【作者】 李立军；

【导师】 王宏广；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 本研究采用历史资料分析、典型调查、专家走访和GIS信息技术等方法，建立和完善了1985—2000年全国分县统计资料数据库，涉及3000多个县共500多万条数据，并实现了基于GIS的耕作制度历史变化趋势和未来布局区划；在此基础上，从作物布局、复种指数、间混套作、轮作连作、土壤耕作方式、物质投入等方面对近半个世纪以来尤其是1985—2001年中国耕作制度的演变进行了分析；本研究还根据FAO数据库，对我国1961-2001年食物需求和供给量趋势进行了全面分析和国际比较，预测了2020年我国主要粮食作物的需求；在总结耕作制度演变规律和食物需求预测的前提下，以全面提高粮食综合生产能力为基础，预测了以粮食作物基本生产田、高产和超高产田布局为核心的2020年耕作制度发展趋势。 1．耕作制度近半个世纪演变主要趋势。(1)耕地面积不断减少，粮食增产的压力越来越大。(2)作物结构不断优化，作物布局区域化、科学化程度不断提高。全国稻谷、小麦和玉米为主的粮食生产格局已经形成。三大粮食作物产量占全国粮食总产比例从1950年的63.18％上升到2001年的85.24％，其中水稻的产量比例略有下降，小麦的产量增加了一倍，玉米的产量比例增加了一倍半；大豆、薯类的产量比例分别下降了50％，其他作物的比例下降了近4／5。各分区和县级GIS分析表明，水稻主要分布在长江中下游区、东南区和华南区，分别占各区总播种面积的60～70％；小麦以黄淮海区为主，占总播种面积的50％；玉米的主要分布在东北区和黄淮海区，分别占总播种面积的40％；大豆以东北区为主，占总播种面积的30％。(3)作物复种方式不断优化，复种指数呈波动式增长。(4)作物种植模式由高产为主向高产高效的方向发展。(5)轮作面积逐渐缩小，呈现单一化趋势。(6)土壤耕作由多耕多种向少耕精种方向发展。 2．耕作制度近半个世纪演变基本规律。精耕细作仍将是耕作制度发展的主要方向；社会需求是耕作制度发展的基本动力；促进粮食增产、环境改善是耕作制度发展与改革的核心任务；可持续发展是耕作制度发展的根本原则；农业科技进步与合理的生产要素投入是耕作制度发展的前提和保证。 3．中国食物及粮食安全趋势及预测。(1)我国食物需求已经进入植物性产品需求基本稳定、动物性产品持续增长的阶段。(2)我国食物安全的现状是：热量基本达标、蛋白质不足、植物脂肪偏低。(3)2020年我国食物及主要粮食作物需求量预测。高谷物方案的粮食需求总量为61857万t，水稻18904万t、小麦11450万t、玉米14137万t、大豆2193万t；低谷物方案的粮食需求总量为64319万t，水稻16953万t、小麦8966万t、玉米14154万t、大豆2193万t。 4．未来20年耕作制度发展的主要趋势。(1)精耕细作仍将是耕作制度未来发展的主导方向。(2)确保粮食产量、增加农民收入和吸引劳动力就业是耕作制度的根本任务。(3)不断提高土地利用率、增加单位面积产量和产值是耕作制度的主要目标。根据县级GIS分析的结果，实现2020粮食总产目标，需要现有低产田提升为中低产田、中低产田提升为中产田、中产田提升为中高产田、中高产田提升为高产田、高产水平再提升40％。(4)区域化、专业化是作物布局的主要趋势和方向。基于粮食生产的基本农田分析，按高谷物需求的三个方案，到2020年分别需粮食作物播种面积9469.7万hm~2、7959.0万hm~2和6872.2万hm~2；按低谷物需求方案分别需9846.6万hm~2、8275.8万hm~2和7145.7万hm~2。(5)复种方式应不断优化、复种指数需进一步恢复和提高。按复种指数恢复和提高方案，2020年所需粮食作物耕地面积高、中、低三个水平为5557.4万hm~2、4676.4万hm~2和4042.0万hm~2，分别占2001年的89.3％、75.1％和64.9％。(6)间混套作方式和内容不断丰富和提高，土地生产率进一步提高。(7)土壤耕作次数减少，耕作质量提高，少免耕进一步得到推广与应用。(8)技术集约和生产要素投入减少是未来高效耕作制度的发展方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to statistics data, typical investigation, experts advices, applying GIS techniques, county level database including 3000 counties and total 5 million pieces data are established, and according above research, historical involving regulations in 1949-2001 and future trends in 2020 on farming system are analyzed, such as crop zoning, multiple cropping, inter-planting, mixed-planting, crop rotation, soil tillage, etc. In this paper, food consumption including calories, protein, fat and cereals per capita in 1961-2001 are analyzed, through compared with USA and Japan and different countries in world, food demand in China in 2020 are forecasted. Based on the involving regulation and food demand trends, strategies and techniques focus on narrowing yield gaps and gaining higher-yield on farming system in 2020 are put forward.1. Gradual progress on farming system in recent half century. (1) Aral land tends to decrease, task of increasing on crop production became harder. (2) Crop zoning tends to stabilize, and scientific and localized crop production areas come into being. Rice, wheat and maize production have become great proportions in total crop production in China, ratio is from 63.18% in 1950 to 85.24% in 2001. Rice production drop slightly, wheat and maize production increased one times and one and a half times in 50 years, respectively. Soybean and potatoes production decreased 50%, respectively, and the other crops production decreased 4/5 in 50 years. It showed through analysis in regional and county level, rice planting areas are mainly in Middle and lower areas of Changjiang River, Southeast of China and South of China, sowing areas and ratio of total sowing areas in those areas are still in 60-70%; Wheat planting areas are mainly in Huanghuaihai areas and its sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are around 50%; Maize planting areas are mainly in Northeast of China and Huanghuaihai areas, and their sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are both around 40%; Soybean planting areas are mainly in Northeast of China, sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are in 30%. (3) Multi-cropping optimized and cropping density increased in wave. (3) Cropping patterns are change from high-yield to combination of high-yield and efficiency. (4) Crop rotation tends to area-demise and simplify. (5) Soil tillage is from extensive to intensive and labor-saving.2. Involving regularities of farming system in recent 50 years. Intensive cultivation is still major direction of farming system. Social demands are fundamental motive force to development of farming system. Improving to yield and environment is key task of farming system. Sustainable development is basic rule of farming system. Agricultural technical innovation and reasonable input are premise and guarantee.3. Trends of food and cereals consumption and its future forecasts in China. (1) China has entered stages of stable vegetable food and gradual increasing of animal food in food consumption.(2) Food demand situations are calories reaching standards, protein shortage and vegetable oils lower. (3 ) Food and cereals demand in 2020 in China. Lower grain demand (D1) is 618.57 million ton; rice, wheat, maize and soybean demand are 189.04 million ton, 114.50 million ton, 141.37 million ton, 21.93 million ton, respectively. Higher grain demand (D2) is 643.19 million ton; rice, wheat, maize and soybean demand are 169.53 million ton, 89.66 million ton, 141.54 million ton,21.93 million ton, respectively.4. Future trends of fanning system in 2020. (1) Intensive cultivation is still major direction of fanning system. (2) Ensuring grain production, improving farmer’s income and absorption of agricultural labors are main directions of fanning system. (3) Improving land utilization and yield and value per units are main proposals of forming system. In this paper, yield is divided into five grades based on 2001 levels, F3 is the average yield field, F2 is 20% lower man F3, F, is 20% lower than F2; F4 is 20% higher than F3, F5 is 20% higher than F4.更多还原