金融发展中的国际贸易：理论与实证研究

【作者】 白当伟；

【导师】 洪文达；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 金融发展理论认为金融发展通过优化发展中国家的资源配置,能够促进经济增长,它的提出对于发展中国家具有重要意义。另一方面,国际贸易理论也已证明了,国际贸易是经济增长的引擎之一。贸易自由化通过影响一国的资源配置,从而有力地促进经济增长。 但是,金融发展和国际贸易这两者之间有什么联系?金融发展能否促进国际贸易的发展?如果能够促进的话,通过什么样的机制和渠道?……等等这些问题都被忽略了。然而,研究金融发展和国际贸易关系却具有重要意义。因此这种忽略不能不说是金融发展理论的不足。本文拟对这个新兴的研究主题进行系统的理论和实证研究。本文共分为七章。第一章是导论,介绍了金融发展理论和国际贸易理论关于经济增长的研究成果,并提出了本文的研究问题。从第二章到第四章遵循着这一逻辑演进路径:首先研究了金融抑制对国际贸易造成的扭曲;其次研究了金融约束战略对国际贸易所可能造成的影响,并对其作了评价;接着研究了金融发展对国际贸易的推动;接着是汇率制度变化对国际贸易的影响。第六章是对多国进行的实证研究,目的是想对金融发展和国际贸易之间的理论关系进行检验。第七章是针对中国改革开放后金融发展和国际贸易之间的关系作一分析和检验。本文的主要工作和研究结论如下: 1.本文系统地研究了从金融抑制到金融约束到金融发展各个阶段对国际贸易的扭曲或影响,研究表明,金融发展在多个方面影响国际贸易。 2.本文系统地研究了金融抑制对国际贸易造成的扭曲,认为金融抑制是扭曲国际贸易的一个重要因素,这个因素和其他对贸易的限制结合起来,会对发展中国家的贸易发展带来较大的负面影响。 3.本文第一次研究了金融约束对国际贸易所产生的影响,认为金融约束会影响到一国贸易的增长和结构的优化,但是,对于金融约束的滥用和过分夸大,又应该引起警惕。 4.本文较系统地研究了随着金融的深化,汇率及汇率制度的变化对国际贸易所产生的影响,总的结论是随着该过程的发展,对国际贸易有着积极的影响。 5.本文对金融发展和国际贸易之间的关系进行了跨国实证研究,研究结果支持了金融发展和国际贸易之间理论上存在的关系。 6.本文第一次对中国改革开放后的金融发展和国际贸易问题做了研究。对改革开放后中国金融发展和国际贸易的实证研究结果表明,二者之间并不存在长期的关系。对于这个和全文的理论分析相悖的问题,我们给予了解释和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory of financial development argues that financial development canaccelerate economic growth by optimizing the allocation of resources in thedeveloping countries. This theory is very significant to the developing countries. Onthe other hand, the theory of international trade has proved that international trade isone of engines of economic growth. By optimizing the allocation of resources in oneeconomy, free international trade can accelerate its economic growth. However, is there a link between financial development and international trade?Can financial development accelerate the development of international trade? If theanswer is yes, what are the means and mechanism by which the financial developmentcan affect the development of international trade? All the questions above are almostignored in the previous literature, which is the insufficiency of the theory of financialdevelopment. The dissertation focuses the relation between the two, and explores theemerging topic theoretically and empirically. There are seven chapters in this dissertation. The first chapter is the introductionof previous researches about economic growth in the theory of financial developmentand international trade, after which the main topic of the dissertation is put forward.The following three chapters (from Chapter2 to Chapter5) are organized as follows:Firstly, we study the distortion of international trade due to financial repression.Secondly, the impacts of financial restraint on international trade are examined andcommented. Thirdly, we explore how the financial development promotes theinternational trade. Finally, the impacts of the exchange rate system’s changes oninternational trade are explored. In Chapter 6, we test the theory of the relationbetween financial development and international trade developed in previous chaptersby econometric methods. In Chapter 7, we analyze and test the relationship betweenfinancial development and international trade in China after 1978, in which yearChina began its reform and opening to the outside world. The main research work andresearch conclusion are as follows: II<WP=6>This dissertation studies systematically the impacts that financial developmentmay have on international trade, including three stages: financial repression, financialrestraint, and financial development. The conclusion is that financial development canaffect international trade in many aspects. This dissertation makes a systematic study on the distortion of financialrepression on international trade and the active impacts that financial restraint mayhave on international trade. But the benefits of financial restraint on internationaltrade shouldn’t be overstated. This dissertation makes a cross-country empirical study on the relationshipbetween financial development and international trade, the results confirm therelationship between them in theory. This dissertation makes a systematic study firstly on the relationship betweenfinancial development and international trade in China after 1978. We find there is norelation between them in the long run, and the reasons are explained.更多还原