后发优势理论分析与经济赶超战略研究

【作者】 侯高岚；

【导师】 谈世中；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 世界经济， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 世界经济史是一部发展不平衡、后进国家赶超先进国家的历史，其理论依据是后发优势理论。较早研究后发优势理论的是美国经济史学家格申克龙，但他的研究是在英国以及欧洲大陆发达地区经济发展史的延长线上展开的，研究对象仅限于比英国工业化起步时间较晚、经济发展较为落后的欧洲国家。随着经济发展和历史变迁，尤其是二战后，一批发展中国家迅速崛起并实现了工业化赶超，格申克龙“后发优势说”不能完全解释这些现象，亟待发展和完善。本文关于后发优势和经济赶超理论的研究，时间段截取二战后半个世纪以来的历史，以先进国家作为对比和参照，目的是为当今的发展中国家和地区、尤其是中国赶超发达国家提供理论支持。研究对象以实现了工业化赶超的日本和“亚洲四小”为重点，同时涉及前苏联、东欧、拉美、东盟、以及中东、非洲等发展中国家和地区。为了保证理论框架的完整性，本文没有采用先阐释理论、再进行案例分析的论证方法，而是将事实和案例揉进理论分析的过程中，使理论分析与案例分析有机结合起来。 战后发展经济学主要关注的是发展中国家贫困的原因及其克服的办法，对发展中国家如何赶超发达国家，由于时代的限制，讨论得很少。经济全球化的迅速发展，为发展中国家赶超发达国家提供了难得的历史机遇，关于经济赶超的研究也开始增加，国内外学术界关于二战后发展中国家和地区经济发展的国别研究不胜枚举。然而，对于经济赶超的理论依据——后发优势的确切内涵似乎从未给予过清楚阐释：关于后进国家实施经济赶超的一般规律性研究也并不多见。落后国家要实现对先进国家的赶超，首要条件是克服自身劣势、突破传统社会的束缚。早在20世纪50年代，美国经济史学家罗斯托就提出了“起飞”理论。起飞理论的核心内容是一国要实现经济起飞，应主要依靠内部资源积累和自身动力。但是，在经济发展不平衡的世界体系中，后进国家如果仅仅依靠自身内部资源的积累而希望尽快实现经济起飞将十分困难。通过对后发优势的概念解析以及经济赶超一般规律的剖析，我们得出的一个结论是：发展中国家要实现快速的经济起飞并最终实现赶超目标，除了主要依靠自身内部积累外，还必须借助外部动力；而借助外力是有风险的，只有将外部动力转化为内部动力，才能在化解风险的同时，为经济追赶提供持续的可靠动力。 本文前三章是关于后发优势的理论分析，通过分析构建起作为经济赶超理论依据的后发优势理论的框架，从而为进一步研究和构建经济赶超理论奠定基础。第四章到第七章是关于经济赶超规律的理论分析和实证研究，关于经济赶超一般规律的研究揭示了后进国家进行经济赶超的战略性框架，是对后发优势理论的具体应用。 第一章在后发优势的理论溯源中，着重理论分析。由于后发优势理论是关于落后国家经济发展的问题，首先从发展理论的渊源追溯后发优势理论渊源，比较了“后发优势理论”与“比较优势理论”的异同；由于后发优势理论还是关于后进国家加快经济增长的问题，在分析增长理论的演进中，比较了“后发优势理论”与“经济趋同假说”；由于本文关注的是二战后发展中国家和地区利用后发优势进行经济赶超的问题，因而，有必要从后发优势视角透视发展经济学的演化，从而把握发展经济学的内涵；最后，关于后发优势理论的溯源和分析聚焦于马克思主义关于社会跨越的理论，从中探求后发优势理论的精髓。 第二章通过将后发优势物化到生产要素中，将其具体化为后进国家所拥有的“资源优化”、“技术跨越”和“制度捷径”的有利形势，后发优势内涵得以扩展和精确化，使我们能够全方位、多元化地构建和发掘后发优势，更重要的是，使我们在经济追赶过程中能够始终把握最为本质和根本的赶超途径和手段。 第三章通过进一步抽象出各生产要素后发优势的共同特征，进一步分析后发优势作为一种客观存在，具有哪些性质；作为一种动态优势，其演化规律是什么；作为一种系统优势，其作用(实现)机制和构建(构筑)机制是什么。 第四章通过构造“飞船模型”模拟和阐释后进国家利用后发优势实施经济赶超的过程。由于赶超概念的基本内涵是“追赶”和“超越”，追赶建立在构筑和利用后发优势的基础上，超越则有赖于不断提升原有的后发优势并创造出新的后发优势;就赶超的基本规律而言，赶超过程也就是后发优势构筑、实现和提升的过程。 第五章通过对经济赶超的行为分析揭示后进国家构筑后发优势的特征。后发优势的构筑过程实质是资本积累的过程。社会资本积累是经济赶超的基础，人力资本积累是经济赶超的前提，物质资本积累是经济赶超的工具和途径。可见，物质资本积累的过程是经济赶超本身，经济赶超能否得以实现的关键是人力资本和社会资本的积累，尤其是作为基础性的社会资本的积累。 第六章通过对经济赶超的制度分析例证实现后发优势的制度保障。重点剖析“苏联模式”的衰退性特征以及‘旧本模式”的追赶性特征;并对拉美、东亚以及苏东国家的市场化过程进行比较分析。案例分析证明，实现后发优势的制度保障是市场经济体制;要通过经济市场化实现后发优势，必须使后发更多还原

