【作者】 王春芝；

【导师】 金俊武；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 现代物流能力是一个企业、一个国家全面提升其经济实力的基础，我国为实现2020年全面建设小康社会的战略目标近来十分重视现代物流的全面发展。结合国家提出的振兴东北老工业基地的战略部署，作为东北经济重要组成部分的吉林省也组织多方力量进行了物流方面的研究工作，其中出海通道问题的研究一直是政府、理论界和产业界所关注的课题之一。近年来，对图们江地区物流领域的国际合作开发是该地区全面经济合作展开的切入点已经成为包括图们江地区三国在内的东北亚六国的共识，面对不断变化的新环境、新问题，为适应新的发展要求对出海物流通道在原有研究基础上进行更进一步的探讨和研究是十分必要的，本文在吉林省出海通道方案与对策研究基础上作深入研究，以期在理论上有所深入，在实践上有所探讨和借鉴，在方法上有所创新。首先，基于对大量相关文献的分析和总结对本文研究中所涉及的出海物流通道研究、多属性评价理论与方法及其在物流系统评价中的应用研究现状进行了全面分析论述，指明了本文进一步深入研究的主旨所在。在系统理解和掌握现代物流及国际物流理论、运输通道理论、交通运输系统工程理论等基础理论知识的基础上对物流通道系统进行了理论分析，并以此为基础结合吉林省实际情况对出海物流通道进行了系统实证分析。由于出海通道是运输通道向出海港口的延伸，所以分析出海物流通道系统首先从分析吉林省陆路运输通道、出海港口和对外开放口岸入手，然后分别从技术分析和经济<WP=117>分析两个角度对吉林省南部和东部出海通道进行了比较研究。国际物流通道评价问题的关键在于评价指标的确立和选取，指标权重的分配、指标数值的处理及评价方法的选择运用及深入研究上。本文在对国际物流通道综合评价指标进行研究中首先通过对已有物流系统评价问题的研究中指标设置的分析及专家咨询等工作，初步确立了评价的指标体系；由于选取的指标不同对评价结果会有很大影响，而且指标选取有很多的影响因素且有很大的主观性，所以选取评价指标时必须遵循一定的规则，本文对指标选择时应遵循的原则进行了分析说明；在确立的原始指标体系的基础上，根据指标选取的基本原则，对指标筛选问题进行了研究，研究中建立了相关指标筛选的DEMATEL模型和次要指标筛选的层次分析模型，最后确立了国际物流通道综合评价的指标体系。多属性评价理论和方法研究至今，形成了一系列比较成熟的评价方法，并被应用于各个领域，这些方法按照权值的变与不变可分为两大类，均一评价方法和非均一评价方法。协调分析法是近年来起于欧洲的一种基于妥协原理，综合考虑方案的优点和缺点来进行评价的均一评价方法，本文将其引入出海物流通道综合评价问题中进行了实证研究。DEA方法(数据包络分析)是目前最有代表性的非均一评价方法，它是以相对效率概念为基础的一种多目标决策方法，这种方法在近年来不仅在理论上有很大进展，而且应用上也越来越广，本文利用DEA原理建立了出海物流通道评价的DEA模型，并进行了实证研究。通过两种方法的实证研究结果及与实际问题的比较验证了方法的可行性，结果表明，这两种方法对出海物流通道及至一般意义上的物流通道评价同样具有实用价值，是两种通用的评价方法。在吉林省出海物流通道系统实证分析和优选评价基础上，对吉林省东部通道图们江地区物流国际开发中的利益和冲突进行了分析，并进行了非合作博弈研究，求得作为利用出海港口的一方局中人中方和提供出海港口的另一方局中人<WP=118>外方（朝鲜和俄罗斯）在图们江物流开发冲突博弈上的Nash均衡。形成Nash均衡的纯策略表明，从统计意义上的理论探讨来看，在基于完全利已准则考虑下的吉林省出海通道选择中，如果东部朝、俄通道存在通道阻力，即使对于东部通道有成本和时间上的优势的吉林省出海物流也会放弃此通道而由南部通道出海；而朝、俄作为另一方局中人在不知道在其进行物流开发后中方是否会选择利用其港口的情况下可能不会进行图们江地区的物流开发，但此均衡下双方的收益值都不是最优的，如果采取合作的态度，双方均可能取得更好的收益值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modern logistical capacity is the basis of an enterprise or a country to increasing its economic power. Recently our country takes emphasis on the development of modern logistics in order to fulfill the objective to fully construct a relatively comfortable life in 2020. Jilin province that is a important part of northeast ecomomy carry out modern logistical research with many field power according to the important national strategy of the rejuvenation of the old industrial base of northeast china. Recent years, the Northeast Asia six countries including the three countries China, Russia and North Korea that locate in Tumen River Area have arrived common acknowledge that the Tumen River Area logistical international development is the key point of the area overall economical development. Facing the changing new environment, new problem it is necessary to study international logistical corridor base on the original research in order to adopt new demand. In this article deeply research is carried out base on the research of Jilin province ocean international logistical corridor plan and countermeasure. The purpose of the paper is to get deeply theory discussion, to get practical meaning, and to arrive at new evaluation method.At first, the currently research situation of ocean international logistical <WP=120>corridor, multiple attribute evaluating theory and method and its adoptment in logistical system evaluation, game theory are analyzed in the first chapter. The porpose to further research in the paper is determined.In the paper, logistical corridor system is theorically analyzed base on the acknowledging and mastering the basic modern logistical theory, transportation corridor theory, transportation system engineering theory and so on. Jilin province ocean international logistical corridor system is empirically analyzed according to the logistical corridor theory. Because the ocean is the stretch from transportation corridor to the ocean port, the analysis of ocean logistical corridor system start from the analysis of the current situation of Jilin province land transportation corridor, ocean port and opening trading port. The south ocean corridor and east ocean corridor are compared according to the technological analysis and economical analysis.The key points of international logistical corridor evaluation is to determinate and choose the evaluation index system, distribute index weight, deal with index data and adopt evaluation method. In this paper, the orginal index system is established with the work of analyzing the index system of existed logistical system evaluation research and the expert consultation. The index choosing must according to principle because of the multiple influnce factors in the index and the result of index choosing have great influnce on the evaluation result. The principles of index choosing are described in the chapter. The choosing methods are studied based on the principles and the orginal index. The DEMATEL model and structure analysis model are established in the research for the relative index choosing and unimportant index choosing.The study of multiple attribute evaluating theory and methods have had a set of whole theory and method system. The theory and methods are used in many <WP=121>fields. There are two categories in the method according to the weight changing order unchanging that are homogeneous evaluating and inhomogeneous evaluating method. Coordinated evaluating method is a kind of method that based on the comprised theory originated in Europe, which consider the advantage and disadvantage of program. In the paper an ocean logistical corridor choosing empirical coordinated analysis model is established. DEA method is a kind of most representive inhomogeneous evaluating method. It is a kind of multiple decision-making methods based on relatively efficiency. Using the method the international logistical corridor model is established in the paper. The two methods are proved possible by the result compare between model and practice.According to the above更多还原