【作者】 薛小杰；

【导师】 黄强； 惠泱河；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2002， 博士

【摘要】 基于黄河流域面临的三大水资源问题，提出了三种调控手段，水资源短缺的调控、水灾害调控以及生态环境的调控。结合国家973重点基础研究发展规划项目，本文以解决黄河水资源短缺为基本研究任务，全文共分为三篇，需水预测部分、可再生临界理论研究部分以及分水方案研究部分。其中需水预测最终为多维临界调控模型提供数据基础和边界条件；水资源可再生以及临界控制理论研究为多维临界总控模型提供理论依据；分水方案是各省区科学合理配水的基本依据。因此，本研究具有重要的理论和实践价值。论文取得了以下研究成果： (1)在分析评价了以往需水预测的基本方法的基础上，首次应用遗传算法与神经网络组合的方法进行需水量预测，建立黄河流域遗传神经网络需水预测模型。针对BP算法具有易于陷入局部最小值的缺点，应用改进遗传算法直接以目标函数值作为搜索信息途径，克服神经网络的局部收敛的缺陷。不仅取得了较好的预测结果，也极大的丰富了需水预测的理论与方法。 (2)需水预测结果为：黄河流域在正常来水年份下，2005年缺水12亿m~3，在2010年缺水63亿m~3，在2020年缺水103亿m~3，在2030年缺水127亿m~3。由于生态需水缺乏历史资料，没有进行预测，直接应用“黄河重大问题及对策”的研究成果。在未来四个水平年，黄河缺水问题十分严重，提出只有遵循水资源形成、再生性等客观规律，并对利用、配置等可控制性环节进行有效控制，才能从根本上解 西安理工大学博士学位论文决黄河流域缺水问题。 （3）从水资源可再生的内涵探讨入手，全面系统的分析不同尺度的水资源再生特性、水资源再生率、再生周期等特征量，以及水资源多维空间等基本理论。并对水资源的内涵、水资源承载力、水资源合理配置提出了新的认识。 （4）首次将界壳论引人水资源系统，分析了水资源系统界壳的特征参量，这些控制参量包括界壳开放度、界壳交换率、界壁厚度以及界门大小等，为水资源系统周界控制的定量化研究奠定重要的理论基础。 （5）将控制论引入到水资源研究中，创造性的提出了临界控制及其数学表达，提出以提高农业用水效率为前提的农业用水控制的有效途径，为黄河水量合理分配提供了科学依据。 （6）现行的黄河的水资源分配体制实际是行政分配手段。其存在不少问题，诸如上下游工程分属不同部门，政府指令配水模式难以实施；用水量同比例丰增枯减不利于水资源优化配置和合理利用；政府指令性配水没有引入激励补偿机制等。论文结合黄河的实际从理论上提出了建立水权转让和水市场制度的水量分配办法。 （7）迄今为止还没有一个既可兼顾效益分配指标，又可兼顾落后地区经济发展的通用模型。本章在分析国内外关于黄河水量分配模型优缺的基础上，提出了黄河水量分配的原则，以及具有可操作性的黄河水量分配模型。按权重配水法进行了配水计算，将权重指标分为实时指标和背景指标，计算的分水结果较87分水方案在各分区比例上趋势相似，其中河南和山东配水量增加较明显，这与两省农业灌溉效率指标高有关，其分配结果可供黄河流域水量调度参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on three water resources problem of the Yellow River basin, put forward such three adjustment means as the lack of water resources , water disaster and environment adjustment. Combined with the nation 973 emphases study programming item, according to the basic study mission of resolving the lack of water resources in the Yellow River, this paper is consist of three parts: forecasting of water requirement study on revival critical theory and distribution project of water resources. Thereinto forecasting of water requirement is the datum basic and critical condition of multi-dimension critical adjustment model; revival and critical cybernetics of water resources is its theory gist; distribution project of water resources is basic gist of scientific and rational distribution in every province. So the research has higher theory and practice value, the main conclusions are shown as follows(1) According to analyze anciently means of water requirement forecasting, firstly combined with inherit arithmetic and NN to forecast water requirement, built inherit nerve network water requirement forecasting model in the Yellow River basin. Aim at BP arithmetic shortcoming of tend plunging local minimum value, applied amelioration inherit arithmetic in taking object as the approach of searching information to overcome local convergence of NN. Not only acquired better forecasting results but also enriched theory and means of water requirement forecasting.(2) The forecasting results are: in the normal runoff year of the Yellow River basin, lack of water 12*10 8 m3 in 2005, lack of water 63*10 8 m3 in 2010, lack of water 103*10 8 m3 in 2020, lack of water 127*10 8 m3 in 2030. Because of lack of environment historical datum so straightly applied the results of study on importance problem and countermeasure in the Yellow River. In the future four level years, the problem of water shortage of the Yellow River is very severity, only followed the nature law of water resources formation and revival, controlled water resources using and distribution,radically revolved the problem of water shortage in the Yellow River. (3) Started with discussing revival meaning of water resources, analyzed differ revival characteristic, revival rate and revival period of water resources, and multi-dimension space basic theory of water resources. Put forward new cognition about water resources meaning, water resources bearing capacity and its rational distribution.(4) For the first time introduced JieKe theory in water resources system, analyzed character parameter of water resources system JieKe, included opening degree, exchange rate, thickness and magnitude. Established importance theory foundation for quantify research of water resources system perimeter control.(5) By introducing cybernetics into water resource research, critical cybernation and mathematic representation are presented, at the premise of improving agricultural utilization water efficiency, effective method of agricultural utilization water control is used, which provide scientific ground for rational distribution of Yellow River water.(6) The Yellow River present water resource distribution system is in fact administrative distribution means. It exists many problems, such as upstream and downstream projects belong to different department, which makes government commanding distribution water means difficultly put into effect; the number of water utilization increases and decreases with precipitation in the same rate, which is disadvantageous to water resource optimize distribution and rational utilization; government commanding distribution water does not introduce encourage and compensate mechanism. Water distribution method of establishing water right transfer and water market system are presented in theory combined with the fact of the Yellow River in this paper.(7) So far there is not universal model that possesses benefit distribution index and economy development in the poor area. Based on analyzing Yellow River water distrib更多还原