【作者】 彭培好；

【导师】 王成善； 王金锡；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 古生物学与地层学， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 当前，建立一套科学、系统、可操作的评价标准和指标体系，评价林业生态工程建设的多目标效益，已成为社会迫切需要研究和解决的问题，这也是一项国内外林业科学研究的热点。论文针对这一热焦问题，在系统分析林业生态工程及其评价系统特点和效益评价研究领域中有关理论和方法的基础上，运用辨证系统思想，将传统系统理论与方法(系统工程、系统分析)、现代系统理论及其方法(软系统理论和综合集成法等)与社会科学研究中的广义归纳法相结合，首次进行了林业生态工程效益评价得方法学研究，创建了林业生态工程效益评价的软系统归纳集成法(Soft System Method of Induction Integration，SSMⅡ)；应用该方法开展了林业生态工程效益评价指标体系研究，建立了一套科学实用的效益评价指标体系；以川江流域防护林工程为例，基于大量的野外实地调查资料、定位与半定位监测资料以及林业行业的统计资料，运用所建指标体系，开展了防护林工程效益综合评价应用研究，提出了川江流域防护林工程建设中存在的问题及其调控对策；采用相关分析方法，拟合了川江流域防护林工程效益综合评价值与计量评价值间的关系，建立了各种预测模型。总体而言，论文研究突出了多学科、多专业和多领域相互交叉与融合的特色，主要成果和认识包括以下4个方面： 1、通过分析林业生态工程及其效益评价系统特点，依据软系统理论、系统工程理论、综合集成法和社会科学研究中的广义归纳法，创立了林业生态工程效益评价的软系统归纳集成法(SSMⅡ)。该方法论由四个相互关联部分组成：任务目标分析阶段是对接受的目标不明确和结构模糊的复杂软系统问题，采用广义归纳方法，以专家会议或咨询形式，形成对研究问题明确目标的公认的表述形式系统；问题科学化阶段是通过对问题系统的结构化分析，采用软系统方法(SSM)处理不良结构问题，并使其转换为良结构问题；寻求行动对策阶段主要采用综合集成法(SIM)处理半结构化问题；问题解决阶段是用系统工程方法(SE)处理良结构问题，以求得问题的最优解。 2、根据SSMⅡ方法论，系统研究了效益评价指标体系的构建技术、分指标量化技术，建立了一套中国林业生态工程效益评价指标体系，即A级指标3个，B级指标11个，C级指标39个，并确定了各级指标的权重。通过试评价对指标体系进行检验，结果表明所建指标体系合理可行，可以运用于林业生态工程效益的综合评价。 3、根据林业决策部门和基层管理部门的实际需要，依据SSM日方法论，建立了一套实用简化的评价指标体系，即A级指标维持不变，B级指标简化为8个，C级指标简化为14个，并确定了各级指标的权重。同时，利用简化的评价指标体系，在林分类型一县一支流一流域总体四个层次上，对原川江流域防护林体系一期工程林进行了效益静态与动态预测评价研究，取得了以下成果: (1)从总体上看，投入资金91 .6亿元的长江中上游防护林一期工程川江部分的防护林以幼林和中龄林为主，(幼林占防护林总面积的85.3%)，2000年的综合效益总产值已较启动初期的1985年增加了6倍。如果一期工程林面积维持现状，随着防护林的逐渐成熟至2010年，川江流域防护林每公顷的综合效益将比2000年提高38.5%，综合效益产出将达到1985年的9.7倍。 (2)截止2000年，川江流域所属六个支流域的防护林，按它们对综合效益产出总分的贡献，依次为金沙江(21.3%)、嘉陵江(19.7%)、长江上游干流 (18.1%)、渠江(16.2%)、涪江(14.7%)、沱江(10.3%)。但从一期工程实施后效益的变化速度来看，处在四川盆地低山丘陵区的涪江、嘉陵江和渠江等流域的防护林效益发挥的较快、较好，其综合效益总产值比启动初期的1985年增加了13一22.4倍;而金沙江流域防护林效益发挥的最慢，比启动初期的1985年仅增加了4倍。对川江流域68个县各时期防护林效益的评价与各县防护林效益对川江流域防护林总效益贡献大小的分析，可以看出各县之间防护林效益的大小既体现出了各县自然条件、人文经济等方面的差异，也体现出防护林工程建设初期布局上不尽合理的一面;而“七五”、“八五”、“九五”防护林效益变化趋势的分析结果又充分表明了防护林工程建设布局正由不尽合理向合理化方向发展，林分质量及其防护效益也由低至高方向发展。 (3)川江流域的防护林主要由28个造林树种组成。按所占面积比例，排在前八名的树种为马尾松(31.1%)、柏木(30.5%)、云南松(10.5%)、栋类(6 .43%)、杉木(4%)、软阔叶树种(3 .7%)、华山松(2.5%)、恺木(l .8%)，八类造林树种的面积约占防护林总面积的90.5%;按综合效益总产出贡献大小排序，前八名树种依次为柏木(27.9%)、马尾松(26%)、云南松(14.6%)、栋类(7.2%)、杉木(5 .6%)、软阔类(4.5%)、恺木(3%)、华山松(2.7%)，它们的效益产出占了少!!江防护林效益总产出的91.5%;从防护林每公顷产出效益来看，目前最好的防护林树种依次为樟树、青冈、杉木、云南松、高山松、刺槐、栋类、桦木、千丈、云杉、华山松、恺木、湿地松、杨树、柳杉和硬阔叶类等16个树种;由此可以看出，目前防护林工程建设的布局和造林树种结构是不?更多还原

【Abstract】 Construction of a set of the scientific, systematic and operational evaluation criteria and index system that is suitable for the benefit evaluation of forestry ecological engineering has been the problem which must be investigated and resolved, and also is a hot-spot problem in the domain of forestry science. To counter the hot-spot problem, based on the analysis for the characteristics of forestry ecological engineering benefit evaluation system and the theories and methods in realm of benefit evaluation, combined the traditional system theory and method, the modern system theory and method, the synthetical integration method and the generalized induction method in the realm of social science, the first study on the methodology of forestry ecological engineering benefit evaluation was made, the soft system method of induction integration (SSMII) was