【作者】 谢全敏；

【导师】 夏元友；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 结构工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 滑坡灾害是自然环境的一部分，是仅次于地震灾害和洪水灾害的一种严重自然灾害。滑坡对人类社会发展和经济建设的危害是世界性的，滑坡灾害给世界各国造成的经济损失估计每年可达数十亿美元，防灾减灾费用十分惊人。此外，工程不能及时发挥效益或使用中断，其间接损失更大。在我国因70％地域为山区，故滑坡灾害发生密度大，频率高，我国已成为世界上受滑坡危害最严重的国家之一，每年因滑坡灾害造成的损失数以亿计，给国家和人民生命财产带来巨大损失，产生严重社会影响。面对严重滑坡灾害，为合理确定并评价滑坡灾害对生命财产的影响尺度，需应用风险评价理论方法；为采用合理经济有效的治理工程方案，需应用决策理论方法。目前，在滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策理论方法研究方面的学者不多，其理论方法还远未建立起来，国内在这一领域的研究尤其薄弱，在有的研究方面几乎还是空白。为此，本论文进行了滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策理论方法研究，其究成果不仅具有的重要理论价值，而且极具现实意义。 本论文研究以系统工程理论、经济学原理、风险评价理论、可靠性理论和决策理论等为理论基础，对滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策理论方法进行了研究，主要取得如下的研究成果： (1)通过国内外大量的文献研究，分析了滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策理论方法的研究进展、研究成果、存在的问题以及发展方向，在此基础上确定了本论文的研究方向和研究内容。 (2)运用系统工程的思想，建立了滑坡灾害风险评价的系统分析方法。该方法从系统理论的观点出发，提出了滑坡灾害复杂大系统的概念，并以这一概念为基础，探讨了滑坡灾害风险特征及滑坡灾害风险评价的基本内容，系统地阐述了以滑坡灾害危险性评价、滑坡灾害承灾体易损性评价和滑坡灾害破坏损失评价等为核心内容的滑坡灾害风险评价的系统理论框架。 (3)以可靠性理论为基础，建立了基于Bishop法的滑坡灾害危险性概率的计算方法。系统地分析了滑坡灾害易损性构成、评价内容与方法、滑坡灾害承灾体类型及受害方式、滑坡灾害承灾体价值和承灾体损毁等级划分及价值损失率的确定。在系统分析滑坡灾害破坏损失构成及滑坡灾害直接经济损失评价方法的基础上，初步建立了滑坡灾害间接损失评价的投入产出法。在总结国内外文献资料研究基础上，分析了滑坡灾害的可接受风险水平，给出了单个滑坡灾害可接受失稳风险准则，汇总了部分国家和地区的年平均滑坡灾害死亡人数和由于滑坡造成人员死亡的平均年概率，这些对于确定滑坡灾害的风险水平是有一定的参考价值的。建立了滑坡灾害治理工程经济合理性评价的费用效益分析方法。 (4)针对目前滑坡灾害破坏损失评价研究还没有涉及滑坡次生灾害破坏损失评价方面的研究，建立了滑坡次生灾害破坏损失的评价模型与方法。应用故武汉理工大学博士学位论文障树分析法(曰汰)和事件树分析法(ETA)相结合的因果图方法对滑坡次生灾害系统作了可靠性分析，由此对滑坡次生灾害损失进行评价预测。 (5)首先运用系统分析的方法，建立了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价指标体系，然后运用模糊数学理论，建立了滑坡灾害破坏损失多级综合模糊评价模型。并通过实例详细分析了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价模型的应用。 (6)滑坡灾害治理工程是一个复杂系统工程，治理方案的决策受到技术、经济、环境、风险以及专家与决策者的个人素质等许多因素的影响。为此通过系统分析，建立了滑坡灾害治理方案优化决策的评价指标体系。 (7)根据层次分析法的基本原理，建立了滑坡灾害治理方案决策的层次分析法(S mM~AHP法)。并以板岩山危岩体治理为例，建立了板山危岩体治理方案评价层次结构模型，其分析结果为板岩山危体治理实施提供了科学的决策依据。 (8)利用最优传递矩阵对常规的层次分析法进行改进，建立了滑坡灾害治理方案决策的改进层次分析法(STDM-IA圣IP法)，该方法求得的判断矩阵自然满足一致性要求，不需要进行一致性检验。以黄石二中滑坡体治理为例，进行了实例研究。 (9)针对滑坡灾害治理方案决策评价指标的模糊性问题，建立了基于嫡权的滑坡灾害治理方案决策的模糊层次分析方法(S TDM~FAI硕P法)，该方法通过两两指标元素相比较的技术，采用三角模糊数来建立判断矩阵，改善了常规层次分析方法所给出的判断矩阵的不平衡问题。根据水平截集和乐观指标，进行模糊区间运算，从而得出嫡权，再根据嫡权的大小对滑坡灾害治理方案进行评价决策。以一滑坡体的治理方案评价为例，详细讨论了该方法的应用。 (10)针对不同专家决策者对滑坡灾害治理方案有明显的偏好和决策属性指标权重信息不能完全确知问题。建立了一种基于相似度的对方案有偏好的三角模糊数型滑坡灾害治理方案多属性决策方法(s TDM一MADM法)。该方法首先建立一个线性规划模型，通过求解该模型获得属性权重，然后，采用三角模糊数来建立判断矩阵，对滑坡灾害治理方案进行优化决策。以一滑坡灾害的治理决策为例，进行了实例研究。 (11)由于滑坡灾害的成灾条件十分复杂，并非任何一种方法都可更多还原

【Abstract】 Landslide hazard is a serious natural hazard next only to earthquake and floodwater. It has brought about great losses to the economic and societal development worldwide. Each year it causes a loss up to billions of dollars in the whole world. A striking amount of money has been spent on the prevention and redress of the landslide hazard and much more losses have been incurred indirectly therefore. In China, 70% of the area is covered by mountains where landslide hazard happens frequently and densely. China is among those countries stricken most by this hazard. This hazard gives rise to loss with a total value of hundreds of millions yuan and great damages to the country and people’s lives and properties. In order to measure the influence of hazard on life and property, a risk evaluation