【作者】 张锦；

【导师】 杜文；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 现代物流在日益显著的全球化、信息化的影响下，在美国、日本以及欧洲等发达国家发展迅速，同时在中国也成为政府、社会、专家十分关注的问题。现代物流业已经和正在成为许多地区和城市的主要产业甚至支柱产业。近十年来，中国对物流基础设施的投资大幅增加，国有物流行业固定资产的投资总额与新增投资，年均递增速度分别为24.3％和27％。然而如何确定物流业的模式、如何把握物流需求的发展和变化规律、如何布局物流设施等等问题的深层解决需要建立一套现代物流规划的理论体系和方法。这对目前我国许多正在开展物流规划的省、市，以及正准备积极发展第三方物流的企业来讲是十分迫切的。国外一些专家学者对此做了不少探索和研究，特别是在物流需求分析上有不少模型和解法，国内近年也有一些针对物流需求预测与物流规划的研究。但是这些研究与成果离建立科学的体系和可操作的方法上有一些差距。本论文在广泛分析国内外已有研究成果的基础上从研究物流需求的特征、影响因素、预测思想入手，构建了基于L—OD的预测与规划体系，开发了相应的预测系统，提出了现代物流规划的基本原理和主要方法，并在科研实践中进行了应用，实践证明了思想方法的有效性和可靠性。论文内容分为三大部分六章。 论文首先对物流的内涵、物流产业与物流学科的形成、发展、现代物流的作用与特征，物流规划的意义与特点、物流需求预测的作用等问题进行了分析与研究；并对国内外相关成果做了查新，分析了已有研究的特点与问题。论文明确指出了现代物流研究的对象主体、对象特征、内容与目的；提出了根据物流研究范围、研究内容、研究深度和应用水平、社会重视程度等可把物流的发展大致分为概念形成期、军事后勤管理期、物流学诞生期、实物分销期、现代物流期五个阶段；描述了现代物流的作用，以及物流服务全程化，供应链一体化，物流活动社会化，物流管理信息化等特征，指出了现代物流不同于传统物流活动之处；分析了现代物流系统规划的意义、特点和作用，以及物流需求及其预测的作用；在全面分析国内外已有相关研究的基础上，分析物流需求预测和物流规划研究的动向、特点、不足，保证了论文的研究方向与研究重点的科学性。 其次，论文描述了物流需求的内涵，定义了物流生成量和需求函数，供应函数，分析了需求的影响因素与显著特征，分析了供需的平衡趋势。在此基础上，给出了集合分析的思想，定义了L—OD、物流小区、L—OD表，第11页西南交通大学博士研究生学位论文以及物流生成量、分布量、物流链、分配量等，根据各量的影响机制，分别给出了各个工作阶段的数学模型共15个，有第一预测阶段的回归分析、弹性系数、增长系数、指数平滑;第二预测阶段的平均增长系数、修正增长系数、单约束重力模型、双约束重力模型;第三阶段的比例模型、概率模型、分层分对数模型;第四阶段的最短路模型、容量限制模型、静态多路径模型、非线性网络配流模型等。并且对重要模型的参数标定、求解方法、检验方法做了分析。进一步应用软件工程思想，在Windows平台上使用C语言开发了LORE v 1 .0预测系统，为基于L一OD的物流量预测提供了具有项目管理、数据处理、预测准备、阶段模型、图形技术、综合费用计算、联机帮助维护、输出等强大功能的工具软件。 最后，论文分析了现代物流规划的目标、类型，提出了现代物流规划的四个基本原理，即物流系统分析原理、物流供需平衡原理、物流投入与产出原理、供应链管理一体化原理。研究了规划的工作内容与工作阶段，提出了规划准备、需求预测、规划与设计、评价与实施各阶段的内容。接着，根据实际科研项目，对两个物流规划实例做了介绍和分析，比较出应用基于L一OD的物流需求预测及规划方法与不应用的两者之间的差别，用实践验证了理论与方法的可行性和有效性，以及巨大的规划价值。 论文第一次在物流规划领域提出基于L一OD的预测与规划方法，首次全面阐述了现代物流规划的需求分析与供应规划的系统思想和模型，率先开发了以此思想方法为基础的软件系统，并率先应用于实际规划项目中。这对物流学科理论体系的构建，现代物流规划方法的完善，以及我国各省、市、地区正在进行的和将要进行的物流业发展规划、城市的物流园区规划及相关的网络设施规划、企业的战略设计都有重大的意义，必将把现代物流推向一个定量化、科学化的阶段。 然后，由于我国在物流及其相关领域发展的相对滞后，物流发展的地区间的不平衡，尚有许多工作急待深化与完善。如:服务需求的描述与量化、L一OD的调查与模型参数的积累、软件系统模型的进一步丰富与功能的进一步完善等等，期望通过广泛的合作与交流、通过扎实而深入的研究，丰富和发展基于L一OD的现代物流预测和规划体系，以为物流学科的发展，为物流规划水平的提高，为物流业的发展做出更大贡献。关键词:物流需求;物流起讫点;物流预测软件;物流系统规划更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of globalization and information technology, modern logistics is developing to a very different extent not only in developed countries, such as America, Japan and Europe etc. but also in china. The government, society and experts in china have created heightened awareness of the special area. Modem logistics has been becoming main industry, even supporting industry in some areas and cities. In recent ten years, the investment to logistical foundational facilities in China has grown greatly, the total investment and new investment of logistics fixed assets belonging to nation increase by degrees of 24.3% and 27% per year.However, the industry needs to set up a set of theory system and solutions which solve the problems about how to confirm logistics pattern, how to hold the development rule of logistics demand, and logistics facilities layout. Nowadays, many provinces and cities in China are making logistics plan, and it is exigent for them to study the theory and methods, and