农业风险管理中政府介入问题研究

【作者】 冯冠胜；

【导师】 黄祖辉；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 在经济全球化背景下，农业风险日益显现，并呈现出复杂的变化趋势，严重影响了农业的市场化进程和农民收入的增长及农业的稳定与健康发展，而农业风险管理的主体一直处于低效率与缺位状态，使农业风险管理问题的研究具有十分迫切性。 农产品与市场价格之间扩散式的蛛网波动、信息不完全和不对称所引发的市场风险，信息公共物品属性导致的供给缺陷以及制度创新过程中缺乏成本分担机制等等，都是市场机制在农业风险管理中失灵的体现，这些都产生了对政府介入农业风险管理的内在需求。 90年代以来，我国农业风险呈现出了不同的变动趋势。加入WTO目标的实现，在强化原有农业风险的同时，又滋生了新的风险源，而原有的政府介入方式尽管针对我国不同时期的农业风险状况在战略选择上进行了不同的组合和侧重，但实践证明，政府的这种介入是不成功的。如何在对风险进行正确识别的基础上，选择恰当的风险管理战略，做到风险的有效防范和控制，将是政府介入农业风险管理所必须考虑的问题。 国外政府雄厚的财政实力及其农业政策的发展取向，决定了政府介入农业风险管理的方式是高度的财政补贴型介入；而我国的国情决定了政府介入的方式只能是有限的支持型介入。在WTO框架下，构建以产权介入的新型农民合作保险为主，政府灾害救济为辅的自然风险管理机制和以政府提供信息服务为主，保护价格、收入支持等手段为辅的市场风险管理机制，则是基于政府有限支持型介入理念下有效的制度安排。在此基础上适宜的政策选择，将决定政府介入行为的效果。 全文内容共分七章： 第一章 引言。包括研究的背景和目的，研究的意义，国内外研究现状及简要述评，研究的方法和分析的逻辑框架以及研究的创新与不足之处等部分。 第二章 在理论上阐述政府为什么要介入农业风险管理。主要从蛛网理论、信息缺陷理论、制度创新理论等角度，阐释政府介入的必要性。浙江大学博士学位论文农业风险管理中政府介入问题研究 第三章对政府介入农业风险管理的背景作深入的分析。首先从福利经济学的角度对风险概念进行重新诊释，把风险的内涵界定为损失或获利可能性对特定主体的福利效果，在此基础上，对农业风险的概念、类别、形成机理分别阐述，然后运用变异系数等指标对当前我国农业风险现状进行度量和分析。 第四章对农业风险管理中政府介入的现状与绩效进行评价。回顾了不同风险时期政府在自然风险管理和市场风险管理中介入战略的不同组合与侧重，分析了政府介入政策的运行机理与局限性。 第五章归纳总结了国外政府在自然风险管理和市场风险管理中介入的实践经验，指出国外政府介入农业风险管理的政策基点是高度的财政补贴型介入，这是与其农业发展政策相适应的。 第六章构建我国政府介入农业风险管理的运作机制。在自然风险管理机制构建中，首先从产权经济学的角度对保险的本质进行重新审视;然后基于若干案例的分析，指出当前农业保险运行失败的根本原因在于现有的保险组织制度缺乏对保险费产权的认定:最后指出农业保险的根本出路在于推动基于产权介入的新型农民合作保险组织制度的创新。在市场风险管理机制构建中，指出政府的有效介入在于构建一种以信息服务为主，保护价格、收入支持等手段为辅的风险管理机制。 第七章提出我国政府介入自然风险管理和市场风险管理的相应政策建议，强调通过政府恰当的政策选择来推动新型农民合作保险组织的发展和促进以信息服务为主导的市场风险管理机制的确立。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the economy, agricultural risk shows a complicated trend, and have a serious influence on the development of the agriculture and the increase in farmer’s revenue, correspondingly, the Main body of agricultural risk management is in the state of low efficiency or absence all the while, which makes the research of agricultural risk management exigent.There are many forms of market failure in agricultural risk management, such as the enlarged fluctuating price of agricultural products, the market risk causing by the imperfection and dissymmetry of information, the supply bug causing by communion attribute of information, the lack of mechanism of share in the cost during the system innovation, and so on, which brings the need of government intervention to agricultural risk management.The agricultural risk of China shows different trends Since 1990s. The realization to enter the WTO makes the old agricultural risk more serious, and brings new risk. Though the former government intervention managed agricultural risk in different way, the failure has been proved by the practice. How to select the right way to manage risk after identifying the risk in order to manage risk is a question that the government must think before doing.It is the money and policy goal of agriculture that determines the way that government intervention brings many subsidies. But our government intervention can only operate in a limit way. Thinking of fact that our country has entered to WTO, the design of mechanism in which the new cooperated insurance which property right intervention in one way occupies the main position, and disaster assistance of government occupies the subordination position, is a efficient system arrangement the same as the design of mechanism in which information supply occupies the main position, and protected price, sustained revenue, and so on, occupies the subordination position. Policy selection basing those will determine the effect of government intervention.There are seven chapters aggregately:Chapter one. Foreword. Including background, purpose, significance, method, frame, status and value of foreign research, innovation and shortage of research.Chapter two Explaining the reason why the government gets involved in agricultural risk management, Expounding the cobweb theory, theory of information bug, theory of system innovation.Chapter three. Making a deep analysis of background of government intervention to agricultural risk management;Annotating the risk concept again in terms of welfare economics; Annotating the meaning of the risk as the welfare result of the loss or the profit-making; Explaining the concept, classification, formation mechanism of agricultural risk accordingly;Using the indexes such as coefficient of variation to measure and analyze the situation of agricultural risk in our country.Chapter four. Appraising situation and performance of government intervention: Reviewing the strategy which made up by government and particular emphasis on natural risk management and market risk management; Analyzing the operation mechanism and limitation of the policy of government intervention.Chapter five Summarizing practical experience of natural risk management and market risk management of government intervention, Pointing out that government intervention of high financial subsidy is commensurate with agricultural development policies.Chapter six. Designing the operation mechanism of risk management of government intervention. In the mechanism of natural risk management; examining the essence of the insurance closely again in terms of property right economics at first; then, Based on some case, analyzing and pointing out the basic reason that present agricultural insurance fail to operate is that it never cognizance the property right of insurance premium; finally, pointing out that the only way of the agricultural insurance is to promote the system innovation based on new-type co-operative insurance organization that the property right gets involved in更多还原