【作者】 练继亮；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 结合混凝土坝施工过程仿真研究现状，从系统分析、建模、模型评价、模型优化、参数确定、敏感性分析和仿真结果评价等多角度进行混凝土坝施工系统仿真研究，论文主要研究工作和研究成果如下：（1）从系统分析、建模及模型评价角度全面地对混凝土坝施工过程仿真理论与方法进行研究。重点提出了大坝的动态分层思想及方法、模型参数的系统划分原则与确定方法、模型参数的敏感性分析方法、以及采用可视化技术辅助模型的V&V评价，解决了传统建模理论不完善，模型精度不高等问题，确保了仿真模型对原型系统描述的可靠性，及仿真结果的有效性，提高了系统研究水平，最终保障了仿真结果用于辅助决策的科学性与有效性。（2）运用随机过程理论深层探讨了系统运行过程中筑块浇筑过程的空间状态转移及其转移概率问题。通过仿真稳态次数的计算及对运行过程筑块浇筑活动的空间转移特征的描述，获得并构造了筑块转移的空间网络及其转移概率，解决了系统仿真过程潜在的深层问题，使其浇筑过程可以实现网络化、数值化描述，为施工过程的决策提供了有效的辅助决策手段。（3）提出了大坝施工仿真计算多目标决策理论与方法。通过对系统研究方案及其评判体系的构造，以及提出相应的权值与指标的量化方法，解决了混凝土坝施工仿真中多方案综合评判问题。在此基础上，深入剖析基于随机因素影响条件下的系统仿真结果对原型系统描述问题，运用多目标综合评判方法及模糊数学理论，使任一次仿真结果对系统描述的效果都能用数值手段来评价。运用模型与供料机械配置方案的联合优化方法，解决了系统简化建模带来的模型精度不高问题，同时使供料机械设置方案得到优化配置，更科学、高效地辅助施工组织设计。（4）在大坝施工仿真系统中引入专家系统模式，解决了在仿真系统中需要由领域专家参与才能高效解决的模糊性问题，提高了大坝施工仿真系统的智能水平。（5）提出了大坝施工仿真系统与GIS系统集成框架及实现方法，研制并开发了大坝施工可视化仿真系统DamVSIS。利用该系统实现了对拉西瓦拱坝及糯扎渡重力坝浇筑过程仿真的成功应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 After fully considerate the actuality of the methodology and its application on concrete dam construction process with simulation technology, the author take this paper from the system analysis, modeling, model evaluation and optimization, parameters determination and its sensitivity analysis, and multi-cases evaluation to deeply research the construction system simulation, which is the first time study on the concrete dam construction process simulation roundly and systemically. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follows: Fully study the theories and methods of the concrete dam construction process with simulation technology from its system analysis, modeling and its validity evaluation. The primary work of this paper we discuss is the ideology and methods of dam block layer-split dynamically in the process of model operation, the methods to determine parameters to evaluate its sensitivity, and how the visual technology can greatly help the verification and validation of system model validity. With all the work done the problems that lead to the modeling theories faultiness and its model precision deficiency can be solved effectively, thus the reliability of built-model describing the original system can be enhanced, which can further make the simulation results more credible, and finally help the decision makers make their decision more efficiently and scientifically.Deeply discuss the spatial states transfer of dam blocks pouring activities and its probabilities with the stochastic theory. After calculating the stable times of the simulation operations and depicting the characteristic of the spatial states transfer of dam blocks pouring activities, we can obtaining and building the network of dam blocks pouring activities with its spatial state transfer and its probabilities, which can not only help the detection of the model logic errors, but also make the dam blocks pouring process being depicted with the network and numeral methods, which provide the impactful means for the decision makers of their decision making in the dam construction process. .Advance the multi-objectives decision theories and methods for the concrete dam construction process simulation. The assessment of multi-objectives results is more effective by constructing system simulation schemes and its evaluation system, together with providing quantificational methods of their weight and indicators. Based on the system research, the author further discusses the simulation results of its <WP=5>representative to the original system with every time operation under the effect of stochastic factors; using the methods of multi-objectives assessment and the theory of fuzzy sets, finally makes each time system operation be given a concrete weight value of its results to depict the real system’s behaviors. In the following section of this thesis, the author associates the system model with the schemes design of concrete supplying machines for their mutual optimization activities, not only resolves the problem of model deficiency but also helps the optimization of concrete supplying machines configuration, ultimately makes the construction organization design more efficiently and scientifically.Dam simulation system is an discrete-event system, there are many uncertain factors hard to be quantified during the modeling process, which can affect the model’s validity, however, the expert system can be helpful solving this issue. In this section, we discuss how the simulation system and expert system are combined to make the simulation system more efficiently.Introduce the DamVSIS system, the integration of calculating system and the 3D visualization system developed by VC++ and GIS separately. The integration methods and system functions are also introduced followed by the details of two successfully applied actual hydropower projects, i.e., the Laxiwa arch dam and Nuozadu gravity dam.更多还原