【作者】 庞正轰；

【导师】 李镇宇；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 生态学， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 松毛虫(Dendrolimus spp．)是我国最重要的森林害虫，每年发生面积2，000，000hm~2，造成经济损失约20亿元人民币。防治松毛虫，预测预报是关键。然而，预测预报的技术水平取决于虫情数据采集和虫情数据分析。本项研究采用综合指数法划分马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus(Walker)发生类型区；应用定量预报方法对马尾松毛虫灾害的发生期、发生区、发生量和危害程度等进行了长期的大范围的定量预报，并对预报质量进行了评价；研究制定了马尾松毛虫危害湿地松的防治指标；研究了马尾松毛虫黄色型和黑色型幼虫的生物学和生态学特性，建立幼虫色型比(黑／黄)与种群动态关系的数学模型，探索了松毛虫预报新方法和灾变机理。研究成果如下： 1 首次采用综合指数法把松林划分为马尾松毛虫常发区、偶发区和安全区，并从理论上阐明了马尾松毛虫常发区、偶发区和安全区的基本含义、特征及其相互关系。广西马尾松毛虫发生类型区的划分结果如下：常发区55个县，面积238，117 hm~2，占松林面积的6.3％；偶发区25个县，面积874，255 hm~2，占松林面积的23.2％；安全区26个县，面积2，667，289 hm~2，占松林面积的70.5％。应用马尾松毛虫发生类型区划分的研究成果指导虫情监测，常发区每年4—5次，偶发区每年2次，安全区每年1次。因类施策调查虫情，提高了质量和效率，工效提高了40％以上。 2 首次采用红棉树物候来预测越冬代马尾松毛虫的发生期、盛发期和末见期。红棉花蕾形成：越冬幼虫开始取食；花初开：越冬幼虫大量取食；花盛开：开始化蛹；花落毕：成虫出现。红棉树物候预测法，丰富了马尾松毛虫发生期预报方法。预报方法简单、易行、有效，容易被广大群众所接受。 3 根据历年虫情资料，利用灰色系统模型、马尔可夫链模型、多元回归模型等方法，首次建立了广西省级马尾松毛虫中期和长期定量预报模型，中期预报准确率70～95％，长期预报准确率60％以上。预报到县、市、林场，有效地指导了防治工作。 4 研究了马尾松毛虫危害湿地松的针叶损失量与木材生长量的关系，针叶损失量摘要与松脂产量的关系，首次开展了马尾松毛虫危害可能造成湿地松针叶量损火、木材’l二长量损失和松脂产量损失等的综合预测，为马尾松毛虫防治决策和防治质量评价提供了新的依据。 5基于马尾松毛虫的取食量、针叶蓄积量、人工摸拟马尾松毛虫危害对湿地松生长影响等的研究，首次制定了马尾松毛虫危害湿地松的综合防治指标:2一4年生湿地松，当针叶受害20%时，应进行防治;5一9年生松树，针叶受害30%时应进行防治;10年生以上松树，针叶受害40%时应进行防治。 6首次提出了马尾松毛虫黄色型和黑色型幼虫的划分标准，比较系统地研究了这两种幼虫的生物学和生态学特性，比较了这两种色型幼虫的取食量、繁殖量、天敌寄，卜率、体内含水率、越冬死亡率和耐饥饿能力等方面的差异:研究了林间虫日数量与幼虫色型比的关系，建立了幼虫色型比(黑/黄)与种群数量动态关系的数学模型，开展了利用幼虫色型比预报虫情的新方法，分析了幼虫色型比与松毛虫灾变的关系，为深入研究马尾松毛虫测报技术和灾变机理开辟了一条新的途径。 7本项研究成果己在广西各地、市、县和林场推广应用多年，并产生了巨大的经济效益。1991一2003年，节约虫情监测经费335.77万元，节省防治经费4181.3万元，挽回木材生长量损失和减少松脂损失78828万元，共新增产值83345.07力一元更多还原

【Abstract】 Pine Caterpillar {Dendrolimus spp.) is the most important forest pest in China. It damages 2 million hm2 of pine stands and causes economic lose about 2 billion RMB per year. The key to control the pine caterpillar disaster is to forecast, which is to collect the pest information from forestland on time and deal with it scientifically. This paper mainly studies on disaster forecast of Dendrolimus punctatus in Guangxi, which is included in damaging period forecast, damaging area forecast, damaging degree forecast, and evaluation to the forecasts. The research results are as follows:1 .Based on the integrated damage index, the pine caterpillar damaging forests can be divided into three groups: severe damage area, moderate damage area and non-damage area. The severe damage stands is in 55 counties, which is 238,117 hm2 and covers 6.3% of the total pine stands in Guangxi. The moderate damage stands is distributed in 25 counties, which is 874,255 hm2 and covers 23.2% of the total pine stands. The non-damage forest is in 26 counties, which is 2,667,289 hm2 and covers 70.5% of the total pine forest. The paper studies the concepts, characters and their relations of severe damage area, moderate damage area and non-damage area.2. Dendrolimus punctatus’s active periods can be forecasted by the phenomena of Gossapinus malabaria and Masson pine (Pinus massoniana). The hibernation larvae begin to feed pine needles after hibernation when Gossapinus malabaria begin to germ.3. Markov chain, GM (1,1) and other population forecasting models have been set up.Based on these models. Middle and long term of population dynamic forecasts for Dendrulimus punctatus disasters were made several times respectively in Guangxi Province and the correct rates were 70-95%.4.Forecasting models of pine needle quantity losing, timber growth losing and pine gum quantity losing for Dendrolimus punctatus damaging pine stands have been established.5.Control standards of Dendrolimus punctatus damaging slash pine stands are as follow: 2-4 years old stands shall be protected and control the pest population density when their needles lost 20%.5 -9 years old forests shall be protected when their needles lost 30%;over 10 years old trees shall be protected when their needles lost 40% or more.6. Dendrolimus punctatus larvae can be divided into two groups according to their body color: black larvae and yellow ones. The population density of the pest in stands is related to the ratio of black/yellow larvae. The higher the ratio of black/yellow larvae, the more the population density is. Population forecasting models have been set up according to the ratio of black/yellow larvae. This paper studies the biological and ecological characters of the larvae.7.The program has been lasted for 12 years and its research results have been extended all over Guangxi province. The results have reduced and saved a lot of control cost and produced 833 million RMB benefit since 1991.更多还原