【作者】 邹积君；

【导师】 朝伦巴根；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 本文利用现代规划理论与方法，从可持续发展的角度出发，对太仆寺旗经济发展、产业结构、农业资源的优化配置以及人口等做出了规划，为太仆寺旗编制中长期规划和城镇建设规划提供重要依据。本研究共分三部分。 第一部分为太仆寺旗人口规划。根据太仆寺旗政府人口规划的指导思想、原则和目标，在充分考虑太仆寺旗的自然资源、环境条件、历史背景、经济基础、人口状态及存在问题的基础上，利用人口预测动态模型，对太仆寺旗在各规划水平年人口规模、劳动力和人口结构做出了规划。 第二部分为宏观经济发展预测。首先依据锡林郭勒盟开发战略决策，利用宏观经济模型确定了太仆寺旗发展经济主导优势产业结构群，并对太仆寺旗三大经济部门经济发展做出了预测。其次，利用非线性动态投入产出模型确定了太仆寺旗在经济发展过程中各规划水平年的最优经济增长率和从业人员工资增长水平。 第三部分为农业发展最佳模式及资源优化配置。首先用基于遗传层次分析方法对拟定的农业发展模式进行了优选，并以优选的模式作为研究区近期农业资源优化利用的重要决策依据。最后，以选定的农业发展最佳模式为核心，使用多目标线性规划模型，以农业、林业、牧业产业结构为主要优化因子，给出了农业资源优化配置的方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the sustainable development, this paper makes out the economic development, industrial structure, optimal distribution of agricultural resource, population etc. in Taipusiqi Banner on the application of the development planning theory. The planning results are the important base of midterm and long-run planning, and town planning for Taipusi Banner. This paper makes up of three portions.The first portion of this paper is the population planning. According to the Taipusi Banner guiding ideology of the population planning, the population size, population structure and manpower at each planning year were made by the population dynamic prediction model on the base of the natural resources, environmental condition, and historical background of Taipusi banner.The second portion of this paper is the development prediction of Taipusi banner macro-economy. First of all, according to the developing strategies of Xilinguole Prefecture, the main structures of the economic development were determined by the macro-economy model, and the development of the three economic departments has been planned. The second, the optimum growth rates of the economy and wages were forecasted by non-linear dynamic input-output model at the planning year.The third portion of this paper is the agricultural development patterns and the scientific allocation of the agriculture resource. First of all, the optimal agriculture development pattern was selected by the AGA-AHP (analysis of genetic algorithm. analytic hierarchy process). The optimal pattern is the important baser of the agricultural resource utilization in the near future. The second, the optimal allocation schemes of the water and soil resource were provided in the research area.更多还原