【Abstract】 The world economic history is about unbalanced development and the latecomers catching up with and surpassing the first comers. The academic gist of "catching up with and surpassing" is the theory of "advantage of backwardness". The American economic historian Alexander Gerchenkron did theoretic research on the topic at an earlier time, but his research was developed on the extended line of economic development history of Great Britain and developed areas of Europe continent, the research objects were limited only to the European countries. With economic development and histrionic fluxing, especially after World War Two, some developing countries rapidly grew up and realized industrialization. Gerchenkron’s theory of "advantage of backwardness" can’t explain completely the phenomena, being desiderated to be developed and completed. In this discourse, the research on the theories of "advantage of backwardness" and "catching up with and surpassing" focuses on the history of the half century after World War Two, with the developed countries as comparison, aiming to provide the theoretic support for the developing countries and areas, especially China to catch up the developed countries. In the case analysis, the dissertation takes Japan and "Asia four litter dragons" as emphases, at the same time, involving developing countries and areas such as former Soviet Russia, East Europe, Latin America, East Alliance, Middle East, Africa and so on. In order to ensure the integrality of the theoretic framework, the author massages the facts and cases into the theoretic analyzing instead of exploring the theories firstly, then analyzing cases, making theory and case analyzing organized altogether in an order of logic in accord with history .The development economics after World War Two was focused on the problem of poverty, confined by the era, discussed little on the problem that how developing countries catch up with and surpass the developed countries. With the rapid development of globalization, it provides uncommon chance for developing countries to catch up. Since then, the research on economic catching up with and surpassing have began to increase. The domestic and international academic researches on how one or several special developing countries to catch up are too numerous to be mentioned one by one. However, the exact connotation of "advantage of backwardness", which is the theoretic gist of economic catching up with and surpassing, seems never to be explained clearly; and the research of the general law of catching up with and surpassing is very few. To realize to catch up with and surpass first comers for latecomers, the all-important condition is to overcome disadvantages and to break the chain to traditional society. As early as 1950’s, the American scholar Rostow put forward the theory of "flying-off’. The core content is that a country should depend on inner accumulation of resource and self-generating power to realize economic flying-off. However, in the unbalanced world system of economic development, it is very difficult to realize economic flying-off for the latecomers if only depends on self accumulating. A conclusion is drawn from parsing the concept of "advantage of backwardness" and probing into the law of economic catching up with and surpassing that the developing countries and areas should depend on not only self inner accumulation but also external power; while it would be hazard to utilize external power. Only turn external power into inner power, could developing countries and areas realize rapid economic flying-off and eliminate risk.The first three chapters of the discourse are about theoretic analysis of "advantage of backwardness". In four chapters from 4 to 7, are about theoretic analysis and demonstration on the law of economic catching up with and surpassing. The research of the law demonstrates the strategic framework, being the application of theory of advantage of backwardness.The first chapter puts stress on theoretical analysis during tracing to the source. Because the theo更多还原