【作者】 王济干；

【导师】 董增川；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 本文研究的主题是区域水资源的配置问题。针对区域水资源配置中的实际问题，提出了水资源和谐性分析的主要内容、基本思路、主要方法和和谐性的度量，较为全面的阐述了和谐的深刻内涵，给出水资源配置应实现和谐配置的结论。将水资源配置系统划分为水资源自然供给系统、水资源工程管理系统和水资源需求系统三个子系统，用水资源和谐度来衡量三个子系统之间、子系统内部要素之间以及系统与外部环境之间的和谐性。 论述了水资源配置系统的功能。从社会安全、社会文明和社会文化三个方面，研究水资源对社会发展的促进作用，根据模糊评判的方法，得到水资源对社会进步影响为比较重要的结论；从水资源的投入产出和利用效率分析入手，研究水资源对经济发展的推动作用，根据投入产出分析，水资源作为主要中间产品，有较高的感应度和影响力，水资源的投入对经济发展有巨大的拉动力；从涵养地下水、减轻洪涝灾害、水质进化和保持能量平衡四个方面，论述了水资源对生态环境的保护作用。建立了水资源对社会、经济、生态促进作用的评价指标体系，以此可以系统地评价水资源的重要作用。基于水资源对社会、经济、生态的促进和保护作用的研究，提出了水资源配置的目标是追求和谐发展。根据水资源在社会、经济、生态三个方面的综合效益，运用层次分析法计算了水资源配置系统的和谐度。根据水资源配置系统的特点，提出了水资源系统是有自组织性和自适应性的，并对其进行了和谐性分析，确定配置系统的和谐主题，分析配置系统的和谐机制，提出了配置系统的和谐预警对策。 针对水资源和谐配置的柔性特点，运用区间数学的方法，建立了区域水资源多目标区间优化分配模型和水资源配置系统和谐性评判区间分析模型，为解决水资源配置中多目标、非结构化的决策问题，提供了定量分析的方法和手段。针对水资源配置的动态性特点，运用系统分析的理论和方法，从水资源配置系统的自组织性、自适应性和功能效果三个方面分析入手，建立了水资源配置系统的和谐预警模型，便于对水资源配置系统实施预测控制。本文还运用了投入产出分析方法、数据包络分析法、模糊数学、区间数学等方法，具体研究了水资源配置中的问题，得到了相应的计算结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dissertation is focused on the allocation of regional water resources. According to the practical problems in regional water resources allocation, the conception of harmoniousness of water resources allocation is put forward and is explained in width and depth. The water resources allocation system is divided into three subsystems: water supply system, hydraulic engineering and management system, and water demand system. The harmoniousness among the three subsystems, among the main factors in the subsystems and between the system and exterior environments are measured by the degree of harmoniousness of water resources.The function of water resources allocation is discussed. The function of water resources allocation in development of social security, social civilization and social culture is explained, and, by use of the fuzzy evaluation method, a conclusion is drawn that water resources is a comparatively important factor in social development. The function in the promotion of the economic development is studied through analysis on the Investment - Yield Model and efficiency of utilization of the water resources. As a mid - produce, water resources is comparatively sensitive and has a great influence. The function of the water resources in ecosystem environment protection is studied from four aspects: conserving groundwater, mitigating flood disaster, improving water quality, and maintaining energybalance. An assessment index system is designed to estimate the function of water resources allocation in social, economic and ecosystem development. According to the promotion and protection function, the purpose of water resources allocation is to seek harmonious development of society, economy and ecosystem. Based on the synthetical benefits, the degree of harmoniousness of the water resources allocation system is estimated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). According to the characteristics of self- organizing and self - adaptability of the water resources allocation system, the harmoniousness is analyzed, and the main harmoniousness topic and the mechanism of harmoniousness are determined. Based on the research, the warning countermeasure of the water allocation system is designed.On the basis of characteristics of flexibility of harmonious of water resources allocation, a multi - objective regional allocation optimization model and an interval analysis model are established by use of interval mathematics, providing a quantitative method for the solution of multi -objective and non - structural problems in water resources allocation. According to the dynamic characteristics, a harmoniousness warning model is established based on the theory and method of system analysis, considering the entropy degree, self - organizing, self - adaptability and functional effect of the system. Through application of the harmoniousness warning model, some useful decisions can be made. In the dissertation such mathematical tools as Investment - Yield model, Data Enveloped Analysis, Fuzzy Evaluation, and interval analysis method are used.更多还原