constructed. By means of SSMII, a set of a scientific and practical benefit evaluation index system of forestry ecological engineering was set up. As an example of the protective forest engineering of the Chuanjiang valley in the middle-upper reach of Changjiang river, based on a host of the field investigation reference, monitoring reference of the position and semi-position station, and forestry statistic reference, the comprehensive benefit evaluation study of protective forest engineering was made, problems existed in the construction of the protective forest engineering and the way to deal with them were put forward. Relation models between the comprehensive benefit evaluation value and the quantitative benefit value were also constructed by means of regression analysis methods. In brief, there are 4 main products or realizations with distinctive features combined by multi-speciality, multi-subject,multi-field, etc. as follows:1. Based on soft system method (SSM), system engineering method (SEM), synthetical integration method (SIM) and the generalized induction method (GIM)in the realm of social science, the soft system method of induction integration (SSMII) of forestry ecological engineering benefit evaluation is constructed. SSMII is composed of four related stages, analysis stage of objective and assignment: the distinct and accepted narrative system of complicated soft system problems with inexplicit objectives and indistinct structures is formed by means of the generalized induction method in form of expert meeting or advisory. Scientific disposal stage of problems: by means of structural analysis of problem system, unwell-defined problem is deal with, and transformed into well-defined problem with help of the soft system method. Seeking countermeasure stage: semi-structure problem is deal with by ways of synthetical integration method. Resolving problem stage: well-defined problem is deal with by ways of system engineering method, and resolved satisfactorily.2. According to SSMII, the constructing technique of index system and the calculating technique of indexes are systematically studied, a set of benefit evaluation index system is constructed, which conclude 3 A-class indexes, 11 B-class indexes and 39 C-class indexes, and weight of indexes is also calculated. By means of evaluation index system constructed, the trial evaluation of protective forest benefits is carried out, the result shows the valuation index system is rational and feasible, and applied to the comprehensive benefit evaluation of forestry ecological engineering.3. Based on practical needs of the forestry policy-making and administrative departments, a set of the simplified benefit evaluation index system is constructed in the light of SSMII, which conclude 39 A-class indexes, 8 B-class indexes and 14C-class indexes, and weight of indexes was also calculated. Meanwhile, present situation and development of forestry ecological engineering benefits (for example the protective forest engineering of Chuanjiang valley) are evaluated by the use of the simplified index system in levels of forest types, county, branch valleys and Chuanjiang valley. Four new achievemen更多还原