银行危机论

【作者】 苏同华；

【导师】 潘英丽；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2000， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统的研究了银行危机的演化、银行危机的原因与影响、银行危机的传染效应，对发达国家与发展中国家的银行危机和英、美、日等国的银行全网进行了比较，对于如何完善我国银行安全网提出了建议。 第一章的导言从解释银行与危机的含义入手界定了本文的研究对象，将银行危机定义为：实际或潜在的银行挤兑与银行失败引致银行停止偿还负债或为防止此一情况的出现政府被迫大规模提供援助的情形。国际货币基金组织将金融危机分为银行危机、货币危机、债务危机、系统性金融危机。银行危机是广义的金融危机的一种；如果银行危机导致整个支付系统失灵，并损害了实际经济，银行危机就是狭义的金融危机。 第二章对有史以来的银行危机、银行安全网的演化作了分析，对银行危机理论进行了综述和分析，提出了关于银行危机的5个假说。不同时期的银行危机即有共同点又有不同点。从14世纪的银行危机到当今的银行危机都表现出了不同程度的国际性、传染性，随着银行业务的国际化水平的提高银行危机的国际性、传染性在增强；从18世纪20年代的“南海泡沫”开始到最近的金融危机，银行危机总是与股市危机具有密切联系，而且从30年代开始股市危机、银行危机、货币危机开始共同出现、相互作用，时至今日金融危机的复合性特征更为明显；从19世纪20年代开始到20世纪30年代，银行危机表现出了明显的周期性特征，基本上与经济危机共同出现。不同时期的银行危机的具体原因、出现的频率、持续的时间、产生的影响都不尽相同，这是由不同时期的银行服务的业务对象、经营方式、银行制度的不同和银行经营环境的变化导致的。银行安全网作为以减少银行失败、预防银行危机、处理银行危机为目的的措施与规则。它的演化是在3个层面上进行的：银行、银行业、政府。银行危机在银行业发达、经济增长领先的国家先出现，而银行安全网总是在先爆发银行危机的国家出现，银行危机越严重，银行安全网的出现就越迅速。银行安全网所起到的效果是有限的，它既不能完全避免银行失败，也不能彻底消除银行危机，但银行安全网确实减少了银行失败的数目、降低了银行危机出现的频率、减缓了银行危机对经济的影响。作者认为银行危机的演化推动了对银行危机的研究。银行危机研究的演化与经济研究的进步也表现出了密切关系。在以上两种动力推动下，银行危机研究本身也在进化。但是随着许多国家的银行危机以及其它金融危机的爆发和研究的深入，对银行危机与金融危机进行区分的观点的分歧已经不是应不应该区分而是如何区分的问题了。作者提出解释了银行危机的5种假说，即：行业生命周期假说、产业集中度假说、种群模型、制度变迁假说和管制诱发银行危机假说。行业生命周期假说认为尽管银行业是一个特殊的行业，但是适用于描述和解释大多数行业变迁的行业生命周期假说，在解释银行危机方面也具有一定的适用价值。如果我们把银行危机的范围暂时缩小为大量银行的倒闭，那么银行危机就最有可能在银行业从成长期向成熟期、从成熟期向衰落期过度的时期发生，因而一个国家的银行业一般会爆发2次银行危机。银行业生命周期假说无法解释在银行业的萌芽期、成长期、成熟期的整个演变过程中都会爆发银行危机，而且判断发达国家的银行业70年代以来陷入衰落期尚缺乏更为有力的证据，因为银行业的总资产一直在增加，而且增加速度并未放慢。这一假说还忽略了银行业内的竞争对银行失败、银行危机的影响。作者探讨了产业集中度与银行失败、银行危机的关系。从世界各国的银行业演变的过程看银行业的行业集中度先是不断下降，然后又不断提高的。银行业的集中度的提高只能在银行数达到一定水平时才会开始。运用产业集中度理论可以说明 每个国家的银行业在集中度由低到高的转折期，会出现系统性的银行危机，在行业 集中度不断提高的过程中会不断出现银行失败。银行危机与产业集中度的关系假说 的缺点在于无法解释银行危机周期性出现的原因。作者还借用了生态学中的种群模 型、制度变迁理论解释银行危机的演化：还建立了一个简单的模型来描述解除管制 引起的银行危机。以上几种假说有一个共同的缺点，未能从银行业务自身的特点出 发和宏观经济的波动来探讨银行危机的成因。 作者在第三章对银行危机的原因和影响进行了分析。由于外部风险、银行决策 者的有限信息、有限理性以及银行业务的独特性诀定了任何银行均可能以或高或低 的概率失败，并可能引起银行危机。在银行是主要的融资渠道的国家，银行危机的 爆发会使使实际经济受到较大的影响，实际经济的衰退也会对银行系统产生较大影 响；随着金融发展银行危机的表现形式更为复杂。一般而言，实际经济、货币政策、 财政政策、国际收支均与银行系统具有双向联系，即它们的变化会影响银行系统，。反过来银行系统的情况也会影响上述部门，这是我们分析银行危机的宏观经济原因 和银行危机对宏观经济影响的基础。经济的周期性波更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis covers the evolution of banking crisis,the causes resulting in banking crisis and influences and the contagion effects of it,comparing the banking crisis in developed and developing countries,comparing the banking safety net in Britain,America and Japan. From which the author makes suggestions on how to improve Chinese banking safety net.The introduction in the first chapter limits the object of the study. A banking crisis refers to a situation in which actual or potential bank runs or failures induce banks to suspend the internal convertibility of their liabilities or which compels the government to intervene to prevent this by extending assistance on a large scale. IMF divided financial crisis into currency crisis,banking crisis,debt crisis and systematic crisis. In a broad sense,banking crisis is one of financial crisis. And it just means financial crisis while it leads to the disorder of the whole payment system and the decreases of real