theory needs to be applied to. And a decision theory is necessary to design an economical and effective treatment scheme. At present, only few scholars have studied on the landslide hazard risk evaluation and treatment decision theory. The relevant theory is far from perfect. In this article, the author makes research on risk evaluation and optimal decision-making of treatment schemes of landslide hazard to reduce loss and expenditure in dealing with this hazard. The research result is of both theoretical and practical significance.Based on system engineering theory, principles of economics, risk evaluation theory, reliability theory, and decision-making theory, this article studies the risk evaluation and treatment decision-making of landslide hazard. The main research findings are as follows:(1) Based on study of the relevant literature at home and abroad, the author analyzes the research development, results, problems, and trends in this field and set his own research direction and scope accordingly.(2) From the viewpoint of systems engineering theory, the concept of large complex system of landslide hazards is put forward, on which is based to investigate the characteristics and fundamental contents about the risk analysis for landslide hazards. The hazard analysis of landslides and the vulnerability analysis of landslide hazards affected body as well as the loss evaluation of landslide hazards taken as the key contents are systematically described.(3) On the basis of reliability theory, a Bishop-based computational method for appraisal of hazard potentiality is adopted. The author analyzes the vulnerability composition, evaluation index and method, type and value of hazards-affected body, way and scale of damage on the body and ratio of value loss. After systematic study of composition of hazard damage and direct loss evaluation method, an input-output method of the indirect loss evaluation is generally proposed. Based on conclusion of available literature, an acceptable risk level is analyzed and acceptable unstable risk standard in one single hazard is set down. An average yearly casualty number in some countries and areas and yearly probability of casualty are gathered, which serve as good references for confirmation of the hazard risk level. One analysis method for expenditure efficiency of a treatment scheme is also put forward.(4) Since till now the damage and loss evaluation of secondary disaster has not been touched upon, the author proposes an evaluation model by making use of causaldiagram combining the FTA and ETA method to make reliability analysis of the secondary disaster system and forecasting of the losses thus arising from.(5) The system analysis method is adopted and an index system of comprehensive evaluation of the damage is established. Then a multi-level comprehensive evaluation model based on fuzzy mathematics theory is set up. What’s more, the application of this model is further expounded with example.(6) The treatment engineering of landslide hazard is a complex systems engineering. The selection of its treatment schemes depends on such factors as technology, economics, environment, and risk. After systematic analysis an evaluation in更多还原