【作者】 苗齐；

【导师】 钟甫宁；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 种植业区域分工要求在发挥地区比较优势的基础上，提高区域生产专业化水平和区际贸易规模，形成区域之间优势互补的生产结构。改革以来，中国农产品供求关系、技术进步、国际环境的深刻变化推动着种植业生产结构调整进程。市场化改革逐渐解除农业资源优化的体制束缚，使种植业区域结构变动有可能建立在边际改进的效率基础上。本研究为判别这一时期种植业区域结构变动趋势，选择促进区域分工的政策取向提供了依据。 全文分为三个部分，第一部分是问题的提出、理论分析和相关研究成果的回顾。在第二部分概念框架中，构建了完成研究目标的实证分析方法体系。具体研究目标包括三个方面：农作物分品种的区域布局与专业化水平的变化及种植业布局的总体变动趋势；区域生产结构变动与同构程度的变化趋势。第三部分是研究结果、结论和政策启示，最后针对本研究的不足与后续研究进行了方法论探讨。 耕地是种植业的基本生产要素，其利用方向决定着其它物质要素和技术的投入结构，因此，我们采用农作物播种面积作为种植业区域分工和结构变化的衡量指标，时间序列为1980——2000年，农业区域分为地区和省级两个层次。主要研究方法与结论为： 1、采用播种面积比重和生产集中度指标，分析作物布局和主产区的变化。结果表明各种农作物的生产重心有所集中是种植业生产布局变化的主要特征，农业生产布局的变化具有短期的波动性与长期的趋势性。 2、各地区年际间结构变动幅度存在着明显差异，较大幅度但不同方向的结构变动导致了区域结构的变化。从各省较大幅度的年际生产结构变动的时间分布来考察，中国农业生产结构调整集中在1982、1985、1993、2000年4个年份。 3、采用与基期比较的方法消除结构回调因素以后，定比指数的变化表明种植业结构变动具有显著的时间趋势。由此可以推断，中国种植业结构尚未进入相对稳定的时期，农业生产结构在近期内将持续地发生变化，而此间部分地区出现的结构趋同现象不一定证明结构变动的不合理。 4、种植业区域结构差异的变化具有一定的趋势性，各省农业结构差异的变化以趋异为主，粮食生产结构差异变化以趋同为主。粮食作物对结构差异的贡献逐渐下降，经济作物生产结构的区域差异明显扩大。 5、证明了结构调整对中国农业增长作用存在着省份和时期差异，虽然总体上农业增长中的结构贡献较大，但有相当部分的调整是失效的。发达地区结构调整具有较高的效率，而西部地区，特别是生态脆弱地区的调整缺乏率。比较广泛的调整失效预着提高结构调整效率在未来仍然是种植业增长的主要来源。 研究结论启示了为适应种植业面临的新形势，建立稳定的种植业区域分工政策体中国种植业区域分工研究系所要选择的政策取向。 1、减少生产与流通的政策干预，增强市场机制在农业资源配置中的作用，通过结构调整促进农业增长。清除限制资源优化的制度障碍，以市场机制引导资源配置，促进区域分工，不仅降低了政策成本，而且农业与农民都会从中受益。 2、完善国内市场体系及基础设施建设，提高交易效率，扩大贸易规模，降低交易成本和市场风险。建立包括期货市场、批发市场、集散市场的完整的市场体系，加强基础设施建设。建立大宗农产品的期货市场，发挥期货市场的保值和发现远期价格功能，降低市场风险。提高农产品价格预期能力，完善价格信号传导机制，政府对国际市场供求和价格要有科学预期，并及时传给农民，为农民生产决策提供科学指导。 3、实行自由贸易政策，以积极的态度放开农产品市场，实现国内市场与国际市场的有效街接。中国农产品市场与国际市场具有互补性，随着农产品贸易自由化程度的提高，国际市场不再仅仅是中国用以平衡国内需求的一条渠道，而且是实现与国际资源配置接轨的媒介。基本方向是按照比较优势原则，扩大中国具有优势的水果、蔬菜、花卉等产品的出口规模，缩减不具优势产品的生产规模。 4、把区域农业发展与区域经济发展融为一体，使农业发展建立在工农关系协调和可持续的基础之上。我国经济发达地区农业结构调整的效率较高，欠发达地区及生态脆弱地区的结构调整效率较低。在发达地区，资源对市场的敏感程度较高，也更早地接收到国际市场的辐射，这种辐射传递到内陆地区需要一定的时滞。在发达地区发展外向型农业的同时，内陆与边远地区一方面要加强在国内的区际分工，另一方面，要提高农业的可持续能力。在生态脆弱地区，实行退耕修养和移民政策，改善生态条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory of regional specialization of agricultural production tells us that, in order to establish a sound regional production structure, in which every region emploits its own production advantage and is complementary to others, every region should adjust each’s production structure in terms of regional comparative advantage, enhance level of regional specialization, upgrade scale of inter-regional trade. Since Open-reforming, great changes have taken place in the supply and demand of agricultural products home and abroad, at the same time, progress has been made in agricultural technology. All those drive the structure of crops production to adjust. With the deepening of China’s market oriented reform, the control imposed by plan economy on resource optimization is lifted gradually, and this made regional structure of China’s crops production adjusted according to efficiency of marginal improvement possible. This dissertation provides base for determining the trends on the change of regional planting structure, so that government can employ right policy and measures to facilitate regional specialization.The organization of the thesis is as follows. The first section offers the imposing of the issue, theoretical analysis and brief summary of related research. The next section deals with the construction of conceptual framework, i.e. building positive analysis system. There includes three detailed objectives: finding out trends of regional distribution and the level of specialization of every crop, finding out collective trends of crops distribution, finding out trends of regional production structure and the level of structure homology. The third section provides results, conclusion, implication and suggestion to policy making and points out deficiency of the dissertation and methodology for future’s research.Arable land is basic factor for agricultural production, so the usage of the land determines input structure of other factors and the technology it adopted. In this dissertation, we use acreage planted as the variable to reflect regional specialization and the changes of crop structure. Aiming at the crops production of each province and China as a whole, the thesis is implemented from country and province respectively, employing time series data from year 1980 to year 2000.The main methods and conclusion are shown as follows:1. Use ratio of specific crop’s acreage in total acreage and production concentration index to reflect changes of crop distribution and its main production area. The results show that, the concentration of crop production is one of the major features of distribution changes. At the same time, the changes of distribution shows fluctuation in the short run but strong, tendency in the long run.2. There are significant distinctions among the scope of annual structural change. These kinds of changes are enormous but are in different direction and it cause transformation of regional structure. Asto period, great changes took place in year 1982, 1985, 1993 and 2000.3. By comparing with fixed base year, we can avoid the effect of the falling back of structure adjustment. Fixed base index indicates that there is a robust tendency in structure change. It can be inferred that china’s crop structure hasn’t been in a relatively stable state yet. There will be a continuing change of structure in coming period, so structure homology shown in some regions doesn’t necessarily mean that structure change is unreasonable.4. There is certain tendency in regional structure change: provincial structure change shows tendency of divergence, while changing of grain crops structure shows convergence. The contribution of grain crops to structural diversity are decreasing gradually, while regional diversity of cash crops intensified notably.5. It’s proved that structure adjustment’s contributions to China’s agricultural development are provincially and periodically dissimilar. Although as a whole structure adjustment has great contribution to the development of agriculture, quite a更多还原