economy.In the second chapter it analyzes the evolution of banking crisis and banking safety net and the theory on banking crisis. The author makes five hypotheses on banking crisis. These hypotheses are industry life cycle hypothesis,industry concentration ratio hypothesis,chaos model,and the evolution of institution hypothesis and regulation hypothesis. There exist common and different characteristics between banking crisis in different period of the history. The banking crisis from 14 century to now fully show their international and contagion characters which are increasing with the development of the international banking business. There is close relation between banking crisis and stock market crisis from South Sea Bubble in!720’ to the latest financial crises. The compound feature and interaction of the different types of financial crisis becomes more obvious since 1930’.In the third chapter the author studies the causes and influences of banking crisis. Any bank may fail because of different external risks,the bankers’ limited information and rationality and the specific characteristics of banking business. The failure of a bank could further lead to banking crisis because of bank runs and overlending. There are connections between banking and real economy,monetary policy,and fiscal policy,and international balance of payment. The growth and cycle of economy may lead to banking crisis;banking crisis may also lead to misallocation and underutilization of resouces,and thus to losses of real output. We use the ratio of banking crisis’ cost to Gross Domestic Product to measure the severity of banking crisis.In the fourth chapter the author researches the contagion effect of different types of financial crisis. In an economy,banking crisis may induce currency crisis,debt crisis;currency crisis may also induce banking crisis,debt crisis;the financial crisis of one economy may induce the same or different types of financial crisis in the other economy. The asymmetric information of agents in different financial markets make stock market crisis lead to banking crisis and currency crisis,then lead to debt crisis.In the next two chapters the author compares banking crisis in developed and developing countries,the banking safety net in main industrial countries;studies thepossibility of forecasting banking crisis and the measures to control banking crisis. The banking crises were mainly caused by inferior asset quality of banking in developed countries and there were no bank runs. Among the developing countries,large withdrawals of deposit and runs on banks have been more frequent than developed countries. The frequencies of banking crisis in developing countries are higher than developed countries. The safety provided by the banking safety net may increase adverse selection and moral hazard problems and decrease the efficiency of banking. Appropriate bank failures may be beneficial to the safety and efficiency of banking at the same time. The author concludes that we can not forecast accurately the banking crisis in a long run,in a short run it may更多还原