so do the enterprises which is developing the third party logistics. Experts overseas as well as home have been studying the logistical demand forecast and planning, especially several models and solutions have been got on demand analysis. But unfortunately, there are disparity between the scientific system and operable approaches. On the basic of analyzing ready-made logistical theory, this paper set up a forecast and planning system based on L-OD, develop a corresponding forecast system, put forward the basic principles and major methods of modern logistics plan and put them into practice with the beginning of studying logistical demand feature, affected factors, forecasts. Then, the application improve the theory is effective and reliable. The paper is divided into three parts including six chapters.Part 1 we introduce connotation, functions and characteristics of modern logistics, form and evolution of logistics industry and knowledge, the significance and characteristics of logistics plan, the functions of demand forecast. Then after looking up all the relative fruits, I analyze their features and problems, this paper refer to logistical object main part, object characteristics, contents and targets. I discuss five stages underlie logistics evolution according to logistical study area, study content, study depth, application and socialrecognition. The five stages are conception formation, military logistics, logistical naissance, physical distribution, and modern logistics. In this paper, I portray the functions of modern logistics, the feature of successional logistics services, integrated supply chain process, sociable logistical activities, informational logistical management. The differences between modern and traditional logistics are pointed out. The meaning, characteristics and functions of modern logistics system plan and functions of logistics demand and forecast are discussed in the paper. Under consideration of the ready-made research wholly, we analyzed the pulse, characteristics and disadvantages of logistics demand forecast and planning. These mentioned previously assures the paper’s direction and scientific emphases.Part 2 introduces connotation of logistics demand, defines demand function, supply function, discusses what affect the requirement and its characters, analyzes supply-demand balance trend. I define the following concepts: L-OD, logistics zone, L-OD table and logistical generation, distribution, logistical chain and assignment underlie aggregate analysis. Different models of different phase are presented and their respective implications on forecast based on affection mechanism are discussed. The first forecast stage models include: regress analysis, elasticity factor, growth factor, exponential smoothness; the second stage models include: mean growth factor, modified growth factor, single restricted gravity model, double restricted gravity model; the third stage models include: proportion model, probit model, multiple logarithm model; the forth stage models include: minimum path model, limited更多还原