and international politics, economy and trade in a all around way, to construct and depict a theoretical system on sustainable developing oil and gas resource security system and to establish a evaluation model and corresponding index system in order to assess the situation of oil and gas resource security in our country, and finally puts forward a pertinent andfeasible strategy on sustainable developing oil and gas resource security. The author of this paper believes that, the global climate change is both a global energy environment problem and international political and economic problem, it has already aroused general attention by international society, and it is sure to affect the trends of energy development strategy and policy in China directly, exert a direct influence to oil and gas resource security. This is the theoretic premise research on sustainable developing oil and gas resource security system. Oil and gas resource security is an important integrant of national economy security. On one hand it is "development", which refers to the ability a national economic system owns to realize oil and gas industry sustainable development, on the other hand it is "stabilization", means the quality, state and ability a national economic system owns to resist, eliminate all kinds of interference, threat and aggression to assure the national economy operating in a stable and healthy way, especially the ability to overcome the economic confusion caused by energy supply stoppage. This belongs to an endogenous mechanism for oil and gas resource security strategies. It is a practical basis for us to take a path of new type industrialization in oil and gas resource security strategy. Maintain ecological system in a stable and orderly way, building up an integral viewpoint of resource environment, to realize ecotype in更多还原