【作者】 李秋义；

【导师】 陈秀方；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 高速铁路是世界铁路的共同发展趋势，并成为铁路现代化的重要标志。为了保证高速列车安全、平稳地运行，高速铁路跨区间无缝线路的稳定性必须有足够的安全储备。高速铁路无缝线路动力稳定性分析及其安全评估是高速铁路跨区间无缝线路的关键技术之一，其研究具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文运用概率统计理论，提出无缝线路动力稳定性的概率分析方法，基于首次超越失效准则分析了无缝线路动力稳定性和及其可靠度，提出我国高速铁路无缝线路稳定性的目标可靠指标建议值，确定了满足预期目标可靠度的允许温升标准。 基于李雅普诺夫意义的概率稳定性概念，结合随机过程跨越理论，提出了无缝线路概率稳定性判断准则。应用概率论和数理统计方法，建立了无缝线路动力稳定性分析系统中的随机不确定性的概率模型。根据我国干线铁路轨道谱，采用三角级数法模拟出干线铁路和准高速铁路轨道不平顺的样本函数；根据秦沈客运专线高速试验段轨检车资料，采用ARMA时间序列模型模拟了高速铁路轨道不平顺随机样本函数；在既有研究资料的基础上模拟出各种速度客车构架人工蛇行波；用随机变量描述道床横向刚度，并进行了随机模拟；将振动理论和稳定理论结合建立系统的分析模型和运动方程；根据Monte—Carlo法编制了车辆—轨道耦合系统随机振动分析程序，进行了无缝线路随机动力响应分析，通过试验对计算模型、计算方法进行了验证。 基于反应过程极值分布最大熵拟合法，提出了无缝线路概率稳定性动力可靠度的拟静力分析方法。对我国干线铁路无缝线路稳定性的可靠指标进行了校准分析，结果是不同曲线半径的稳定性可靠指标不均衡，小半径曲线的可靠指标偏低。根据反应极值最大熵拟合法编制了无缝线路动力稳定性可靠度计算程序，分析了高速铁路无缝线路动力稳定性的可靠度，得到满足目标可靠指标的允许温升。建议我国高速铁路无缝线路稳定性的目标可靠指标定为4.2。 基于反应更新过程模型和随机过程跨越理论，提出了无缝线路稳定性动力可靠度的分析方法，分析了高速铁路无缝线路稳定性动力可靠度，并与随机模拟法、拟静力法的计算结果进行了对比分析。建议高速铁路无缝线路稳定性安全温升标准为60℃。最后，探讨了无缝线路稳定性安全界限的模糊性。 无缝线路动力稳定性概率分析方法的研究为无缝线路的安全设计、安全施工和安全管理提供了科学的理论依据，为无缝线路的概率设计奠定了基础。本文的研究成果对于高速铁路无缝线路设计、施工、养护具有重要指导意义。本文的工作使无缝线路稳定性分析及安全评价由确定性分析走向概率分析，使无缝线路稳定性设计理论提高到一个新的水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 High-speed railway is a common trend for world railway, and become an important sign of railway modernization. In order to guarantee high-speed train running safe and stably, the safety reserve must be enough for the stability of high-speed railway over-section continuously welded rail (CWR) track. The analysis and safety evaluation on the dynamic stability are the key technique of high-speed railway over-section CWR. Studying on a theory for dynamic stability of high-speed railway CWR and a method for safety evaluation is of great theory value and realistic meaning. In this paper, probability concepts are applied to establish the probabilistic analysis method on dynamic stability of high-speed railway CWR. Dynamic stability and its reliability of high-speed railway CWR are analyzed on the base of first-passage failure criterion. This paper aims to give out design reliability index and the safe allowable temperature limits under design reliability index for high-speed railway CWR dynamic stability in china.According to Based on Lyapunov’s mathematical definition of probabilistic stability, the CWR probabilistic stability criterion is proposed on the basis of the first-passage probabilities of stochastic processes. Using probability theory and mathematical statistics, probabilistic model on randomicity of the dynamic stability analysis system are built. By means of trigonometrical progression method and the mainline track spectrum, the sample function of the Chinese mainline railway track random geometric irregularity is simulated. With the data obtained from track geometry inspection car on Qinhuangdao-Shenyang special line for passenger transport and ARMA time series model, the sample function of high-speed railway track random geometric irregularity are simulated. Based on existing literature, the artificial bogie crawl waves at various different speeds are randomly simulated. A stochastic variable model is presented to simulate ballast lateral stiffness.Combining the vibration theory with the stability theory, vehicle-rail dynamic analysis model and equations of motion vehicle-rail system are put forward. By Monte-Carlo simulation method, a program is developed to analyze random vibration of vehicle-rail coupling system. With the help of the above theoretical models and simulation program, the dynamic responses of CWR due to the possible excitation are obtained. The validities of the calculation results is verified by experiments.Applied the maximum entropy calculation method to fit the distribution of extremes for dynamic response processes, a quasi-static analysis method on dynamic reliability of CWR stability is established. By the calibration method, reliability index of current maintenance standard for mainline railway CWR in china is analyzed. An important conclusion that reliability index for different curved radius is different and reliability index of small radius curve is lower than big radius curve is reached. According to the maximum entropy method, a program applied to compute reliability of CWR dynamic stability is worked out and put into practice to analyze reliability of CWR dynamic stability, getting the safety allowable temperature under design reliability index. Suggestion the design reliability index of high-speed railway CWR dynamic stability to be settled 4.2By quoting a renewal process model and first-passage failure criterion, the analysis method of CWR dynamic stability in design reference period is proposed. The reliability of high-speed railway CWR dynamic stability is analyzed. Its result is compared with quasi-static analysis method and random simulation analysis method. It recommend 60 as the safe allowable temperature limits for high-speed railway CWR track. In the end, fuzziness of CWR stability safety limit is discussed.The study of probabilistic analysis methods for CWR dynamic stability analysis provides scientific basis for the designing, the constructing and managing of CWR, and lays a foundation for probabilistic design of CWR. The research achievements更多还原